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July 2022


bluewave
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54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Image

It’ll be sad to see the strong storms over NJ hit the sea breeze wall and collapse later. :( 

Maybe we can salvage a few showers east of the city. Looking like a coastal drought summer developing, delayed but not denied. Until the WAR can build west I think the gorgeous but largely boring pattern continues. 

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32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be sad to see the strong storms over NJ hit the sea breeze wall and collapse later. :( 

Maybe we can salvage a few showers east of the city. Looking like a coastal drought summer developing, delayed but not denied. Until the WAR can build west I think the gorgeous but largely boring pattern continues. 

and models seem to be pushing that back and back...kind of like winter where the big pattern is modeled but never shows up.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Big Ambrose Jet day as the best heat sets up over NJ and interior SE NY again. Much cooler near the South Shore with wind gusts to 35mph. So plenty of blowing sand and dangerous rip currents at the beach today. 
 

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They should issue  dangerous flying umbrella warnings today!

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9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

If/ when the WAR pushs westward does that potential setup greatly increase for possible tropical systems to come up the coast then? 

It depends on exactly how far westward it builds, and what exact position the ridge is in. It can push storms into the coast over the southeastern states or allow them to move up the coast or even force them (less likely) into the Gulf of Mexico. Or if the ridge is too strong, it can even hinder the development of tropical systems. Rules do not usually work in the world of weather because there are so many factors. La Nina ridge usually favors an active Atlantic tropical season but there are exceptions.

WX/PT 

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On 7/11/2022 at 10:37 AM, uncle W said:

I remember back in July 1963 during a breezy cool morning when fallen leaves were blowing around as if it was the Fall...this dry period is a nuisance...

I’m seeing some grumbling about 2000-2001 being a possible analog for this year, which I can see for the triple dip La Niña, and also the -PDO, however, the QBO was going in the opposite direction from what is it now, it was going negative into winter, this year we are going positive and I’m not sure of the solar state back then 

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14 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

my guy skipped my brown lawn this week

We got most in last week but this week is the issue. Will probably  end up doing maybe 50% of our lawns this week. Even the ones with sprinklers are dried out because they are the most damaged by fertilizers 

 

Have not seen things go this dry imby in well over a decade maybe 2 decades

 

There was a year in the mid 90s that was brutal? 95/96 maybe?

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44 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Gonna be a big upwelling day along the beaches. Cold surf coming back? Dropped down into the 50s last time this happened. 

These big onshore flow days actually depress upwelling. The offshore flow days where the heat makes it to the shore actually help upwelling. 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

We got most in last week but this week is the issue. Will probably  end up doing maybe 50% of our lawns this week. Even the ones with sprinklers are dried out because they are the most damaged by fertilizers 

 

Have not seen things go this dry imby in well over a decade maybe 2 decades

 

There was a year in the mid 90s that was brutal? 95/96 maybe?

Yes it's very crispy here in Hillsborough.  I think we had one 0.2" storm two weekends ago and that is it.  I've been watering my lawn but it's just not enough and have given up as there is no point in wasting water.  Just let the dormancy prevail until we get a change.  Sucks for your business though. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

These big onshore flow days actually depress upwelling. The offshore flow days where the heat makes it to the shore actually help upwelling. 

He’s actually correct for the Jersey shore assuming the flow was a little more SW. But you are correct for the island, strong south flow (Ambrose jet) events pile up the warm surface water. Nothing better then a late day body surf sesh in 6 foot wind chop with bathtub warm water!

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42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s actually correct for the Jersey shore assuming the flow was a little more SW. But you are correct for the island, strong south flow (Ambrose jet) events pile up the warm surface water. Nothing better then a late day body surf sesh in 6 foot wind chop with bathtub warm water!

Yeah your warm water was our 54 degree water over the holiday weekend.  

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The models playing catch-up and getting stronger with the Niña as we get closer in time to fall….shades of the last 2 summers: 

 

As a cold and snow lover, I massively dislike this trend, but it’s kinda tough to bet against it right now.  Since the super Niño, we seem to have established a weak to moderate Niña as our base state and the atmosphere has behaved as if we were in a Niña regardless.

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