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August Discussion/Obs


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image.thumb.jpeg.f5ab9b74cd2bf80272b3133b5611ca16.jpeg
 

It’s interesting that as July turns the page into what is typically a very active month for tropical genesis, we peer out across the entire breadth of the Atlantic Basin and we can only define absolutely ….nothing… Zero aspects of interest. 

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Pretty good model consistency for a big heat day this Thursday. I keep waiting for the 850s to lessen, and they have, but that plume is still exceptionally warm. GFS and EC are around 22-23C near peak heating. 

We used to use that “add 17C” rule for hot summer days with 12z 850s and they’re running around 21C at that time. So that puts the hot spots around 38C at the sfc…ie 100F. 

So we’ll see if the potency of that plume survives out of the northern plains. If it is overdone there it’ll be overdone here. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good model consistency for a big heat day this Thursday. I keep waiting for the 850s to lessen, and they have, but that plume is still exceptionally warm. GFS and EC are around 22-23C near peak heating. 

We used to use that “add 17C” rule for hot summer days with 12z 850s and they’re running around 21C at that time. So that puts the hot spots around 38C at the sfc…ie 100F. 

So we’ll see if the potency of that plume survives out of the northern plains. If it is overdone there it’ll be overdone 

Perfect timing for the Aug 1st rate increase.

The energy service rate for New Hampshire Electric Co-op will go up 77%, Liberty Utilities will jump 100% and Eversource's rate will rise by 112%.

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f5ab9b74cd2bf80272b3133b5611ca16.jpeg
 

It’s interesting that as July turns the page into what is typically a very active month for tropical genesis, we peer out across the entire breadth of the Atlantic Basin and we can only define absolutely ….nothing… Zero aspects of interest. 

Usually the yin and yang of anomalies is visible by just zooming out to the CONUS—east vs west, north vs south. But it appears the whole of the Western Hemisphere is significantly drier than normal, and has been this way for a few months. Hell, we here in New England have managed severe drought conditions with persistent eastern CONUS UL troughing. 

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f5ab9b74cd2bf80272b3133b5611ca16.jpeg
 

It’s interesting that as July turns the page into what is typically a very active month for tropical genesis, we peer out across the entire breadth of the Atlantic Basin and we can only define absolutely ….nothing… Zero aspects of interest. 

It's global warming.  Many more hurricanes and much stronger.

Well, maybe next year.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good model consistency for a big heat day this Thursday. I keep waiting for the 850s to lessen, and they have, but that plume is still exceptionally warm. GFS and EC are around 22-23C near peak heating. 

We used to use that “add 17C” rule for hot summer days with 12z 850s and they’re running around 21C at that time. So that puts the hot spots around 38C at the sfc…ie 100F. 

So we’ll see if the potency of that plume survives out of the northern plains. If it is overdone there it’ll be overdone here. 

Sounds like a real Nashua/Methuen scorcher.

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12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f5ab9b74cd2bf80272b3133b5611ca16.jpeg
 

It’s interesting that as July turns the page into what is typically a very active month for tropical genesis, we peer out across the entire breadth of the Atlantic Basin and we can only define absolutely ….nothing… Zero aspects of interest. 

lots of dust out there for now

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy Dendy and PF really hurt Kevin’s feelings. 

Took his lunch money too I guess, after getting bullied by the Plymouth State Weather Center dew point map.

Tough seeing folks get hurt when pressed for empirical data on a weather/science forum.

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40 minutes ago, wkd said:

What does COC stand for?  The board should have an acronym definition list.

COC-Chamber of Commerce

AWT' AIT- AS WE (I) THOUGHT

AEMATT- ALL EASTERN MASS ALL THE TIME ( MOST POPULAR IN WINTER)

WTTY - we tried to tell you 

 

Others can add  more 

 

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I dunno..it's kind of hard to tell what's happening out there. 

It seems we're nearing seasonal zenith in the non-hydrostats in these models - perhaps in reality.  It is difficult to parse out if there are any real heat bursts embedded.. Thursday looks legit. But beyond is very dubious to me. 

The Euro at 00z pulls off the largest c500 mb height anomaly spatial layout out perhaps in years by this Friday and Saturday, encompassing everywhere S of 50 N ?   

71 F 18z Friday.   Ok -

Meanwhile, the GFS thinks it's late November with the power of polar jet it Neptune's across southern Canada...so much so that it ablates the heat's ability to get N without sanding it off by phantom fronts.   It was wrong about the 5 day heat wave because of that reason, and that thing happened in less ridging so there's very little confidence the GFS isn't just typically SPV happy.

 

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

lots of dust out there for now

It's possibly the lack of ITCZ that's causing the +anomaly SAL - or there is some governing factor relating to both. 

Looping this for the last 5 days, take a look at the African side of the MDR

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

The SAL has zipped shut the region.  There is no cloud production at all subtantive enough to condensate and clear out at least the ITCZ.  It's like the equatorial monsoonal trough it's self is weak - or stopped. weird. 

Not only that... I'm also noticing there is a perceivable dearth in both frequency and intensity of TW demography.  There are none...

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