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July 2022


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Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the  block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. 
 

CBD7382D-EAEB-4D7A-A5A8-CFA63DF6FDA7.thumb.png.c5b3e06b342a39e0866880705141fb11.png

BDDC389E-B10C-4F47-B5B6-C6A7981354B3.thumb.png.2ac6237982f8ab6f91e3dbfc7126bf64.png


E9D36D74-CB2D-4FD9-8531-57BA883679B2.thumb.png.3871c12771d8098f46c5593253b92cd7.png

 

Typical July La Niña pattern

 

4615F786-C0D0-439A-BF3F-EFCC80787AE3.png.fa141fc6626e6b8aeb21c30c8dff0c2e.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Late July will come down to how much influence the La Nina vs the  block in Northern Canada has. The EPS and GEFS are defaulting to typical La Nina climatology of a strong WAR/SE Ridge. The GEPS has more blocking so the WAR/SE Ridge is flatter. The degree of blocking will determine whether we get 1-2 days of 95°+ heat at a time like this week or something more extended. 
 

CBD7382D-EAEB-4D7A-A5A8-CFA63DF6FDA7.thumb.png.c5b3e06b342a39e0866880705141fb11.png

BDDC389E-B10C-4F47-B5B6-C6A7981354B3.thumb.png.2ac6237982f8ab6f91e3dbfc7126bf64.png


E9D36D74-CB2D-4FD9-8531-57BA883679B2.thumb.png.3871c12771d8098f46c5593253b92cd7.png

 

Typical July La Niña pattern

 

4615F786-C0D0-439A-BF3F-EFCC80787AE3.png.fa141fc6626e6b8aeb21c30c8dff0c2e.png

 

What would drive the change to a typical La Niña pattern though?

Surely hasnt been present through now

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54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What would drive the change to a typical La Niña pattern though?

Surely hasnt been present through now

May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out. 
 

69C59334-79AF-4628-85BB-DE39413BDD48.gif.b18ff5a69cb9ac7791f86436ba6c418f.gif

4A694EE6-CF77-4B42-82BD-8DE5B2AD9166.gif.dde9c3ac4e739018fbbdb16f8b6b8a0e.gif

05F823BB-4B0D-44C4-A897-44E057E02AE7.gif.12479447dc69fd209c06356356b1caa3.gif

 

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Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. 

WX/PT

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6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. 

WX/PT

With the big question still being , but when... 

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12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

With the big question still being , but when... 

I have thought that the GFS is rushing it. I think we are still at this time prime for the 1-2 day surges maybe 3 in the 7/16-7/18 time-frame of the western ridge. I think WAR or a merger between WAR and the western ridge would more likely give us a prolonged heatwave particularly after 7/22.

WX/PT

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Tomorrow and Monday will be mostly sunny and warm. A brief surge of heat is possible for Tuesday and Wednesday. At that time, widespread 90s are possible.

In the Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Through 3:30 pm MST, Phoenix has had a high temperature of 112°. Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above through the middle of next week. Afterward, somewhat cooler air will close out the week.

Elsewhere, Denver reached 100° (old record: 98°, 1903, 1989 and 2021) and Salt Lake City reached 102° (tied record set in 1939 and tied in 1994).

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +4.62.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.520 today.

On July 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.329 (RMM). The July 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.433 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.4° (0.9° above normal).

 

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

May was the last month that we had a strong La Niña pattern in our area. Impressive blocking emerged in early June which resulted in the La Niña ridge getting squashed down toward Texas. July is starting out with a continuation of the blocking dueling with the La Niña ridge to our SW. So the major 95°+ heat has been occurring in brief 1-2 day intervals. The blocking would have to weaken for more extended major 95°+heat. So our local weather for the rest of the summer will come down to whether the blocking or the La Niña wins out. 
 

69C59334-79AF-4628-85BB-DE39413BDD48.gif.b18ff5a69cb9ac7791f86436ba6c418f.gif

4A694EE6-CF77-4B42-82BD-8DE5B2AD9166.gif.dde9c3ac4e739018fbbdb16f8b6b8a0e.gif

05F823BB-4B0D-44C4-A897-44E057E02AE7.gif.12479447dc69fd209c06356356b1caa3.gif

 

The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter: 

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new NMME has trended stronger with the La Niña and the -IOD. It peaks the Niña at moderate strength late fall into early winter: 

The blocking up near Baffin Island continues to the wild card. The latest EPS is correcting stronger with block at 240 hours from a few days ago. So the La Niña SE Ridge/WAR can’t really lock in like it typically does during a La Niña summer.

New run stronger Baffin Island block 

757C1535-A65C-4B6E-828F-8ACDEBB71F06.thumb.png.287d6a23efb54a526cac616e4bdf7822.png

 

Old run stronger SE Ridge/WAR

 

6BD03672-1BBF-44DF-ABD4-C49677928528.thumb.png.184a3da8f072b038c228f73ba5e6a921.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(70/90) or +2.

Reached 87 here late yesterday.

Today:   78-82, wind n. to s., few clouds, 67 tomorrow AM.

Lower future T's than  yesterday.    CMC the lowest after Teusday-Wednesday rain.      GFS has little rain till next Sunday.       Models are ingesting some bad 'hootch'.     EURO staying with 90's starting Tuesday.

69*(84%RH) here at 7am.      74* at Noon.       76* at 3pm.       Reached 82* at 7pm.        71* at 11pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 86°

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasant but hot weather will likely return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 88.9°

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58/48 low overnight noe 74/56 with NNE flow.  Lining up to be a gorgeous day and a very mid summer week with some heat and maybe some storms.  A piece of the furnace will eject east by  Mon (7/11) and roast the area Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) where 850 MB temps are forecast to be >18c to 20C.  Highs in the mid / upper 90s with some of the hotter spots approaching the 100 marker.   Storms may time to arrive later Tuesday and overnight tuesday into Wednesday.   Wednesday should clear and heat up.   Overall hot with temps near 90 Thu (7/14) and Fri (7/15).   The latest overnight runs have kept the tropical low threat from the gulf away from the area - Euro shifts it east, GFS keeps it offshore and away from the area. 

 

Longer range : The Western Atlantic Ridge is continuing to look like a westwards retrograding extending into the coast and setting up and overall all nationwide above normal regime,

 

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not sure why Newark has so many more 90° days this year than the surrounding stations. The last 5 years Newark has been right in line with other local  stations like Harrison and Caldwell. Maybe they need to send a tech out there to check the calibration.
 

Data for January 1, 2022 through July 9, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17
NJ HARRISON COOP 12
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 9
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 7


 

Data for January 1, 2021 through July 9, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 19
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 19
NJ HARRISON COOP 17
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 16
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 11


 

Data for January 1, 2020 through July 9, 2020
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 12
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 10
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 10
NJ HARRISON COOP 10
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9


 

Data for January 1, 2019 through July 9, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ HARRISON COOP 9
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 9
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 8
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 7
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6


 

Data for January 1, 2018 through July 9, 2018
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ HARRISON COOP 18
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 16
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 15
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 14
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 14
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 12


 

Data for January 1, 2017 through July 9, 2017
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10
NJ HARRISON COOP 10
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 10
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 8

Maybe the weather station at Newark is too close to the tarmac, and as a result gets incorrect temp readings?

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