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July 2022 temperature forecast contest _ scoring remains very close after 7/12 months


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Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Will be sending out reminders as I see the timing of the July 4th weekend is posing a danger of very late entries that I don't want to have to penalize. 

Reminders on the 29th so if you want to save me some effort, enter by 28th you can always edit your entry on the 30th. I don't actually take down the forecasts until the 1st. 

And happy fourth of July. 

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

No late forecasts, yay! (I hate those late penalties) ... 

 

Table of forecasts for July 2022

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck! ____ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.8 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _ +1.5

RJay ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _ +2.0 ___+3.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0

so_whats_happening ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.4 _ +1.6 _ +0.9

Tom _____________________+1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.4

wxallannj ________________+1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ -0.4

Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

 

___ Consensus __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.5

 

wxdude64 ______________+1.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___ +0.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ -0.4

BKViking ________________ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___+2.6 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _+0.8

hudsonvalley21 __________+1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ -0.2

RodneyS ________________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ___+0.5 _+0.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.1

DonSutherland1 _________ +0.5 _ +0.4 _ +0.5 ___+0.8 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 __ 0.0

 

___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Roger Smith ____________ -0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2

 

===========================================

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for IAH, DEN and PHX. 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022

(updates now appearing here)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95

Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90

DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92

so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93

RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95

wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93

BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94

Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93

wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92

Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 

 

___ to Aug 9 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95

 

==============================

Anomalies to 12th _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___________________________-1.4 __+0.8 __+1.2 __ +0.3 __+1.1 __+3.9 __ +2.7 __+2.8 __+0.2*

___ (to 22nd) _____________-0.1 __+1.7 __ +2.5 ___ 0.0 __+0.5__+3.8 __ +4.2 __+3.6 __-0.4* 

 

__ (p29th from GFS) ______ 0.0 __+1.5 __+2.0 __ +1.5 __+1.5__+4.0 __ +3.0 __+3.0 __+1.0

__ (p31st from GFS) ______+0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 __+1.5 __ +2.0

__ final anomalies ________ +0.1 _ +2.0 _ +3.4 __-0.1 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 __ +2.9 __ +1.2 __ +1.9

 

___________

* SEA has missing data on 4th-5th, actual anomaly may be closer to 0.0 

* SEA still has the missing data, -0.4 may be -0.5 after this is sorted out

==================================

 

13th _ Projections are based on subdued but above normal warmth in east and continued heat in west. 

At the moment these projections would score 738 out of 900 for consensus. 

23rd _ New projections blend expected eastern heat with later near average, and sustained western warmth, the current provisionals would score 656 out of 900 for consensus. 

28th _ Adjusted PHX end of month estimate to +2.0 due to some rather cool days there this past week, monsoon thunderstorms in the vicinity and lots of cloud. Hotter here at the US-Canada border than in most of the desert southwest.

30th _ Adjusted DEN and IAH down slightly to +3.0 each ... will be adjusting and finalizing all anomalies over the next 2-3 days. 

31st _ 1st ... Final anomalies are now confirmed, SEA has posted a final anomaly of +1.9 but the CF6 has two missing days that I suspect may appear within a day or two and drop the average closer to +1.6 or so. Will score from +1.9 for now but may change that later. 

(NYC 79.5 4.55" for tables) 1.85" 18th

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final scoring for July 2022

 

SEA reported anomaly of +1.9 has to be checked later as two days missing data could alter the value in a later posting of the CF6. Most scores would change by the same amount also, high score(s) for SEA could be reduced slightly depending on what happens. My estimate is that the missing data will, if inserted into the table, change the anomaly to +1.6.

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

 

so_whats_happening ___ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 __ 68 _ 86 _ 78 __232 __466 __ 90 _ 92 _ 80 __ 262 ___ 728

RodneyS _______________ 92 _ 76 _ 38 __ 206 __ 88 _ 98 _ 70 __ 256 __462 __ 78 _ 88 _ 84 __ 250 ___ 712

Tom _____________________66 _ 98 _ 68 __ 232 __ 56 _ 74 _ 86 __ 216 __448 __ 86 _ 82 _ 90 __ 258 ___ 706

wxallannj ________________72 _ 88 _ 56 __ 216 __ 68 _ 86 _ 92 __ 246 __462 __ 88 _ 98 _ 54 __ 240 ___ 702

___ Consensus __________72 _ 84 _ 52 __ 208 __ 72 _ 84 _ 78 __ 234 __442 __ 86 _ 96 _ 72 __ 254 ___ 696

wxdude64 ______________74 _ 78 _ 46 __ 198 __ 90 _ 82 _ 78 __ 250 __448 __ 84 _ 94 _ 54 __ 232 ___ 680

RJay ____________________52 _ 90 _ 82 __ 224 __ 38 _ 64 _ 82 __ 184 __408 __ 98 64 98 __ 260 ___ 668

hudsonvalley21 _________80 _ 86 _ 50 __ 216 __ 90 _ 84 _ 58 __ 232 __448 __ 68 _ 90 _ 58 __ 216 ___ 664

