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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


40/70 Benchmark
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I'm taking 70 -80/ 30 -20  blend of the operational Euro/GFS for this Monday through the middle of the week ...something like that. 

Both the 00z and 06z deterministic GFS solutions took a pretty hard step in the direction of the operational Euro's recent notions of non-hydrostatic hgt anomalies more E ~ along 100 -90W, as opposed to the previous notions of packing the -PNA ridge response back west toward what looked like a large error +PNAP orientation.  

I'm including more of these newer GFS trends in deference to climatology ... But also because there is 'panache' to recent hemisphere, as well as numerical realization combined, that argue for more jet exertion near the lower Ferrel latitudes - likely associated with early seasonality.  So, slicing jetlets SE out of Quebec isn't a terrible idea ... perhaps delaying a Euro solution some.  It's just that the GFS biases in this direction in the D5-8 range ... as far as I can tell, at all times.  Makes that tricky.  The GFS is also new to this idea of more -pNAP structure so it may still be 'waking up'

With an 80/20 blend (E/G), does send an anomalous warm look into the OV/MA/NE regions.  I don't know if that description's 'oh-my-godness' resonates with the present Kevin spin machine or not ... but, it doesn't look very autumn like. It looks down right summery. 

Noted that the operational Euro offers what looks like near historic high temperatures ..perhaps the 20th(Tuesday).  But I don't know what records are in the area.  Plus, this is D7 so..

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good thing Wiz tracked this for 7 days.

Looks to work out just as the thinking was a week ago. Should see multiple line segments or clusters develop this afternoon with damaging wind potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them produce a decent little path of wind damage. Looks like we destabilize quite well today with more than sufficient/strengthening shear. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha... I looked at the more sat trends and just thought, " ...not sure what guidance had for cloud products but this sucks"

I think guidance was predominately mostly cloudy but had some partly sunny during the afternoon. I guess if anything maybe we're clearing a bit more quickly. We'll see if it has any impact on temperatures. Days like today with such rich llvl moisture an extra degree or two on temperatures can give a decent boost to CAPE. Wouldn't be shocked if maybe we can pull off a 2000 MLCAPE contour 

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think guidance was predominately mostly cloudy but had some partly sunny during the afternoon. I guess if anything maybe we're clearing a bit more quickly. We'll see if it has any impact on temperatures. Days like today with such rich llvl moisture an extra degree or two on temperatures can give a decent boost to CAPE. Wouldn't be shocked if maybe we can pull off a 2000 MLCAPE contour 

What's it like there now?

I can see the anvil canopy escaping E pretty quickly, but I'm not seeing a very convincing trend that what it reveals underneath will allow a lot of heating.. but, sometimes the sat can look worse than ground truth -

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