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August 2022


Rtd208
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The system that moved through this morning was rather intense down by me. Couple cracks of thunder that shook the house and felt right above us. Tempest recorded it as a strike within 0-2 miles while almost everything else was more distal. Not much wind or any severe metrics, but there were a few serious cracks of thunder. 

.6 inches of rain too  

Nice event though, we needed it. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If the Euro/GFS are right, any drought will be long gone by the end of the month. If this cutoff and onshore flow are real, it’s a recipe for gushers for days. 

Meh. Let’s see what happens in the coming days. Models have been advertising these much needed rain events only to go poof inside 72 hours 

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Meh. Let’s see what happens in the coming days. Models have been advertising these much needed rain events only to go poof inside 72 hours 

Good advice.  12Z data so far shows no consistency.  GFS/GGEM are night and day different and even the GFS is modest in total qpf through next THURSDAY.  This pattern needs to setup just right or forget drought busting rains.  Sensitive setup and cutoff needs to be positioned correctly...much like a winter setup.

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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

euro is alot of rain but it's central jersey and south...yet another solution

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1660705200-6m47JCIqPFs.png

Another solution and likely not the final one.  This is going to bounce around before models settle in on something close to reality.  If this were the final solution the drought situation for NNJ into southern New England would continue to worsen.  :(

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