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July 23-24 Severe Weather


MNstorms
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4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

IF the current storms over NE IL become the WAA wing of that MN complex ..get your boats ready

 

you can perhaps see weak signs of this starting on the visible (connecting clouds back into MN)

 

 

  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
304 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 1745Z SAT JUL 23 2022 - 12Z SUN JUL 24 2022  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE  
ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER... 

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS   NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHICH HAS DROPPED A GROWING   FOOTPRINT OF 3-6" OF RAINFALL LED TO A TARGETED MODERATE RISK NEAR   THE IL/IN BORDER, WHERE ONGOING RAINFALL AND RAINFALL LATER TODAY   COULD EXACERBATE ISSUES. THE GAP BETWEEN THE BACKBUILDING   ACTIVITY IN IL/IN AND WHAT'S INCOMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHWEST   IA IS NARROWING -- THERE'S INCREASING CONCERN THAT ANY GAP IN THE   HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT ALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR   CONTINUED TRAINING IN EITHER A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OR   WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN   THE VICINITY OF AT LEAST THREE CONVECTIVE ROUNDS --

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20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. :huh:

Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse.

Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar.

More capping than expected?

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20Z HRRR at hour 1 has a lot more, and stronger storms at 21Z than there actually are. :huh:
Complex really seems to be having trouble filling in to the south of that cluster now east of La Crosse.
Discrete cell that tried to get going in north-central Iowa appears to be dying as it approaches Calmar.
More capping than expected?

Living and dying by the HRRR too much. This is how it goes with hot start CAMS.

Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area.
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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area.

Northeast Iowa really whiffed on this one.  They could get some good storms tonight, though, when the LLJ kicks in.

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Well, LOT seems to think the storms will be entering Chi town around 8 p.m. in their graphic rather than the wee hours near dawn tomorrow unless a new batch forms.  Will be interesting to see how his plays out .

I personally thought the guy that wrote that afternoon afd had a crack hit. But he's the pro. I just watch the radar. Would not be surprised to get hammered again around 4 a.m.

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Did some digging into the morning tornadoes in LOT, and needless to say it's very unusual to get tornadoes around that time of day.  The last time there was anything like that was back in 2011 (in Kankakee county).  There have been many dozens of tornadoes in the LOT cwa since then, but none of them had occurred anywhere near 5-6 am.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did some digging into the morning tornadoes in LOT, and needless to say it's very unusual to get tornadoes around that time of day.  The last time there was anything like that was back in 2011 (in Kankakee county).  There have been many dozens of tornadoes in the LOT cwa since then, but none of them had occurred anywhere near 5-6 am.  

Not quite up to date, but this graphic from LOT shows the general idea.  

TornadoesByHour.png

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11 hours ago, Baum said:

I personally thought the guy that wrote that afternoon afd had a crack hit. But he's the pro. I just watch the radar. Would not be surprised to get hammered again around 4 a.m.

confirmed. This mornings round pretty much guarantees green for the remainder of the summer.

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During yesterday's storm this tree shed a huge limb. Completely blocked the road at the time. The street department came by and just cut the limbs off at the side of the car. Then today a tree service came by and cut the limbs off of the car. I think the car is totaled. Severely buckled. Tree is not in good shape either.

 

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