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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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38 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

312D0939-E520-4947-B762-645C4BA85B64.jpeg

Let's hope! Shear actually doesn't look terrible. If we destabilize as the NAM shows there should be some decent storms about. NAM showing some pretty steep low-level lapse rates which would help with wind potential. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's hope! Shear actually doesn't look terrible. If we destabilize as the NAM shows there should be some decent storms about. NAM showing some pretty steep low-level lapse rates which would help with wind potential. 

Feeling any better today about this “threat” as opposed to yesterday, Wiz?

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13 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Feeling any better today about this “threat” as opposed to yesterday, Wiz?

I guess there is two ways to look at it...convective potential vs. severe potential.

In terms of convective potential, it looks pretty solid to get an organized line to develop (or at least a broken line). I'm excited for this aspect. 

In terms of severe potential I don't think it's anything to write home about. There will probably be scattered wind damage with the line but nothing widespread. Despite the fact that mid-level lapse rates are poor and the strongest shortwave forcing is along/north of the International border, if low-level winds were like 10-15 knots stronger, given how steep the low-level lapse rates may become we may of had room for a bit more in the way of wind damage potential.

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I guess there is two ways to look at it...convective potential vs. severe potential.

In terms of convective potential, it looks pretty solid to get an organized line to develop (or at least a broken line). I'm excited for this aspect. 

In terms of severe potential I don't think it's anything to write home about. There will probably be scattered wind damage with the line but nothing widespread. Despite the fact that mid-level lapse rates are poor and the strongest shortwave forcing is along/north of the International border, if low-level winds were like 10-15 knots stronger, given how steep the low-level lapse rates may become we may of had room for a bit more in the way of wind damage potential.

I’d honestly settle for a gusty tstorm at this point 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I just really want lots of lightning/thunder and a nice looking shelf cloud. Anything else is always a bonus. 

This is like a winter weenie in Pensacola hoping to just see a flake fall through the deck light.

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah wow, remember when people said Stein was no big deal, not worth watching...now here we are

drier than average does not equal drought, no matter what that clown tweets out.

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Into that time of year when sustained heat arrives.  Wish the one day heat of 80s would persist through the weekend to be honest.  Highs in the low to mid 70s on the zone forecast Sunday through Thursday.

In this age of AGW, you expect a torch 24/7 but it just hasn't been there and really no hemispheric signs that it materializes through the 7-10 day.

Friday... Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday... Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday... Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Sunday Night Through Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.

Tuesday... Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday... Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday Night And Thursday... Mostly clear. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.

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Temperatures...

An unremarkable temperature forecast for the extended forecast
period, with no big intrusions of especially hot or cold air
expected. 850 mb temps hover around 12-13C each day which will lead
to surface highs in the 80s each day, perhaps a bit cooler behind
Tuesday`s shortwave.

 

oh only 80's

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and I think the peak is July 20th too and the first half of the month still does not have a big heat signal. 

Someone on here opined a while back that the May heat blast might have been the biggest one for the season.  
 

I doubt that happens but it would be interesting if it did

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