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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wind won't be the story with this one. 

 

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed 

Wait. With all the forecasted precipitation, won't take much wind to bring down trees and cut transmission lines. Widespread outages for days. I went 6 days without on just a brush-by a few years ago.   

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42 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

 

Wait. With all the forecasted precipitation, won't take much wind to bring down trees and cut transmission lines. Widespread outages for days. I went 6 days without on just a brush-by a few years ago.   

You are correct for things like power and trees.  I don’t foresee major structural stuff.    But I know squat about these things. 

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love the slobbering over the euro. Can’t wait for weenies to see a 980 low tucked into MVY only to get rug pulled out. 

Euro is half the man he used to be, but come on now…the gfs will always blow until they tear it down and rebuild.

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21 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

1-2% ?

Thanks, we had until today to cancel our reservations without losing any money. Seems like the worst we’ll get is some showers on Sunday and early Monday.

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

My sister lives about 20 miles inland from Tampa , she says she's plenty far enough inland. I don't argue or disagree to keep things peaceful.

Seriously I hope no harm comes to her or her property or anyone she's close to

She’s probably right . Throw on some shutters and her house should be fine . The other concern is does her neighborhood flood 

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lol you are on a tear against the ECMWF.

 

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro is half the man he used to be, but come on now…the gfs will always blow until they tear it down and rebuild.

It’s had a lot of fails with various things this summer. I was the biggest euro humper out there, but man I feel like it’s just not the same. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some odd posts. Kids will stress you sometimes lol .We know the gfs is awful and many tropical models have input based on it 

It’s really not that bad. It’s had a ton of wins with tropicals around the globe. 
 

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

It’s had a lot of fails with various things this summer. I was the biggest euro humper out there, but man I feel like it’s just not the same. 

It definitely isn’t Dr. No of the past when if it showed something in the mid-ranges, that was always the way to lean.  I wonder if it was because the Euro was that advanced of a model or the GFS was just that bad, ha.

If it’s tucked in on a nor’easter, you can no longer expect that. Maybe the atmosphere was more conductive to those events back then, but whenever it would be the western most track in coastals it was right… now it’s whatever model is further NE :lol:.

I agree, the Euro isn’t what it once was… or was is it the GFS has just closed the gap?

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It definitely isn’t Dr. No of the past when if it showed something in the mid-ranges, that was always the way to lean.  I wonder if it was because the Euro was that advanced of a model or the GFS was just that bad, ha.

If it’s tucked in on a nor’easter, you can no longer expect that. Maybe the atmosphere was more conductive to those events back then, but whenever it would be the western most track in coastals it was right… now it’s whatever model is further NE :lol:.

I agree, the Euro isn’t what it once was… or was is it the GFS has just closed the gap?

Gfs closed the gap. 

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9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

CAT 2 seems NBD for FL, IMO.  Even the rain seems to just sink into the limestone they don't seem to ever flood 

Cat 2 is NBd generally. Building codes now will laugh it off. The issue would be surge perhaps in Tampa should it make landfall near or just NW.

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