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High of 88 here, currently 84 and breezy.

Been north of NY25 for a couple of months now and it really reminds me of Queens (my normal) in terms of highs. Completely different world compared to ISP.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS is out: 

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts. 

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47 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Currently

D.C. 89

Baltimore 91

Philly 91

Hartford 90

Central Park 88

Newark 98

In today's case there's more clouds and storms around DC so they not reaching their full potential. The park probably shouldn't be the same as an overcast DCA.

A late push and I'm up to 96.

 

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A t storm just south of south st seaport is causing pandemonium with flying umbrella and flying broken glass on the piers for happy hour. Pouring in Bk with drizzle sunshine and powerful winds by Fulton 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Highs around the region today…

ALB….95°

POU…94°

EWR….99°

Harrison…97°

LGA….93°

NYC….91°

Harrison was two degrees cooler and it comes from someones back yard off of Harrison ave and Davis ave...not much greenery except for some trees...

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7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

98 last June...100 can be reached...it will be 110 in Newark though...

Yeah, the all-time  highs set back in 2010 and 2011 have been tough to challenge. My guess is that it has been too wet since then to reach those levels. Drought feedback is very important for all-time highs. 
 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106
NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104
NJ CRANFORD COOP 104
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 104
CT DANBURY COOP 104
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 103
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 103
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 103
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 103
NY WEST POINT COOP 103
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 102
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 102
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 101
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101
NY BRONX COOP 101
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 101
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 100
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100
CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 100
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 100
CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 100
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Possible Water Spout Tornado off of CI at 5:42PM?      Did not actually see anything but sand going round.       1 lightning flash.

Was not even aware of the Warning.     Phone went off?    E-Mail came during the action.     CI was mentioned specifically.      I have some photos that really show nothing.      

This is an important message from NY Alert

HEADLINE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 01 at 5:42PM EDT until July 01 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Queens County in southeastern New York...
Kings County in southeastern New York...
Nassau County in southeastern New York...
* Until 630 PM EDT.
* At 542 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Coney Island,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.
* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Sheepshead Bay around 545 PM EDT.
Flatbush around 550 PM EDT.
Canarsie around 555 PM EDT.
Rockaway Beach and Howard Beach around 600 PM EDT.
Kennedy Airport around 605 PM EDT.
Jamaica and Long Beach around 610 PM EDT.
Valley Stream and Lynbrook around 615 PM EDT.
Garden City and Baldwin around 620 PM EDT.
Freeport and Mineola around 625 PM EDT.
Levittown and Massapequa around 630 PM EDT.
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

INSTRUCTIONS: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

1656711960-moT5Lcmfm10.png

1656711000-d3Qza9yMZBw.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models don’t do very well with ENSO forecasts for the following winter this early. The main thing that everyone is interested in is whether there will be blocking or not. That is usually unknown until the winter starts. 

I think it will be an interesting forecast. I’ve seen some experts saying we currently have a volcanic stratosphere. Also looks like rapidly increasing solar and +QBO taking over by winter. When you add in the very rare 3rd year Niña, record -IOD and the very persistent -PDO/-PMM states, it should be a very difficult winter forecast coming up

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Under strong sunshine, the mercury soared into the 90s in many parts of the region. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 91°
Baltimore: 96°
Boston: 92°
Hartford: 94°
New York City: 91°
Newark: 99°
Philadelphia: 94°
Washington, DC: 92°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A cold front will move across the region bringing thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could grow to severe levels.

Afterward, it will be somewhat cooler. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +19.39 today. The old daily record was +21.58 in 2009)

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.168 today.

On June 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.483 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.555 (RMM).

 

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it will be an interesting forecast. I’ve seen some experts saying we currently have a volcanic stratosphere. Also looks like rapidly increasing solar and +QBO taking over by winter. When you add in the very rare 3rd year Niña, record -IOD and the very persistent -PDO/-PMM states, it should be a very difficult winter forecast coming up

We don’t rally have any analogs for so much water vapor injected into the stratosphere. 


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381

 

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H2O, SO2, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO2 and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H2O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H2O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O.

Key Points

 

  • Following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measured enhancements of stratospheric H2O, SO2, and HCl

  • The mass of SO2 and HCl injected is comparable to that from prior eruptions, whereas the magnitude of the H2O injection is unprecedented

  • Excess stratospheric H2O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming


The violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Wow i didnt know Mineola and Wantagh hit 108 and 107 respectively.  

The south shore can get very hot on the right wind direction, but you know this having grown up there. I swear the hottest I have ever felt is at the beach with a strong Nw flow. The sand radiating has I cause near surface temps to exceed 110

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

if central park ever reaches 100 again we'll all be dead

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. Triple digits are not easy especially with significant increase in precip & humidity. The sensor at PHL is currently reading 1-2 too warm therefore they have a better than average shot this summer. 

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17 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. Triple digits are not easy especially with significant increase in precip & humidity. The sensor at PHL is currently reading 1-2 too warm therefore they have a better than average shot this summer. 

Can I please have a link to the PHL sensor issue?  So PHL is too warm but nothing about Central Park surrounded by a jungle?

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29 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Philadelphia and Central Park haven't recorded 100 degrees since 7/18/2012. Since that date the max temp at both locations is 98 degrees. 

Several other spots around Philly have hit 100° in recent years.

 

Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP

100
 


 

Data for January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 101
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100
DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 100
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100
NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100


 

Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101
NJ ATSION COOP 101
PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 100
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100
NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 100
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