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August Discussion/Obs


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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lots of places are more overdue . You wanna see a big strong cane gotta go to Bahamas , Cuba , Dominican . Let’s schedule a group chase lol

There is over a 50% shot I travel for a chase this year 

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud…

Aside from NE I can only think of:

GA coast (probably more overdue) 

FL east coast

Houston

Tampa

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud…

Aside from NE I can only think of:

GA coast (probably more overdue) 

FL east coast

Houston

Tampa

GA coast has a very low chance sort of like Jacksonville, due to the angle of the coast 

I think the area just north of Miami to Palm beach is very overdue (Andrew hit S of Miami 30+ years ago ) and just north of Miami was barely effected 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud…

Aside from NE I can only think of:

GA coast (probably more overdue) 

FL east coast

Houston

Tampa

It is kind of amazing how many times the FL east coast has dodged a bullet in recent years. Trying to remember when the last one was. Could it be Katrina?

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It is kind of amazing how many times the FL east coast has dodged a bullet in recent years. Trying to remember when the last one was. Could it be Katrina?

I was in palm beach county for Katrina , that was a very weak hit for the east coast . About 85mph down in Fort Lauderdale and got going in gulf and hit key west decently as it pulled away and intensified rapidly 

The best for me Was Wilma , was stronger than forecast and had 110mph gusts across most of S FL Which seemed at the time much higher or should I say jaw dropping 
 

I recall watching Floyd a monster the year I moved down , we boarded up for and saw 24/7 on news for days that as usual hit Bahamas and curved NW just east of Florida , sparring us , was a large 4-5 buzzsaw 

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Frances and Jeanne in 04 I think were the last true FL east coast specials.  Not catastrophic but solid hits.

They were solid but they hit just north of me , they hit basically the same area near Martin county and up toward Sebastian inlet , the huge million dollar plus units that fill towers that line a 75 mile stretch from N Miami to west palm are overdue 

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49 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

GA coast has a very low chance sort of like Jacksonville, due to the angle of the coast 

I think the area just north of Miami to Palm beach is very overdue (Andrew hit S of Miami 30+ years ago ) and just north of Miami was barely effected 

Right, so they are kind of like us in that they need to overcome a number of hurdles to get a direct hit. 

Agree about the Miami area. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What places have blown past their return time in the hurricane landfall department? Just thinking out loud…

Aside from NE I can only think of:

GA coast (probably more overdue) 

FL east coast

Houston

Tampa

Wasn't Harvey pretty devastating in the Houston area?  At least in terms of rainfall?

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7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They were solid but they hit just north of me , they hit basically the same area near Martin county and up toward Sebastian inlet , the huge million dollar plus units that fill towers that line a 75 mile stretch from N Miami to west palm are overdue 

Living here in Martin County, Cat 5 Dorian Sat 76-80 miles to our east and destroyed part of the Bahamas; that’s as close to a Cat 5 I want to be!!!  
 

Growing up in ORH County for Gloria and Bob; New England will have considerable tree damage from a Cat 1 or greater. Many are unprepared 

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20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Not sure if one can truly prepare for a Cat 3 in SNE.   You can get a generator and some canned food.  Unless you want to go totally doomsday.   It would suck for weeks or longer if a ‘38 Redux hit

Cleanup and power restoration took one to two weeks after Bob. I think a cat three it would take 2 to 4+ weeks to clean up and restore power. 

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2 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Cleanup and power restoration took one to two weeks after Bob. I think a cat three it would take 2 to 4+ weeks to clean up and restore power. 

I went to the FL Panhandle for Cat 5 Michael and some lessons learned were cities and towns need to have a plan to open roads. Any grid repair up north will take time due to a few days of isolating what is damage and best way to start repairing. Having tarps for roofs and a people to tarp roofs properly is a big thing.

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15 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Cleanup and power restoration took one to two weeks after Bob. I think a cat three it would take 2 to 4+ weeks to clean up and restore power. 

If another ‘38 hit, we’d prob be out for a month outside of the densely populated areas right near cities. They’d prob get most of those back within a week or two but far suburbs/exurbs and beyond would take quite a bit longer. The sheer volume of tree damage to clear away would be the biggest limiting factor to restoring the grid. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we’d be knocked into the Stone Age if 38 redux occurred. If you take the track and intensity, you’d basically have the whole region as one massive outage. That would be an enormous undertaking for resources to first clear roads and then restore power. 

You basically had the equivalent of widespread F2 tornado damage between BOS and CT river. That’s catastrophic. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You basically had the equivalent of widespread F2 tornado damage between BOS and CT river. That’s catastrophic. 

 

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Absolutely.  Can’t even comprehend that lol.

So catastrophic even Phil gets choked up thinking about it. 

extreme-bucket-demo-phil-swift.gif

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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We chase in horse and carriage 

aYSNjqs.jpg

Or chase a Juan redux in your SUV?

Yeah we’d be knocked into the Stone Age if 38 redux occurred. If you take the track and intensity, you’d basically have the whole region as one massive outage. That would be an enormous undertaking for resources to first clear roads and then restore power. 

Another '38 in New England, especially SNE, would resemble Puerto Rico after Maria.

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