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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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Another day with many sites in C/NNE seeing RH under 35-40%.

84/53 up here for 34% but winner looks like Newport, VT with 82/47 for 29%.  MHT 85/53 for 33%.

In SNE, there’s LWM at 87/55 for 33% RH, BED at 86/56 at 35%, FIT at 83/51 at 33%.

Might be a bit before we get back to these levels, but the past 2-3 days have been nice.

Can see the dews starting to move in from the south, CT and SE MA looked more humid today than elsewhere.

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19 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

30 days of high heat in the midwest according to the 30 day GEFS... not as much for us...

 

gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_fh120-456.gif

I dunno... I'd call that pretty hot for us actually.    Two reasons:

One, that area of Nebraska/Kansas and SD are already sitting at a minimum of 925 mb as their surface sigma, and probably closer to 900 or 875 in the western half.  Those anomalies over us mean more for a projected sfc temperature because being 1000 mb down to sea level, east of the Berk's/Mts means the adiabats are extended farther.   d(t)/dp is a shallower differential out there compared to here...  I mean it'll be hotter than here, because moreover to all that, the lowest 25 mb will also slope harder to the right due to superior land/air radiative transfer space.. but when I see +4.5 over climo at 850 mb, for PHL-LGA-BOS-PWM ...which are near sea level, that's really a huge signal.  If climate is 16 to 13, were talking 21 to 18 which is 90+ from an ensemble mean in an aggregate spanning 30 days... that's actually pretty massive. 

Two, that being a mean ... also means that a few members are probably bizonker hot.  The other aspect to the average is that it provides a general arena of enhanced probability for local time scaled extremes that lurch above(below) the longer term mean. 

Conclusion:  You probably don't want to see that above if you are a temperate loving, heat hating sort.

Which means it'll be too warm - most likely ... - if anything. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

30s and 40s?

Was just thinking of your “rains every day” comments… big outdoor concert at Spruce Peak, whole thing set up for 600-800 people, linens on tables, chairs, etc.

And the sky just unloaded water out of no where.

Now they are scrambling to change out everything, just soaked after +RN.

FF7B1B37-3C43-4A09-9BF3-0F9D7034EDC8.thumb.jpeg.de37af5fc7c322706e080d88ef4a6dae.jpeg

A598E427-FD96-497A-BC44-1CB1401F1512.jpeg.678933b556b25512ed32c6b78b0360b4.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Was just thinking of your “rains every day” comments… big outdoor concert at Spruce Peak, whole thing set up for 600-800 people, linens on tables, chairs, etc.

And the sky just unloaded out of no where.

Now they are scrambling to change out everything, just soaked after +RN.

FF7B1B37-3C43-4A09-9BF3-0F9D7034EDC8.thumb.jpeg.de37af5fc7c322706e080d88ef4a6dae.jpeg

A598E427-FD96-497A-BC44-1CB1401F1512.jpeg.678933b556b25512ed32c6b78b0360b4.jpeg

Mount Mansfaialeale

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BTV about Thursday, bolded bit caught my eye:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The main focus of the long term period remains for Thursday. All
ensemble data suggests potential for impactful weather, including
thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall and possibly damaging
wind. The low pressure system passing to our northwest looks to be
the deepest to pass over this region during the 1979 to 2009
climatology for the July 11 - August 1 period, which suggests very
large height falls that will steepen lapse rates and produce
widespread thunderstorms that could tap into strong winds aloft. On
Thursday afternoon, heavy rain potential is shown through PWATs in
excess of 2 standard deviations above the climatological mean,
MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg. The deepest moisture looks to push to
our east ahead of the actual cold front, when potential for
organized thunderstorms should peak. Probabilities of moderate (1000
J/kg) to high SBCAPE (> 2000 J/kg) are greatest in Vermont based on
the most likely timing of the cold front. At the same time, the
pressure gradient over the region and uniform southwesterly flow
will produce impressive winds in the St. Lawrence Valley where the
channeling supports enhanced non-thunderstorm gusts potentially
in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the afternoon.
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Thursday looks about as close to ideal synoptic parametrics for supercell propagation through New England that I can recall observing in guidance.  The Higher res Euro even has a right turning cluster of dense  QPF nodes moving S of the environmental steering, from S VT to NW RI...  GFS has the synoptic layout, but lacks the discrete resolution ..otherwise, they're identical.

Not likely to survive the next 84 hours modeling perturbation but that's a helluva set up - for now.

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I'm wondering if short duration/ small scale areal coverage FF warns for excessive rare-rates Monday afternoon and evening should be considered?  

Low amplitude, but sufficiently lowering heights aloft evolving over the  top of guidance blended 67 to 74 DP ...along and S of a RUT-PWM ...west to east through New England. May even be milk sun/modest heating in the morning.  Looks like slow moving heavier results relative to DBZ.  Any cores over 45 are likely to lower visibility to < 1/3 of mile with rapid ponding on roadways and/or low collecting points. 

Lesser considered factor ... erstwhile desiccated top soil types are actually primed for rapid run-off/responding low areas to 'fill' before absorption.  

I mean... these kind of events hit the evening news some how some times - may as well try to identify the framework ahead.  Primary risk for that would be along White Plains NY to Concord NH with less SE and variable in the over-arcing mountainous terrain.  I could see cells moving lower to moderate speed with rate rates exceeding rad returns given that ginormous PWAT air.  More sfc heating than modeled? ...if a doable now cast, things might be interesting.

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Meh... clouds look hopelessly slammed shut from 15z onward ...but still, with DPs 73-ish and deep in the bottom of the sounding ( something we haven't seen much of this season btw -), it's still interesting with those modest hgt falls meandering over top in the afternoon.  Damn...just a little more sun.

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