Scotty Lightning ________72 _ 80 _ 52 __ 204 __ 78 _ 84 _ 82 __ 244 __448 __ 52 _ 96 _ 62 __ 210 ___ 658

BKViking________________76 _ 80 _ 50 __ 206 __ 46 _ 62 _ 90 __ 198 __404 __ 92 _ 84 _ 78 __ 254 ___ 658

StormchaserChuck! ____ 48 _ 84 82 __ 214 __ 38 _ 78 _ 58 __ 174 __388 __ 92 _ 84 _ 92 __ 268 ___ 656

DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _ 42 __ 202 __ 82 _ 94 _ 62 __ 238 __440 __ 58 _ 96 _ 62 __216 ___ 656 

Roger Smith ____________88 _ 52 _ 28 __ 168 __  88 _ 76 _ 62 __ 226 __394 __ 62 _ 86 _ 66 __ 214 ___608

___ Normal ______________98 _ 60 _ 32 __ 190 __ 98 _ 86 _ 42 __ 226 __416 __ 42 _ 76 _ 62 __180 ___ 596

======================================

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA (+0.1) _ Win for DonS and RodneyS (both +0.5) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.5)

NYC (+2.0) _ did not qualify (third warmest forecast high score)

BOS (+3.4) _ Win for RJay and StormchaserChuck (+2.5).

ORD (-0.1) _ Win for wxdude64 and hudsonvalley21 (both +0.4) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.7)

ATL (+0.7) _ Win for RodneyS (+0.8), loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) and Normal (0.0)

IAH (+2.9) _ Win for wxallannj (+2.5)

DEN (+2.9) _ Win for RJay (+3.0)

PHX (+1.2) _ did not qualify, outcome close to consensus forecasts.

SEA (+1.9) _ Win for RJay (+2.0)*

_______

*Data incomplete, result may change if SEA finishes below +1.7. 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-July 2022) _______________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

With many scores similar in July, there were two sets of changes in ranks; so_whats_happening is now third and Tom fourth, while wxallannj is now 6th and hudsonvalley21 is now 7th. Consensus moved up to second place and Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (4154), based on 7/5 times actual score, and with that he would again be just ahead of the total of our 8th ranked forecaster. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________467 _509 _527 __1503 __475 _531_ 396__1402_2905 __486 _578 _439 __1503 ____4408

 

___ Consensus ___________488 _512 _488 __1488__442 _512 _352__1310 _2798__514 _582 _469 __1565 ____4363

 

 

DonSutherland1 ________ 544 _512 _512__1568__504 _478 _288__1270 _2838 __440 _580 _490 __1510 ____4348

so_whats_happening ____432 _494 _536__1462__449 _506_ 356__1311 _2773 __468 _580 _496 __1544 ____4317

Tom _____________________ 485 _519 _471 __1475__440 _487 _461__1388 _2863 __535 _507 _402 __1444 ____4307

RodneyS ________________ 484 _458 _450 __1392__366 _528 _394__1288 _2680 __546 _564 _484__1594____4274

wxallannj ________________430 _448 _448 __1326 __418 _472 _380__1270 _2596 __550 _576 _470 __1596____4192

hudsonvalley21 __________462 _498 _504 __1464__436 _476 _352__1264 _2728__452 _560 _438 __1450____ 4178

BKViking ________________ 490 _498 _460 __1448__398 _462 _334__1194 _2642 __520 _544 _440 __1504____4146

RJay _____________________466 _520 _498 __1484__425 _470 _358__1253 _2737 __480 _474 _407 __1361 ____4098

Scotty Lightning _________446 _478 _470 __1394 __378 _476 _382__1236 _ 2630 __456 _546 _362__1364____3994

_____ Normal _____________488 _466 _420 __1374 __396 _448 _322 __1166 _ 2540 __450 _470 _408__1328____3868

Roger Smith _____________ 388 _360 _266 __1014 __312 _ 374 _328 __1014 _2028 __486 _542 _475__1503____3531

Stormchaser Chuck (5/7)_334 _374 _367 __1075 __298 _ 414 _248 __960 __2035 __304 _373 _255 __932____2967

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 4154 total points. 

=========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0

so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

RodneyS _________________ 1* ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jun

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __  Apr

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred eight times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 46 of 63 forecasts qualify, 20 warmest and 26 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3.

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 __ 12-5 (11-5)

DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0)

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ 1*-0 __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0 _ 6-0 (4.5 -0)

 

____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 __ 5-1

 

RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 __ 5-0 (3.25 - 0)

so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 ___ 2-1 (1.0 - 1)

wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-1 (1.5 -1)

BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 0-0

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to July 2022 temperature forecast contest _ scoring remains very close after 7/12 months
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