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July 2022


bluewave
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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day. Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal through the remainder of the month.

There is potential for significant heat to expand into the region during the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +15.63.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.147 today.

On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.564 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.486 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

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6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I missed that one but they got some just to my north 

 

Looks like a more potent will get imby around 730

Unfortunately but not surprisingly they've been falling apart as they move east. Just a light shower here. Thank goodness I got the .75 early this morning.

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The last 3 days of July are averaging  80degs.(72/89) or +2.

Month to date is  79.6[+2.1].      July should end at  79.7[+2.2].

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:   85-90, p. cloudy, rain/TS about 10pm?, 72 tomorrow AM.

75*(85%RH) here at 7am.        80* at 11am.       81* at Noon.       85* at 4pm.         80* at 9pm.

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Newark is currently the warmest and driest July on record with a few days to go.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 82.9 3
2 2011 82.7 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2013 80.9 0
7 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
8 2019 80.6 0
9 1955 80.5 0
10 1988 80.4 0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 0.54 3
2 1932 0.84 0
3 1966 0.89 0
4 1999 1.01 0
5 1955 1.14 0
6 2002 1.19 0
7 1974 1.31 0
8 1998 1.34 0
9 1954 1.45 0
10 1977 1.51 0
- 1957 1.51 0
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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is currently the warmest and driest July on record with a few days to go.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 82.9 3
2 2011 82.7 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2013 80.9 0
7 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
8 2019 80.6 0
9 1955 80.5 0
10 1988 80.4 0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 0.54 3
2 1932 0.84 0
3 1966 0.89 0
4 1999 1.01 0
5 1955 1.14 0
6 2002 1.19 0
7 1974 1.31 0
8 1998 1.34 0
9 1954 1.45 0
10 1977 1.51 0
- 1957 1.51 0

Looks like it'll be close with only modestly warm days ahead.

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like it'll be close with only modestly warm days ahead.

Harrison is having their warmest July so far also. But the heavier rains than Newark kept them a degree cooler. Even if they miss the top spot, it will still be close.
 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81.7 3
2 2020 81.5 0
3 2019 81.4 0
4 2012 81.2 2
5 2010 81.1 2


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1999 0.64 0
2 2002 1.32 0
3 1998 1.45 0
4 2022 1.76 6


 

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