Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion


Carvers Gap
 Share

Recommended Posts

The NAM has definitely trying to honk on a flurry or two for me. Are you atop a mt. down near Soddy-Daisy @Knoxtron? I would be down for what the NAM is selling. 

MRX is kinda-sorta interested in the next system: 

The main question with this system will be
temperatures at the onset of precip Tuesday morning. It will be a
race between precip arrival and warm advection bringing surface
temps above freezing. Model soundings show a prominent warm nose
that suggests some freezing rain potential for a brief period in
northern sections early Tuesday, but model differences in precip
onset timing make this very uncertain (NAM being faster with the
northward spread of precip than the GFS). For now, the forecast will
mention snow or a rain/snow mix early Tuesday morning for the
mountains, SW VA/NE TN and the northern Cumberland Plateau. Overall,
the potential impact appears low at this time. Any precip with this
system ends Tuesday night.

 

I'll take a wintry mix too! This Tuesday-Wednesday system would have some better potential for NE TN and SW VA, except for the dreaded Lakes low, messing with the mid levels. But it at least looks like western areas Arkansas and NW TN will get a shot of snow again. 

 

I'm slightly interested in the Fridayish time frame. Euro and GFS show a jet streak and broad vorticity advection, but at this time there's nothing upstream (i.e. blocking) to amplify it enough to throw precip back into our area:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611354331d451f120c4f5

 

A couple EPS members show accumulating snow for Elizabethton (using that city since it is in the far eastern part of the forum area), but several show snow falling, even if only flurries. Several GEFS members show a general 1-3" for Elizabethton too. If that were to happen, if might look something like this: 

 

EPS member 49:

ndn4KEg.png

To be fair that is only one member, but it is an early one this year, and I think even though it isn't likely, it is plausible, given what happened with this system that's coming through today:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611f0288d95bccc9fae71

The above is a 16 frame gif of the trend of the GFS for 18z today. You can tell the mid-upper level pattern isn't changing too much overt he 16 runs (maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I read the thickness lines on the map), but as we get closer to verification, the model is like "oh, maybe there will be some precip. there and, oh yeah, we'll move it a little bit NW too." 

it's not like it's that unusual for precip to make it back a little further NW that models show, but ever situation is unique and this could be a whole lot of nothing. 

Webb also thinks there's a shot, (at least for western NC and S. VA) so something to keep an eye on as a warm up for the season:

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The NAM has definitely trying to honk on a flurry or two for me. Are you atop a mt. down near Soddy-Daisy @Knoxtron? I would be down for what the NAM is selling. 

 

Yeah, wife and I moved from Knoxville to the Plateau just outside Soddy-Daisy at an elevation of 2100', really hoping we see a little more snow than we did in Knoxville!  Being up in the clouds is a new experience for me, it is a very strange feeling as an avid weather watcher ha

Thanks for sharing! Gonna take some time to shake off the warm nose PTSD Sure looks like the GFS wants a warmup in about 10 days, only to be reloading the cold back our way around day 15 :shiver:

 

 

Nice little wind gust and temps are finally dropping into the 40s at the moment, stayed in the mid 50s since last night.
House Weather Station

234.jpg

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We were in Indianapolis foe the past four days for Marching Band Nationals.  Cross country running season preceded that!  Now, it is time for a break.  
 

When we arrived the temp was 75!  Prelims were at Lucas Field and the temps outside for our walk down were hot! 
 

Two days later moderate snow was falling.  We ended up with 2-3” of the white stuff.  Nearly the same thing occurred last year.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48.

Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving.

The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. 

I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments. 

image.png.4d6813601f67b627c59878415619bacf.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48.

Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving.

The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. 

I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments. 

image.png.4d6813601f67b627c59878415619bacf.png

I have noticed we are seeing signs that the NAO and AO are going into more blocking heading into December...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

In the LR, it seems like as we lose the EPO, the NAO starts to build.  Been a while since I have seen that type of good fortune.

Yeah no kidding.  Looks like blocking really setting in over the top and in the NAO regions.  The Pacific doesn't look great but I think the pattern continues to evolve into something more favorable as we head into December for sure.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah no kidding.  Looks like blocking really setting in over the top and in the NAO regions.  The Pacific doesn't look great but I think the pattern continues to evolve into something more favorable as we head into December for sure.

I saw where Cosgrove in his Sat wx update mentioned there are some similarities to  NovDec 83, 93, 95, and 13.  
 

Sorry, I should have referenced your NAO discussion above when I posted earlier.  Good find.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw where Cosgrove in his Sat wx update mentioned there are some similarities to  NovDec 83, 93, 95, and 13.  
 

Sorry, I should have referenced your NAO discussion above when I posted earlier.  Good find.

Yeah I saw that as well. This may be one of the more legitimate blocking patterns for us in a bit. Hey at least we have something to track currently and not waiting until January like last year.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I saw that as well. This may be one of the more legitimate blocking patterns for us in a bit. Hey at least we have something to track currently and not waiting until January like last year.

Man it is like someone just flip the lights off for summer.  Record highs last Monday.  Snow in the mountains over the weekend.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting line up of convection in the western Pac:

kAv6C5i.png

 

The majority of the tropical convection is still in what we would call phase 4 on the MJO RMM plots, but last time I looked a few days ago the whole tropical Pac was pretty empty. Maybe we can get some of that to hang around while the MJO wave slowly percolates eastward? Might help facilitate some of that blocking y'all been talking about. 

GFS pushes it even further east to the central Pac over the next few days:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611666286a9c2e18158a6

Euro does the same, but it eventually interacts with storms N. of Hawaii:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ca4c61ed611a00707c

Of course it could also be too early in the season for any of this to matter, but that's all I have while we wait to see how all this evolves over the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not totally 100% sold on fighting a crappy Pac just yet. Now, I may be 90% sold on it, but not 100%. I want to see what happens if the MJO wave can catch up to some of the convection in the Pacific. I suspect by this time next month the tale will be told. 

Seems like around this time for the past couple of years like I notice some convection in the better parts of the Pac and then it will just fizzle out. Could be that will happen in this instance too. One of the mets in the general forecasting part if the bigger forum seemed to think there was also a chance that the dying La Nina might allow for the MJO to make it to the better phases, at least later in the winter, since it had a strong pass this last time. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convection is trying to get into better (for cold) West Pac phases. However when the only Invest is in the Indian ocean, I say the muddled tie goes to the warm signal Indo Subcontinent. 

Keep in mind my job here is Devil's Advocate; so, I could be wrong. Except I'll be right in southeast Tenn.

abpwsair.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...