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August 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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DeKalb officially ended up with 4.3" over about 30 hours from Sunday ~4AM to Monday ~10AM. Biggest rain event since I moved here a few years ago, and totals northwest were far higher.

It's another under- or impoperly-modeled nocturnal LLJ event to add to a growing list this year, reminiscent of 2011. The GFS and the ECMWF were both poor, displacing the axis precipitation a hundred or more miles north just a few hours out, predicting a few tenths for locations that got nearly a foot of rain. (The mesoscale models managed it better as far as placement but still undermodeled the totals by a lot)

 

 

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The high-res Canadian did pretty decent with this.  From what I've seen it's been the best short-term model this season for placement of convective events.

ARW/ARW2 seemed to do the best. HRDPS and RGEM in second. GGEM/CMC best of the globals. The NAM, FV3 and the rest of the globals (and their ensembles) far behind that. GFS probably in dead last - forecasting 0.1" for a city that got a foot of rain in the ensuing 36 hours. I wish the forecasting of LLJ-driven events was just a little better - they have historically produced the most severe/acute summer flood events in this part of the country and they still are just not modeled well at all. Same issue a decade+ ago. Convection is hard to model well, but the globals are still far away.

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Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.

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Overcast most of the day, and only made it to 71.  A few sprinkles the past hour or so as well.  Almost a little taste of Fall, especially with preseason football on TV lol.

Saw what I'm pretty sure was a bobcat on the way home earlier just off I-88.  Didn't think we had any of those around here.  Definitely way too big to be a tom cat, and was definitely a cat of some kind.  

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3 hours ago, Harry said:

Never thought I would see the day I would have to wear a jacket in the first part of August but that day has arrived. 50s most of the afternoon after the rain arrived. High only made it to 62 and if that holds it will be a new record. Old was 63.. 

I checked out the BTL obs... brutal stuff for this time of year.

Feel fortunate that it got into the 70s here.

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Didn't realize how cool it was in the northeastern sub.  Quite different around here today, as it felt pretty toasty.  Hit 86 and had dews in the mid 70s.

Was pretty depressing this evening watching the towering cumulus above feebly attempt to build upwards into something more.  Atmosphere didn't have enough mojo this afternoon/evening to get it done.  SPC's 2% nader risk was a bit optimistic lol.  Tough stretch for those peeps.

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NWS 7 day doesn’t have a high above 79 here west of Chicago taking us into 8/21. It’s not extreme in one direction or another, but I cannot recall a stretch this long in recent Augusts so mild. A torch in the vicinity of Labor Day seems like a seasonal tradition, I’d be shocked if we didn’t have one, that said GEFS shows mild / below average heights through the end of August into met fall with the positive anomalies locked up northwest and northeast.

We may have lucked out on the ridiculous heat much of the N. Hemisphere saw this summer, but I don’t want to gloat too much, I fear our ticket will get punched soon enough.

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2 hours ago, luckyweather said:

NWS 7 day doesn’t have a high above 79 here west of Chicago taking us into 8/21. It’s not extreme in one direction or another, but I cannot recall a stretch this long in recent Augusts so mild. A torch in the vicinity of Labor Day seems like a seasonal tradition, I’d be shocked if we didn’t have one, that said GEFS shows mild / below average heights through the end of August into met fall with the positive anomalies locked up northwest and northeast.

We may have lucked out on the ridiculous heat much of the N. Hemisphere saw this summer, but I don’t want to gloat too much, I fear our ticket will get punched soon enough.

I feel like all of the corn, etc in the Midwest is helping to save us so far.  Puts out a lot of moisture which makes it more difficult to heat up.  A way around it would be to get a drought to set in early enough to take out a good amount of crops, like what happened in 2012.  Maybe there will come a day when the corn effect gets overridden by what's happening in the background, but we're not there yet.  Until then, I think we're going to be more prone to ridiculous warmth in the other seasons.  

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000
SXUS71 KILN 150607
RERCMH

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0205 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2022

...LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT COLUMBUS OH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES AT COLUMBUS, OHIO, YESTERDAY 
AUGUST 14, 2022, TIED THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PREVIOUSLY 
SET IN 2013.

$$

Columbus tied a record low maximum temperature.

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