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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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Mm   the 24 trend in the operational Euro has been to shallow out that 120 to 168 hour ordeal next week in the east. 

It matters because folks are asking for organized hydro but ..

The problem I've been having - and still do ... - with that whole ordeal next week is that the total manifold of the trough its self doesn't appear to be arriving in the flow - the one over this next 24-48 hours, does.  There after, the models ( all doing this...) are just spontaneously ripping the field open with lower heights.  Then, as a response to that artifact, the create the giant 1006 mb low with all this rain...

I don't think so.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ll get wet.

Probably ... I don't believe the deep layer organization of that though. 

I suspect ( and am happy to be wrong if need be) the recent 24-hr trend toward weaker in the Euro probably ends in an open, non- closed depression in the field with nice convective blobs... That kind of morass can rain, even prodigiously ...don't need a helluva lot of triggers to dpour if theta-e's pooled and there's still relative summer sun cookin'.  

But the whole idea of a quasi E- jet anomaly over a 1006 mb low that doesn't move for 30 hrs strikes me as a secondary/non-linear wave manifestation.    The 700 mb flow is vaguely closed with like 20 kts of circulation velocity.  wooo. 

The models have been gunning for a trough along 80 W all summer... consummately having to back off moving inside of D5's.   There has been a tendency to nadir the flow around that longitude ... but the models tend to see things magnified at this range. This time there may be more, then their detecting a little more trough through that lens.   Heh, we'll see -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably ... I don't believe the deep layer organization of that though. 

I suspect ( and am happy to be wrong if need be) the recent 24-hr trend toward weaker in the Euro probably ends in an open, non- closed depression in the field with nice convective blobs... That kind of morass can rain, even prodigiously ...don't need a helluva lot of triggers to dpour if thete-e's pooled and there's still relative summer sun cookin'.  

But the whole idea of a quasi E- jet anomaly over a 1006 mb low that doesn't move for 30 hrs strikes me as a secondary/non-linear wave manifestation.    The 700 mb flow is vaguely closed with like 20 kts of circulation velocity.  wooo. 

The models have been gunning for a trough along 80 W all summer... consummately having to back off moving inside of D5's.   There has been a tendency to nadir the flow around that longitude ... but the models tend to see things magnified at this range and their detecting a little more trough through that lens.   Heh, we'll see -

Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast?

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast?

Right for the wrong reason. The mother f gets us either way :stein:

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast?

He will be worried any potential rain will be too far north/south/east/west until it’s actually happening and even then might not believe it.  Stein has a choke hold.

Cant say I blame him, persistence forecasting :lol:.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast?

I'm not sure the low ultimately closes ...and/or if does so, it may do so too shallow to force a response in the surface features. 

The trough appears to be deepening to me without an entry - it just spontaneously opens up in the flow.  That's the non-linear/secondary result from changes in WAR moving E, and the ridge in the west retrograding ... I've seen the models do that in the winter, and they mistook as activated L/Ws - this happened in the 2020-2021 winter, near the end of January I think it was. It was more like a deep sag in the heights between - 

But you're right - the lack of b-c fielding is playing into that, as there's not enough thermodynamic feed backs ..   

 

 

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How much rain do you forecast for Tolland for the next 7 days?  Under 1.0”?

1-2”?    

Based on what I see now.. Under 1”. Possibly by quite a bit. Everything went way east today . Maybe it shifts back west. Maybe it doesn’t. We won’t have a good idea either way until Sunday night. As of now.. I’d go scattered showers Tuesday 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on what I see now.. Under 1”. Possibly by quite a bit. Everything went way east today . Maybe it shifts back west. Maybe it doesn’t. We won’t have a good idea either way until Sunday night. As of now.. I’d go scattered showers Tuesday 

Not sure why you cheer on drought in the summer with how much you invest into your lawn. 

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Jeez.  I had not looked at weather stuff since yesterday.  At that time it looked like a region wide soaker with just details as to where the heavy rain sets up.  I come back now (without reading all the posts since yesterday) but I just took a quick glance at the 18Z GFS and it has the Stein continuing and getting worse.  Almost no rain through 270 hours.  What a change!

Screenshot 2022-08-11 184953.jpg

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37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure why you cheer on drought in the summer with how much you invest into your lawn. 

I haven’t invested anything this year with Stein. I’m not cheering on drought . I want rain . But why would anyone be calling for heavy rains next week based on the pattern, persistence and how you typically don’t get flooding norEaster’s in August ? Why would someone think anything other than showers or a period of lighter type rains based on the look? Took a walk thru hood this eve.. there is something soothing about a drought.. maybe it’s the quiet , slow but steady early death of many things in early August .

14A1Ev8.jpggOF1HQN.jpgkl8YbWJ.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Neighbor across street watered most of July . At times he had 2 sprinklers going at once . He got his water bill last week. $575. :lol: Needless to say.. his wife put a stop to all of that in one fell swoop . We all have wells except him. Don’t really get it and neither does he. 

I watered all of June and July water bill was $150 extra. Only watered the half acre I care about. I’ve given up since the last good rain July 20th grass is 50% dead now. Haven’t had more than a 5 minute downpour in 3.5 weeks. 

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