MJO812 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 6z eps posted in the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 Still seems like a largely ignorable tropical entity IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still seems like a largely ignorable tropical entity IMO. They're ignorable until they're not. The weaker this stays now the more likely it'll get further west. Models seem pretty bullish on development down the line even if it plows into Hispaniola. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 It’s still a little early to be terribly invested. This is far from a lock in bringing continental US impacts and it’ll probably be that way for a few days. Can’t beat the model drama though, especially in this season of bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They're ignorable until they're not. The weaker this stays now the more likely it'll get further west. Models seem pretty bullish on development down the line even if it plows into Hispaniola. 1) It must remain weak enough to avoid recurving, while still maintaining its overall integrity, a task which is made a bit taller by the fact that a weaker, more westward tracking system is more likely to interact with Hispaniola. 2) The way I see this is that there is a pretty narrow path to major US impacts considering that a it must thread the need in limiting interaction with the Greater Antilles, while also avoiding re-curvature. I feel like the ceiling for US impact is a TS, with perhaps a slight risk of a minimal cane....which fits my definition of ignorable. I know others may disagree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s still a little early to be terribly invested. This is far from a lock in bringing continental US impacts and it’ll probably be that way for a few days. Can’t beat the model drama though, especially in this season of bore. Yes, been saying I'll decide once and for all whether to really follow it or not this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 I’m thoroughly ashamed to say it, but at the very least I just want to see some big weenie op runs. I was almost a new man at work yesterday after that GFS run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m thoroughly ashamed to say it, but at the very least I just want to see some big weenie op runs. I was almost a new man at work yesterday after that GFS run. Same....like I said, it felt good viewing a model for the first time since early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 I can't hear the name Fiona without thinking about the movie Euro Trip and the song "Scotty Doesn't Know." I will have the song in my head until this storm goes away. It also features one of the greatest cameos ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Looks like Bermuda gets slammed on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 The season of bore goes on….just horrid. I guess this is how it feels too I’ve in San Diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: The season of bore goes on….just horrid. I guess this is how it feels too I’ve in San Diego. How can you say that at this stage? So much left unanswered about this whole setup. I think it’s clear a lot is still in play. Gulf to OTS and everything in between. Also this could even get shredded by the islands. Wait and see with lots of surprises ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The season of bore goes on….just horrid. I guess this is how it feels too I’ve in San Diego. Shall we talk about how my grass has resurrected remarkably since the demise of Stein instead? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Shall we talk about how my grass has resurrected remarkably since the demise of Stein instead? Start the thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Shall we talk about how my grass has resurrected remarkably since the demise of Stein instead? Some say it isn't over yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 CMC takes it into New Orleans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC takes it into New Orleans! Cool. Newfoundland to New Orleans. The goalposts are narrowing. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Diggiebot said: How can you say that at this stage? So much left unanswered about this whole setup. I think it’s clear a lot is still in play. Gulf to OTS and everything in between. Also this could even get shredded by the islands. Wait and see with lots of surprises ahead. I know…you’re correct. Just felt like venting a bit. Sorry for the downer post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know…you’re correct. Just felt like venting a bit. Sorry for the downer post lol. People are desperate for something meteorologically intriguing to take place....duck for cover when OTS is favored lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: People are desperate for something meteorologically intriguing to take place....duck for cover when OTS is favored lol OTS is probably the favorite. Worst case would be a teaser that adjusts OTS. That’s been the way lately I feel like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: OTS is probably the favorite. Worst case would be a teaser that adjusts OTS. That’s been the way lately I feel like. Yea, I feel like through the goal posts if it develops appreciably.. I don't think its much of a threat to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Euro still pretty far south, south of PR into/over Hispanola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Keeps correcting SW . Gonna need to stop ASAP or buh bye E coast anything. High sheer favors this to be NBD for east coast imo (via staying weak and more west Next 72 hours ) . Maybe it can correct more SW and make a run for GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Jesus, the Euro’s caving to the Canadian. I kid, but that’s a significant shift for this model. Shows how sensitive this one is and yes, OTS is still favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Thing puked its LLC out LOL. I could buy a srly track if it's a mess in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thing puked its LLC out LOL. I could by a srly track if it's a mess in a few days. Would be pretty funny if in keeping to the theme of an underwhelming season, this one becomes a US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 EPS kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 12z yesterday 00z 12z today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 I like using H5 vorticity. That brings it inland on the GA/SC border to just west of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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