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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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Maybe its me, but I just don't see this as being worthy of anyone's time.....I think it is, and has been pretty clear that the odds of a major US impact are pretty low. The main threat was when it looked like it may cause flooding in PR, but now even that is mitigated with the southern track.

Its a boring year...I get it. But I guess more and more with age I would rather not allocate my time toward tracking a lost cause-

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this can still be intact when it gets past Hispaniola, it's going to intensify. I'm not sold on a quick boot like the GFS has at the moment. I would favor a recurve, but I think something hitting the US is not like a 5% or less chance either.

I've always felt like a goal post track was the most likely scenario....one of those deals where nothing happens, but Steve and Pickles will whack it to waves. Pickles will probably chase the waves.

Waves=cirrus in my mind.

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol

They’re all trying to capture/garner views…so that’s how they keep Joe-public interested, and not have folks tune out. Every outlet does it unfortunately…they want the business. 
 

I agree as we get older/wiser, I too won’t waste time on a junk system that’s gonna be a fish storm/miss.  Check in a couple times a day, and see if anything has changed, and then its sianara.  

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They’re all trying to capture/garner views…so that’s how they keep Joe-public interested, and not have folks tune out. Every outlet does it unfortunately…they want the business. 
 

I agree as we get older/wiser, I too won’t waste time on a junk system that’s gonna be a fish storm/miss.  Check in a couple times a day, and see if anything has changed, and then its sianara.  

I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward.

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What these folks like the tweeter above fail to tell you is that, while yes....a US LF, while unlikely, remains very possible.....it would more than likely be as a TS or POSSIBLY a very minimal hurricane if it were to track that far west. It would be one of these "rain-maker" deals.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward.

100% agree. Well said. 

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this can still be intact when it gets past Hispaniola, it's going to intensify. I'm not sold on a quick boot like the GFS has at the moment. I would favor a recurve, but I think something hitting the US is not like a 5% or less chance either.

Good post . Ya past Hispaniola if it can get a LLC going or maintain one and not go over Cuba you have the bath water of SE Bahamas . We pray As things currently look favorable early next week 

Is the steering going to be very weak and or could you see any west Atlantic ridding push this into Florida - potentially 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya cmc settles it 

Lol…I didn’t mean I’m basing anything off that junk model, but just being realistic, that any chance this hits the east coast is very slim. Doesn’t mean it’s a zero chance, but it’s very low.   But I hope I’m completely wrong.  I mean I’d Love to have some excitement in the form of a tropical entity threaten the area. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…I didn’t mean I’m basing anything off that junk model, but just being realistic, that any chance this hits the east coast is very slim. Doesn’t mean it’s a zero chance, but it’s very low.   But I hope I’m completely wrong.  I mean I’d Love to have some excitement in the form of a tropical entity threaten the area. 

I didn't even realize that CEM2 was the GEM....I guess that is why he thought that, if it is....

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Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. 

Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much.

We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds of a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently. 

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