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July Discobs 2022


George BM
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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice line developing along I-95. Here's my view from the west.

 

Right down the street from me.  Were you around when the Cell formed and dropped the big Fat drops for about 2 minutes then grew as it went east? 

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Early next week could be interesting depending on the exact location of the stalled front that will lie to our south. 

Snippet from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly-

Sunday night into Monday...The surface high weakens and a low and mid level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. As this happens, the front to our south should begin to slide northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north the front will get remains uncertain, but some models have the front as far north as southern Delmarva by late Sunday night. This has implications for our region because the pattern has several similarities to a Maddox heavy rain frontal event. In these types of patterns, there is a risk for heavy rain on the north side of a E-W slow moving front. Winds aloft are nearly parallel to the front and model soundings depict very high precipitable water values (near the 90th percentile for early August) and deep warm cloud layers. If the front does get as far north as southern Delmarva, then heavy rain could be a concern for northern Delmarva and S Jersey. I added a mention of heavy rain into the forecast, but have held off on any flood watch considerations as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front will be.

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10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Thought it was an interesting sky with the shelf and the sun behind, but under, the storm.  Quick 0.30”

177A5BCC-36F2-4E95-8AA8-BE45812F7027.thumb.jpeg.302c4a5cfb6707723394eca0b63f5ef4.jpeg

Nice one! 

I meant to get a pic of the Cb that passed over yesterday afternoon; not too tall, but quite striking: the "bubbly effect" was outlined very nicely against the late afternoon sun in the west. 

Brought to mind one of my earliest weather memories: end of the season Little League, we had a picnic, a violent thunderstorm came through, we all had to take shelter, and when it was over, I remember seeing this huge Cb to the east retreating away, with not a single other cloud in the sky. 

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One other odd aspect of the storm yesterday:   there was no lightning as the line moved through southern Howard, but it started cranking out bolts on the back side of the storm as it moved into PG.   There were numerous lightning strikes in Howard, eastern Montgomery, and western PG well after the rain had ended, including one that was way, way too close here and knocked out our power for 5 hours.0-27.thumb.jpeg.efdd4c24ecb000085b933fa314c343b9.jpeg

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Early next week could be interesting depending on the exact location of the stalled front that will lie to our south. 

Snippet from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly-

Sunday night into Monday...The surface high weakens and a low and mid level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. As this happens, the front to our south should begin to slide northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north the front will get remains uncertain, but some models have the front as far north as southern Delmarva by late Sunday night. This has implications for our region because the pattern has several similarities to a Maddox heavy rain frontal event. In these types of patterns, there is a risk for heavy rain on the north side of a E-W slow moving front. Winds aloft are nearly parallel to the front and model soundings depict very high precipitable water values (near the 90th percentile for early August) and deep warm cloud layers. If the front does get as far north as southern Delmarva, then heavy rain could be a concern for northern Delmarva and S Jersey. I added a mention of heavy rain into the forecast, but have held off on any flood watch considerations as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front will be.

            This is an excellent discussion.    The GFS hasn't caught on to this threat yet, but the ECMWF and Canadian have.

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3 hours ago, high risk said:

One other odd aspect of the storm yesterday:   there was no lightning as the line moved through southern Howard, but it started cranking out bolts on the back side of the storm as it moved into PG.   There were numerous lightning strikes in Howard, eastern Montgomery, and western PG well after the rain had ended, including one that was way, way too close here and knocked out our power for 5 hours.0-27.thumb.jpeg.efdd4c24ecb000085b933fa314c343b9.jpeg

Wow at far back from the rain some of those bolts are!  Those are the kind of strikes that kill

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The current radar looks familiar. So does the 3k NAM simulation. Might make it 0 for the last 3 'high probability' precip events. If the HRRR is correct, might see some drizzle.

Sum the last 10 days of sub-12hr Euro QPF for me and I’m probably near 4”. Verification? 0.1”

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sum the last 10 days of sub-12hr Euro QPF for me and I’m probably near 4”. Verification? 0.1”

Less than a tenth since the middle of last week. I think it was that Tuesday I had a miracle cell pop on my doorstep and dump an inch plus. No hint that ever occurred now. Like a desert. I can start reseeding in another week.

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4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Whoo SE VA has been getting pounded on lately.  I've been in VA Beach for weeks like that.  One year (I think 2018) they opened the base for people to pass through as local roads had a foot of water just sitting on them.  Lots of board games that week :axe:

Looks like you are about to get hit 

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