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July 2022


bluewave
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Sunday had the most 100° readings across the area in a long time. There were at least 11 stations that made it to 100°. Newark, Berkeley Twp, and Somerset County reached 102°. So the addition of these new micronet stations shows that Newark really isn’t that unique. People need to look at more than just the NWS hourly round up of major airports to get a full picture of the climate in our area.  So posters on twitter should feel free to join the fuller discussion in this thread rather than issue random tweets that don’t do reflect the actual conditions in our area.
 

NYC micronet

Tremont / Van Nest 101
Corona 101
Fresh Kills 100


OKX forecast zones

Data for July 24, 2022 through July 24, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102
NJ HARRISON COOP 101


Philly forecast zones


 

Data for July 24, 2022 through July 24, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101
NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101


 

Hillsborough-Duke
NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102
Berkeley Twp. NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102
Toms River
NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 100

 

 

 

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The last 7 days of July are averaging  83degs.(75/92) or +5.

Month to date is  79.8[+2.3].        July should end at  80.5[+3.0].

Reached 92 here late yesterday.

Today: 85-89, wind w., wind s., breezy, cloudy, rain late.

81*(85%RH) here at 7am.     83*(78%RH) at 9am.        86* at Noon.       Disappointing TS ^^^ around 3pm.....was  88*  but down to 79* at 3:30pm.

Got up to 90* at 5:15pm.

^^^Looked like this:

1658777040-rAgT6PCpFdo.png

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The continuing marine heatwave in the NW Atlantic has helped Nantucket reach the warmest July on record so far. This part of the Atlantic is one of the fastest warming in the world. So it’s no surprise how many 70°+ Julys Nantucket has had in recent years. 
 

Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 72.8 7
2 2013 72.3 0
3 2010 72.2 0
4 1975 72.0 0
5 2021 71.6 1
- 1952 71.6 0
6 2012 71.2 0
- 1999 71.2 1
7 1949 71.0 0
8 1979 70.6 0
- 1971 70.6 0
9 2020 70.5 0
- 2019 70.5 0
- 2008 70.5 0
10 2015 70.2 0
11 2016 70.0 0
- 1980 70.0 0


6E13345F-4E99-4A18-8936-793E1549A4BC.thumb.jpeg.951d533f38d8d67ca2c2135c20f1471b.jpeg

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and hot. Thunderstorms are likely as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 96°

Philadelphia: 93°

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be cooler.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.8°

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Only a brief period of sun before clouds and storms.  Already clouds pushing into EPA and close to NJ.  We'll see if the 90s streak breaks for all or if any mid day clearing can push temps to continue the heat wave.   More storms overnight and into Tuesday, again ny period of clearing should push temps close to 90 Tue (7/26) and Wed (7/27) before more stronger heat builds back Thu (7/28).  Fri (7/29) more storms with front coming through before a dry/warm weekend as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west.  Warm/humid and overall more rain chances through the end of the month and beyond.

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Relative to the July rankings, several of our stations are at or near the top for July warmth. While Newark is in the lead, White Plains and Danbury are not far behind. A number of stations in the Mount Holly forecast zones are ranking very high also. We can see how many top ranking years there were since the summers became much warmer in 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 83.0 7
2 2011 82.7 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.5 1
2 2022 77.0 7
- 2013 77.0 0
- 2010 77.0 0
3 2020 76.9 0
4 2019 76.8 0
5 1966 76.7 0
- 1955 76.7 2


 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 76.4 8
2 2022 75.9 7
3 2013 75.7 0
4 2020 75.6 0
5 2010 74.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.4 0
2 1994 82.1 0
3 2022 82.0 7
4 2020 81.9 0
5 2012 81.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.5 1
2 2022 78.0 7
- 2020 78.0 0
3 2019 77.5 0
- 2011 77.5 0
4 2013 77.4 0
5 2012 76.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 79.7 0
- 1955 79.7 0
2 2022 79.1 7
- 2013 79.1 0
3 2020 79.0 0
- 2010 79.0 0
4 1901 78.7 0
5 2011 78.5 0
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Hopefully this all pans out to give everyone some excitement today! 

The approach of a cold front to the west will bring the potential
for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms today. A warm and moist
boundary layer will support strong instability with 1500 - 3000 J/kg
of CAPE by the late morning and into the early afternoon. With 0-6
km shear of 30-40 kt, thunderstorms will have ample opportunity to
remain organized and become strong to severe. There remains ample
surface and upper level forcing with an upper level jet streak
allowing for divergence aloft, an approaching vorticity maximum in
the mid-levels, and a surface cold front allowing for lift
through the entire atmosphere. This will likely result in the
development of scattered thunderstorms as early as late morning.
Thunderstorms likely become more widespread and more intense
into the afternoon as instability is maximized. The primary
threat for thunderstorms is damaging wind gusts, though hail,
and a tornado can not be ruled out.

Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 2 - 2.3 inches will allow
for any thunderstorm that develops to produce heavy rainfall with
rates up to or exceeding 1" per hour. This may result in
localized flash flooding, especially in more urban and
vulnerable areas. Poor drainage flooding can be expected in any
thunderstorm. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall today.
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I hope the storms pan out for us too. We really need the rain. We were in a dry gap with last week's storms and probably has been a month or more since we received significant rainfall in Hillsborough.

I saw the MIllstone River near Griggstown was a peculiar shade of bright green on Saturday, and later saw an online article that there is toxic algae bloom. It actually is a bacteria and not algae. I presume the heat and lack of rain have help cultivate that and believe a strong rain will flush it out.

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17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i want to see storms over pa at 2 pm not 9 am

 

Yeah too much junk on the PFT if you ask me.   Last few HRRR runs try to pop stuff 21-23z with the actual front but not much.  I almost think the PFT may be the best shot now...even with the clouds in place it gets here late enough there may be enough heating for it to become more convective

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Newark NJ thermometer just hit 100° five days in a row – but it’s wrong

https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/

Wow!!! 
So this confirms the working theory that since approximately March 2021, in more months than not, Newark temperatures have been running 2 to 3 degrees warmer than reality.

Read More: Newark NJ thermometer hit 100° five days in a row, but it's wrong | https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

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So why would Newark's weather station trend noticeably warmer over the last 15 months? There are two possibilities. One, changes to the local landscape that warmer the microclimate around the Newark Airport station. Or two, which is more likely, the thermistor equipment has drifted a couple degrees warmer and needs to be calibrated or replaced.

Bottom line: Unfortunately, the temperature bias puts a big asterisk on our recent climate record in Newark. More specifically, our recent stretch of five consecutive 100-degree days is suspicious. While we're only talking about approximately a 2 to 3 degree drift, that would make all the difference in whether we hit 100 or not five days in a row.



Read More: Newark NJ thermometer hit 100° five days in a row, but it's wrong | https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Newark NJ thermometer just hit 100° five days in a row – but it’s wrong

https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/

1.) Intuition from a Real Live Meteorologist :rolleyes:

I selected six stations in the region to compare to Newark's monthly mean maximum (high temperature. That included four ASOS stations at Trenton-Mercer Airport, Atlantic City International Airport, Central Park in New York City, and Philadelphia International Airport. :rolleyes:

tossed

 

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