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TS Colin


GaWx
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
1. Near the Southeastern US:
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate 
that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of 
Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it 
drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the 
next day or so.  Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding 
across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through 
tonight and into Saturday.  See products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast 
office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

CoastalLow07012022at1723ZGaveMe4InchesThru1PM.thumb.png.c40b2299a1d0888f014f4de0205adf6b.png

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  • GaWx changed the title to Invest 96L just offshore SE US coast

This one may not get classified given how close it is to the coast, but it has really delivered some big rainfall totals along the SC and GA coastline. Just south of Charleston is getting hit hard. 4+ inches of rain in the last two hours. 

Looks like the center is meandering right at the coast. 

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NHC taking note. This is a really impressive invest for having this much land interaction.

With a weak LLC over the coast and deep convection firing offshore with obvious rotation, this one could pick up a name as it moves northeast. 
 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure 
system along the South Carolina coast.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bonnie, located near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

Near the South Carolina Coast:
Updated:  Recent surface observations indicate that a small low 
pressure system located just inland to the west of Charleston, 
South Carolina, is producing localized areas of winds to tropical 
storm force along the South Carolina coast.  This system is expected 
to move northeastward along the South Carolina and North Carolina 
coasts over the weekend, and a tropical depression or tropical storm 
could form if the center of the low remains close enough to the 
Atlantic waters during that time.  Regardless of development, this 
system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash 
flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas over the weekend.  
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local 
National Weather Service forecast office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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60% now…

Near the South Carolina Coast:
Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that 
the small low pressure system located along the coast of South 
Carolina is producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds 
primarily to the southeast of its center over water and near the
immediate coast.  In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has 
persisted near the area of low pressure over the last 6 to 12 hours. 
If the associated showers and thunderstorms persist and continue to 
become better organized, then this system could become a tropical 
storm later today while moving northeastward along the South 
Carolina coast, and then reaching the North Carolina coast by 
tonight.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to 
produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across coastal 
portions of the Carolinas over the weekend.  See products issued by 
the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather 
Service forecast office for more details.  Further information on 
the system, including offshore gale warnings, can be found in High 
Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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  • GaWx changed the title to TS Colin
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
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Always fascinating to watch TC genesis. 
 

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Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just 
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland 
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep 
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and 
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had 
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a 
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed 
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the 
northeast of Charleston.

Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.

Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue 
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear 
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening 
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared 
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, 
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast 
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western 
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

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4 hours ago, lee59 said:

Just checked coastal locations and buoys offshore and the highest I found was 23 knots. Has anyone found any buoy locations with 40mph sustained winds?

Frying pan tower is currently gusting to 44 kts, sustained at 30 kts

The location has been seeing sustained winds between 30-35 for about 3 hours and have a max gust of 46 kts

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