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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This pattern seems pretty stable now.  I’ll wait for a Tippy post about the long wave indices, he usually covers that stuff well,  but not sure what it would take to really rock the boat now and switch it up.  The persistent SE Canada trough seems locked in.

 

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Love that trough

As boring as it is, it’s nice. Keep the trough for now while Atlantic climo is meh and then flip to a ridge over the top and Great Lakes trough in August and September when tropical season kicks into high gear. ;)

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37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

As boring as it is, it’s nice. Keep the trough for now while Atlantic climo is meh and then flip to a ridge over the top and Great Lakes trough in August and September when tropical season kicks into high gear. ;)

That's actually not quite the idealized pattern for us ... but I get what your after.  Close.

We need a +NAO --> -NAO that's biasing the western limb.  And the "-->" is important, as in modality more so than the mode.

The reason for that is because a ridge in Ontario with a trough down through the TV causes hurricane to move parabolically seaward before getting to our latitude.  In order to 'ensure' a track that sends the analog signal, you need heights rising N-/E of NS, such that the deep later steering flow around the eastern trough 'relay's the escaping TC into a continuation along a west oriented path. 

If one thinks about that... it sort of makes sense that the statistical climate implies it is harder to do so.. because that requires a larger 'machinery of cogs' to operate in sync - it's just going to be harder to realize that in a broader hemispheric-scaled dynamic. 

 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tough start for the dew lovers, but I’m sure the dog days will deliver. Once that SE Can trough is booted there won’t be much to save us from the heat ridge trying to bulge in. 

It’s a confusing process… but yeah if that trough leaves we will bake for a while.  Nothing to stop that central ridge from moving in.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

FIT had a dew of 34° earlier. :lol:

image.gif

I've wondered about the KFIT sensor enough to even be suspicious of it.  It's too often in a DP hole like that by huge numbers (relatively) compared to the surrounding obs.   But who knows - maybe there is something particular about that site that claims water out of the air -

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44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Men and Women in suits taking brochure pictures everywhere

 We COC

Thank goodness.  Stepped off the plane at BDL last night after several days of upper teens/ low 20s dews in the Sierras and it was like I had hopped into a bowl of soup.   But this is quite pleasant indeed.

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41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've wondered about the KFIT sensor enough to even be suspicious of it.  It's too often in a DP hole like that by huge numbers (relatively) compared to the surrounding obs.   But who knows - maybe there is something particular about that site that claims water out of the air -

 

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NW flow mixing out pockets of real dry air?

Lots of pockets with dews in the 30s today. 
image.png

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NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked...

But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat.

Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites.  It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness.  

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked...

But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat.

Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites.  It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness.  

Yeah I’m not sure I can remember a July air mass with RH values so low.

BDL at 84/39 for 20% RH is some early spring before leaf out type of RH.

FIT has been sitting 18% RH.  Dry, dry, dry.

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I’m not sure I can remember a July air mass with RH values so low.

BDL at 84/39 for 20% RH is some early spring before leaf out type of RH.

FIT has been sitting 18% RH.  Dry, dry, dry.

It actually fits my seasonal lag hypothesis/narrative  ;)   ( not a condescending wink just sayn')

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NAM nailed this btw - not that anyone cares or asked...

But I posted a blurb about those grid numbers the other night, and how desiccating the air mass would be today under tall sun open skies and lingering heat.

Which also...it's 84 to 86 around NWS and homes sites.  It's not a cool day by any stretch of fairness.  

83/51 here with bright blue skies for July is money in the bank though. Can’t beat it. 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It was 55F and drizzle here exactly 1 year ago from right now.

Remember 10 days ago ... when the operational GFS was so dogmatically too cold in its usual dependable embarrassment, by grappling the White's in 534 dm thicknesses ...   ?

Prediction:  there is a 100% probability that 0% of users in here will remember that/this bias the GFS has this next Nov 10 when it's has a white Thanx Giggedy

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74/48.

 

Folks having cookouts, lighting fireworks, splashing around the pool, simply enjoying the great weather!

Drunk old bald man , alone, finishing off another 4 pack by the humidifier shaking his fist at the sky.

 

We tried to tell him...

 

 

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BOX reads minds.  They aren’t confused.

“After the cold front passage late Tuesday, the upper level pattern features a mean trough which will allow daytime highs during the remainder of the week to be below to near normal. For reference, typical daytime highs are in the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast. From a climatological standpoint, we are fast approaching the highest average temps in the year. So no real big heat in the horizon during the hottest time of the year!”

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