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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 


The shallow Great South Bay made it to 86° today. 

6FD94B05-B26E-42F4-ACDD-0A219818760A.png.c9377ef248deced830a700fc029c44bf.png

 

My first time at a GSB beach the water felt as hot as the air temp (upper 80’s). I was shocked and confused.

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The hottest temperatures of the year are likely this weekend. Widespread high temperatures of 95°-100° with higher figures in the lower 100s are likely. Monday will be slightly cooler, but temperatures will still reach the lower 90s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will become several degrees cooler through midweek.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -2.89.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.260 today.

On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.690 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.128 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal).

 

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49 minutes ago, Cfa said:

My first time at a GSB beach the water felt as hot as the air temp (upper 80’s). I was shocked and confused.

Yeah, much of the bay is so shallow that it heats up like a backyard swimming pool.

 

 

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98 three days in a row imby is a real heat wave...its been dry here so the humidity is much lower in my hood except for a drop or two a little while ago...a drop in the bucket so to speak...down to 88 now...

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High temp was 98 today, but as I said it didn't feel that bad with the dewpoint dropping down into the 50s here. I went for a 5 mile run this afternoon and it didn't feel bad running even though the temp was in the 90s. Amazing the difference a little lower humidity makes.

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

99 in Hillsborough....just couldn't  complete the trifecta of 3 straight 100 days.. we try tomorrow

 

day 11 of my heatwave  churns forward 

Was wondering if we would get there todayl

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The ongoing heatwave has now qualified as an Extreme Heat Event (EHE) in Newark. At least 3 days have seen the maximum temperature exceed the 97.5th percentile (98° or above), the average high during that period exceeded the 97.5th percentile, and all high temperatures exceeded the 81st percentile (90° or above) in June-August high temperatures for the 1971-2000 base period (Clarke, et al.,2014).

image.png.1a8aaedb114dc87fcd35c1942755e38b.png

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing heatwave has now qualified as an Extreme Heat Event (EHE) in Newark. At least 3 days have seen the maximum temperature exceed the 97.5th percentile (98° or above), the average high during that period exceeded the 97.5th percentile, and all high temperatures exceeded the 81st percentile (90° or above) in June-August high temperatures for the 1971-2000 base period (Clarke, et al.,2014).

 

 

image.png.1a8aaedb114dc87fcd35c1942755e38b.png

 

1966 wow 

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