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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That cutoff will be all over the place on models.

It's a barely a cut-off ...    Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less.   We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here?  we're using it to ignite a 2"   24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? 

Plus the moving around as you say?

I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in.  I still think the whole thing could normalize further. 

Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over.  

I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on.  It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there.  The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. 

Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way.  And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front.  It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.  

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Frost. What did they get, like a month long growing season lol?

Might not be far off.  Our shortest frost-free season in Fort Kent was only 44 days in 1978, as parts of ours and our neighbors' garden got singed on July 31.  The late August added a hard freeze, with mornings at 28 and 29.

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a barely a cut-off ...    Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less.   We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here?  we're using it to ignite a 2"   24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? 

Plus the moving around as you say?

I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in.  I still think the whole thing could normalize further. 

Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over.  

I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on.  It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there.  The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. 

Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way.  And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front.  It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.  

There is definitely a signal for a narrow  axis to get heavy rains based on what you said above. Just has that look. My guess is probably Monday as the boundary sets up and doesn’t move much. 

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