bluewave Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS on the major heat lasting through at least Sunday. The wildcard for Monday will be the timing of the cold front and severe storms. If the front slows down, then we can tack another day onto the major heatwave. 850 mb temperatures rise to around +20C from Wednesday into Saturday. So the warm spots could easily make a run on 100°. The Euro and GFS have 850 mb temperatures peaking at +22C to +24C by Sunday. This means that places that haven’t reached 100° since 2010-2013 could do it on Sunday. Euro 21z Wednesday 21z Sunday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Still no 90 since may 31st! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Past few years have lacked many 90s of memory serves me correct for my area I must go investigate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Well more 90s lately then several years ago actually apparently. 5 times I hit 90 in 2021 6 in 2020 2 in 2019 8 in 2018 1 in 2017 3 in 2016 3 in 2015 1 in 2014 11 in 2013 9 in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Despite the frontal passage, the warm and humid air mass remains in place as heights climb and ridging builds Friday into the weekend. Guidance has 850mb temps in the low 20s(C) by Sunday, which would translate to surface Ts in the upper 90s if it were to verify. In fact, 13z NBM probs have a 20% chance of Central Park hitting 100F on Sunday. While this is unlikely, it does indicate a possibility of an even hotter air mass over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 NYC actually did not hit 90 til about 455pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, uncle W said: the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope... The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Managed to hit 90 now that the wind shifted to westerly, first 90 here since I hit 94 on May 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Fox hit 91. Lol NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Back in NYC and it’s definitely hotter than what it was in DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 West winds shot the temp up to 92 at FRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 that doesn't include the lack of thunder storms until recently and snowfall that was basicly in January only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Topped out at 93. Low was 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope... I haven't looked into it but I think that was a regional thing rather than a larger scale setup. It would be interesting to see if there's a similar delay in the seasonal changes elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: we hit 90 in october three years ago i don't mid if it 90 as long as dewpoints are in the 50's like it will be on friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 was not as bad as i expected today as dewpoints were in the lower 60's today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 High for the day was 94 here. Current temp 91/DP 68/RH 48% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 90.6 & 89.7 in Muttontown & Syosset respectively for the highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 93 earlier, 87 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 The longest heatwave so far this summer is developing. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach or exceed 100° at the height of the heatwave. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -0.43. The SOI was negative for the third consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 13-16, 2022 when the SOI was negative for four consecutive days. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.621 today. On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.734 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.960 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Disgusting outside right now. No breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 7/19 BLM: 95 EWR: 94 JFK: 94 ACY: 94 PHL: 93 LGA: 93 New Brnswck: 93 ISP: 92 TEB: 92 TTN: 92 NYC: 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: West winds shot the temp up to 92 at FRG Yeah. Just noticed that my high for the day of 91.8 wasn’t until 6:40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 90 was the high here. Currently 82/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 94/72 split today...currently 86°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 7/19 BLM: 95 EWR: 94 JFK: 94 ACY: 94 PHL: 93 LGA: 93 New Brnswck: 93 ISP: 92 TEB: 92 TTN: 92 NYC: 90 i guess ewr doesn't have a sensor issue after all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: i guess ewr doesn't have a sensor issue after all Only 1 station on that list has an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Only 1 station on that list has an issue. it rained tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Toasty out there tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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