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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Eagle Lake Me on the Tor

Nothing confirmed from CAR, but earlier they reported a cell with apparent rotation moving from just south of Deboullie to Winterville, the town just south from Eagle Lake, also a damage report - trees/powerlines down - on a side road in Winterville.

Meanwhile, I'm watching the RA+ echoes diminish to lgt RA as they approach our area, maybe up to 0.2" in occasional showers, otherwise just muggly.

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There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours 

The junk on the MA/CT line appears to be drying up, the stuff on the NY/VT line looks like the area to watch as you stated

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

The junk on the MA/CT line appears to be drying up, the stuff on the NY/VT line looks like the area to watch as you stated

Yeah that drying up is a good thing...but also a bad thing because latent heat release could act to further weaken the mid-level lapse rates a bit more but actually they looked to have steepened some. Makes sense for them to do so though as we do have CAA aloft in the mid-levels as the trough/subsequent height falls approach. 

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26 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Got some rumbles from that storm here. That'll probably do it for here. Feel like when you miss out on the 1st one nearby you end up on wrong side of boundaries and get porked. 

Same in Methuen. A few rumbles of thunder and nothing more

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3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Million dollar question is how does the junk in Western/Central CT impact areas further east?

This is where the bulk of activity is going to likely start and fire off. It does look like there may be some room to thin clouds out a bit and get some additional heating. CAMs still pretty inconsistent with how everything evolves which makes it tough. I'm still leaning towards widespread storms across Connecticut which may strengthen as they move towards E CT

image.png.90bfb85bb17d6fb1a42132701baf287e.png

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