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Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion


Carvers Gap
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22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm thinking mainly warm phases until SST'S warm further East. However, low amp may be the case, and other Drivers (east aligned Nina Ridge and HLB) may trump. 

That is my thinking.  The Nina pattern around the dateline(cool SSTs) does not favor convection.  Now, if the Nino manages to be slightly ahead of schedule or there is some warm upwelling, that could help us during the second half of winter.   Either way, I think we see some help on the Atlantic side and maybe a very jostled strat most of the winter.  I would not be surprised to see some sort of Alaska origin, cold air train.  Basically a high in the Aleutians(not good), but AN heights over Greenland and HB.  That would send the cold air down the Rockies.  It would modify as it slides eastward under the Greenland/HB block but might be cold enough.  Storm track would be a sneaky bonus.

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We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday.  Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region.

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4 hours ago, John1122 said:

We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday.  Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region.

Yep, correlation is pretty decent. 

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Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611501442549c53fa390b

Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. 

 

GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. 

 

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A few days ago that was severe coming up from the Gulf. Now it's a clipper. Trends like that are bullish cold, but I remain pessimistic. Anytime I'm optimistic it's a jinx.

Getting serious, two streams were always progged for Thanksgiving. Appears the northern one is now dominant vs previous southern. The obligatory Midwest winter storm for Thanksgiving is now forecast.

If that holds, I'll be in the Southeast Mountains thread. :ski:

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611501442549c53fa390b

Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. 

 

GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. 

 

A little more cold ahead of that here and it could wind up being a decent snow storm. Still maybe a couple inches in Valley's with a decent amount up high.

    

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611501442549c53fa390b

Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. 

 

GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. 

 

12z GFS has that now almost exactly.  If real, that is a pretty significant upslope snow event.

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Just to tag onto my post above.  Blocking over Greenland is not far enough southwest to fight the upcoming PAC pattern which is nearly opposite of optimal for cold in the East.  It is not a classic Greenland block on the GEFS.   Need it centered closer to the Davis Straits.  Otherwise, Michigan benefits and cold doesn’t press.

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53 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

You -NAO lovers are gonna love the 6z GFS:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76112031febdb27698ca20

 

Of course it is still waaayyyy out there. 

That is the textbook look we need.  Ensemble is continuing the meh look from the past several runs which sends a ridge into the middle of the country and builds eastward.  This could be a time where the operational may lead the way.  It seems like the GFS operational does handle early season cold better.

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it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though. 

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just to tag onto my post above.  Blocking over Greenland is not far enough southwest to fight the upcoming PAC pattern which is nearly opposite of optimal for cold in the East.  It is not a classic Greenland block on the GEFS.   Need it centered closer to the Davis Straits.  Otherwise, Michigan benefits and cold doesn’t press.

Yeah, exactly the problem. Hoping it wraps back and presses on down. Could be the Pac jet fighting it from pressing on down on ensembles. Da** Nina.

       Masiello thinks late Nov. Early Dec. will mirror 1975 until the MJO moves into p. 7 and traverses thru 8-1 and flips pattern to cold snowy East. Obviously he feels confident it will make it to cold Phases. He also thinks HLB will be in place. 

     You know my thoughts regarding the MJO.  IF a strong PAC Jet gets established, it'll be hard to alter with help from MJO even in cold phases at low amplitude. Let's hope Masiello is right and my old , rusty has been arse is wrong irt the MJO. 

       

 

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12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, exactly the problem. Hoping it wraps back and presses on down. Could be the Pac jet fighting it from pressing on down on ensembles. Da** Nina.

       Masiello thinks late Nov. Early Dec. will mirror 1975 until the MJO moves into p. 7 and traverses thru 8-1 and flips pattern to cold snowy East. Obviously he feels confident it will make it to cold Phases. He also thinks HLB will be in place. 

     You know my thoughts regarding the MJO.  IF a strong PAC Jet gets established, it'll be hard to alter with help from MJO even in cold phases at low amplitude. Let's hope Masiello is right and my old , rusty has been arse is wrong irt the MJO. 

       

 

Remind me of late Nov/early Dec 1975.....

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though. 

Cosgrove noted on FB just a few mins ago that he thinks the morning operational runs might have been in error w/ re: to the absence of snow and a storm.

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16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Remind me of late Nov/early Dec 1975.....

Mild late Nov. but quickly progressed cold trough in East. This maps centered Nov. 29. Check out Dec. 2. Trough already in East. 

https://vortex.plymouth.edu/wxp/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1975&mm=11&dd=29&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=912x650&pg=web

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is a doozy of a solution.  That is rain changing to snow in the northwest quadrant.  Mountains would get hammered.

Yeah, wouldn't be surprised parts of the area get hammered. 

    I've saw some heavy Snowfall on the SSW side of a LP with a negatively tilted Trough.  In almost all cases, more than modeled. 

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