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July Discobs 2022


George BM
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18z GFS for next Thursday approaches 100 and is in low 100s on Friday at DCA

12z CMC for next Thursday is near 90 and probably mid 90 to upper 90s (like 97ish) for Friday at DCA

12z EURO for next Thursday is mid 90s and mid 90s for Friday at DCA

 

Question -- why are the temps 10-15 degrees warmer in SNE compared to us on Friday on 12z EURO?  I do see that 925mbT are 5 degrees warmer up there compared to down here... and 850s are 3-4 degrees Celsius warmer as well.

 

 

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Our next opportunity for failure begins tomorrow night.

Also, not good for the folks in parts of Kentucky. Disco from WPC excessive rainfall discussion for day 2-

Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley and
Mid-Atlantic...
There is a growing signal for repeating storms to develop along a
stalled frontal boundary that could potentially yield several
inches of rain across middle Tennessee, far southern Kentucky and
areas back towards the Missouri Bootheel. During this period much
of the southern tier of the country will have pooled Gulf moisture
with PWs upwards of 2 inches (+1- +2 sigma) along with nearly
parallel low level flow (20-25 kts) to the W-E orientated frontal
boundary. This is a favorable setup for very efficient rainfall.
Even with another set of model guidance...the exact location of
the frontal boundary along with when it starts to lift northward
dampens confidence as to whether or not a Moderate Risk will need
to be introduced over areas soaked by recent excessive rainfall
events. Much like yesterday...opted to use a broader brush for
the Slight Risk area than usual for what may well be modest
rainfall amounts across the Tennessee Valley and central
Appalachians. There is still some possibility that some heavy rain
could develop along east of the Appalachians later Sunday night
into early Monday as a shortwave induces low pressure to form
along a front that extends from Virginia out over the Atlantic.
The model agreement is not unanimous but the NCEP guidance has
started to reflect the idea began by the UKMET 24 hours ago. Made
only minor adjustments to the on-going outlook there.

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9 hours ago, yoda said:

18z GFS for next Thursday approaches 100 and is in low 100s on Friday at DCA

12z CMC for next Thursday is near 90 and probably mid 90 to upper 90s (like 97ish) for Friday at DCA

12z EURO for next Thursday is mid 90s and mid 90s for Friday at DCA

 

Question -- why are the temps 10-15 degrees warmer in SNE compared to us on Friday on 12z EURO?  I do see that 925mbT are 5 degrees warmer up there compared to down here... and 850s are 3-4 degrees Celsius warmer as well.

 

 

The location of the upper ridge on the 12z Euro, and the surface high off the Atlantic coast, produces mid and lower level wind trajectory that is ideal for downslope /compressional heating for eastern/southern NE. At least that's the way it looks to me.

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LWX thinking that areas that have been left out recently could have a chance Sunday night -- let's hope!

"...Although areas to the north across ern WV, and north central MD could see heavier rainfall totals, these areas have been very dry recently and I`m not anticipating any flooding issues across those areas at this time."

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some significant changes so far in the 12Z suite of models:   several CAMs now show a batch of heavy showers moving across a good chunk of northern VA and northwestern MD during Sunday afternoon.    The HRRR even goes so far as to make it a full Sunday afternoon washout for the metro areas.     Will be interesting to see if this is a one-cycle glitch for the guidance or if it's figuring out now that Sunday won't be nearly as nice of a day as originally expected.

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good one: "thresholdy"

By late morning/early afternoon Friday, a cold front may drop
down from the northwest and usher in the next chance for a few
strong to even severe thunderstorms for the area. Instability
parameters are thresholdy at this point, but we`ll continue to
monitor the latest for any potential significant forecast
adjustments needed.

 

breezy this morning, gusting ~15-20 mph

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57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z suite shows rain shield remaining activated for my area for the fourth consecutive event.

Euro is noticeably south and wetter than the other guidance. Good rain for both of us. But it’s the euro so…:unsure:

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41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is noticeably south and wetter than the other guidance. Good rain for both of us. But it’s the euro so…:unsure:

Yeah, like you, the Euro has given me multiple inches of rain over several events that in reality added up to a tenth or so.

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Mount Holly dropped the D word.

A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region.

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28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly dropped the D word.

A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region.

I thought you meant derecho, then I got hit with drought.  

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