Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion


Carvers Gap
 Share

Recommended Posts

17 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

If I'm not mistaken cool and dry conditions once in October are considered ideal for fall foliage. Display wise we may all be in for a treat. So long as those reds oranges and yellows aren't flames.

Yeah, considering if it's not hot with it and if September wasn't dry. My location was received about half the average for September so, hopefully won't affect them too much. Although,It has some as some leaves are brown, particularly on edges. Maples are coloring up good so far. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some signs that a fairly stout(but is it long lasting?) PNA ridge is about to form with and ensuing downstream eastern trough later this month.  Still a bit early for the early winter La Nina climatology to kick-in, so we'll see.  It is showing up on ensembles pretty consistently and starting to show somewhat sporadically on operational runs.  But it looks "not warm."  Trough is also in the Aleutians which tele connects well to cold here.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The wx temp wise has been perfect.  Only thing wrong is only a little over half inch of rain since Sept. 1st here.  That is trouble leading into the season of leaves falling.  Add in the much lower humidity with cooler temps.   From wet to dry just like shutting off a valve.  

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

The wx temp wise has been perfect.  Only thing wrong is only a little over half inch of rain since Sept. 1st here.  That is trouble leading into the season of leaves falling.  Add in the much lower humidity with cooler temps.   From wet to dry just like shutting off a valve.  

We were in Clarksville Saturday more middle school state XC championships.  Pretty amazing how dry it is there.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gonna have to read my comment today in the Winter Spec Thread for this to make sense.  The hybrid coastal/inland snow set-up is clearly apparent on the 18z GFS late.  No idea if that verifies, but the potential is there.  It is not unprecedented.  I remember @tnweathernuthaving to trudge through snow to get to the South Carolina game one year....snow in South Carolina!!!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Pain I want more Summer

ec-fast_z500a_us_10.png

 

Yeah, Models continue to advertise that fairly consistently. Reminds me of October '89 somewhat. Snowshowers all day the 20th with off and on dustings at my home in Pennington gap then. 

      That November and December was cold. December record cold. Pattern flipped very last day of that Month to cold west/warm east for rest of Winter followed by a cold Spring, particularly April. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a temporary trough amplification in the East, a transient(maybe 5-10 ridge out West), and then a more permanent trough in the East for November if the "shoulder season" Euro Weeklies are accurate.  You all know the rules on that.  That pattern would bring early snows to the mountains and snow showers to the valleys.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like a temporary trough amplification in the East, a transient(maybe 5-10 ridge out West), and then a more permanent trough in the East for November if the "shoulder season" Euro Weeklies are accurate.  You all know the rules on that.  That pattern would bring early snows to the mountains and snow showers to the valleys.

Yeah so far from the end of September through current the pattern has been remarkable.  Reminds me of the patterns some 15 to 20 years ago.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Very familiar pattern on the LR GFS w/ a Hudson Bay Block but crappy Pacific.

Yeah, a -PNA pattern looking pretty likely to setup for a while. Hopefully Pattern will revert back to dominant+PNA in November and we can get blocking in conjunction. 

     May wind up with a 10-11 type Nina Winter. No big Snows but cold with quite a bit of nickle and dime events. Had a month solid of snow cover. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/12/2022 at 10:18 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, a -PNA pattern looking pretty likely to setup for a while. Hopefully Pattern will revert back to dominant+PNA in November and we can get blocking in conjunction. 

     May wind up with a 10-11 type Nina Winter. No big Snows but cold with quite a bit of nickle and dime events. Had a month solid of snow cover. 

Last night's Weeklies and 12z GEFS seem to signal just a temporary crappy Pacific set-up (TCPSu) vs (PCPSu...permanently crappy Pacific).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Last night's Weeklies and 12z GEFS seem to signal just a temporary crappy Pacific set-up (TCPSu) vs (PCPSu...permanently crappy Pacific).

Yeah, sure hope they're right Buddy. Always worrisome to get a -PNA during a Nina however. Sometimes hard to dislodge, particularly if that Nina enhanced PAC Ridge sets up strong.

      If we can have a +PNA in place as the -NAO is still going, could be some early snows for sure. Actually, yesterday's EPS was contrary to the Op Euro irt ridge east/trough west . 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

GFS keeps trying to brew something up around Halloween.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

 

zr_acc.us_ov.png

Fits our climatology fairly well.  Seems like we have seen our first snow storm around halloween about 1/5 years.  When I was a kid in Knoxville, that was unheard of.  However, of late, early season storms have not been uncommon for the mountains.  The GFS has been sniffing something out during that time frame for several days.   It will be interesting to see if other modeling picks it up as it sits at 240h right now.  I bet if we look back, the GFS might have had this from the word "go."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I seem to recall snow around this time of year in 1995 but it was during the evening/overnight rather than during daylight hours. 

End of October/early November it's much more common. In 2014 we had a few inches Halloween night into November 1st. 1993 we had 3 inches on Halloween afternoon into early evening. We got snow from Sandy in 2013 on the 23rd I believe. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

I seem to recall snow around this time of year in 1995 but it was during the evening/overnight rather than during daylight hours. 

End of October/early November it's much more common. In 2014 we had a few inches Halloween night into November 1st. 1993 we had 3 inches on Halloween afternoon into early evening. We got snow from Sandy in 2013 on the 23rd I believe. 

Yeah, the 25th in 1995 it sleeted and snow showered that afternoon.

     We had 2" Halloween '93 and 2" next morning. It snowed all day on Halloween but much of it didn't stick. Had it all stuck there'd been a couple inches more. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...