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Winter 2022-23


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23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just saying to someone last week that he have had a slew of 1950s like winters over the course of the past several years, and we may be heading into a stretch more akin to the 1960s moving forward.

That would be it.

That's not weenism is it? Lol

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14 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_8.png

Alright guys we just need this pattern to hold for *opens calculator* for 13,888 more hours, the big ones are sniffed out early right? 

Wonder how much money it costs to run that model that far out. If it is more than $1 then it is ridiculous 

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I wonder how much it costs the Canadians to run the CanSIPS? New edition implies a 'close the shades' type winter. Has the broad, flat Pacific ridge south of the Aleutians and +AO/NAO for the entire winter. Lucky for us the CFS is not as bad. :rolleyes:

 

cansips_z500a_namer_7.png

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ain't right to have to suffer this many la ninas...as far as I'm concerned, it's all shut the dang blinds, smh I'm not getting exhausted by pointless tracking again.

It's a bit early for this lol.

Chill.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a bit early for this lol.

Chill.

No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here?

Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow.

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50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here?

Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow.

It's going to be pretty modest next winter...its not a "game over" proposition. We just had a weak el nino a few years ago act more like an el nino...it can go both ways. That said, I wouldn't expect a monster mid atl snow season. Can't necessarily say the same for 2023-2024. ;)

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No it ain't! La nina is still goin' and I'm hearing expectations of it to restrengthen in August/September. What am I missing here?

Btw I'll have exhausted my angst before this winter...and if/when this winter looks just like last year I'll just be kinda checked out. Probably still a bit frustrated but definitely not checkin' anything on the Zs'. I'm emotionally exhausted looking for snow.

from CPC/NCEP-

In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance..

 

Most likely we are looking at a weak Nina for Fall/early Winter, trending neutral towards early 2023.

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Yeah, it's been record +SOI. They show it's going to last next 4 weeks, until Aug 1 just as strong. N. Hemisphere is disconnected right now though. I think CanSHIPS shows what it is in stability. After following weather for so long and doing research, somethings start to show up. 

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12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO seasonal for January…not showing torch December.

6E0B5A7F-7C78-49C2-8CC3-0A7990D8FBE3.png

9E14A7E9-83F1-4056-8044-EBFED5EFD038.png

8ABE2BD1-9D01-46C7-9B70-FB70C4FC336E.png

There are some signs that this la nina may try to go more central based than last year's, which was heavily eastern biased. That would likely mean a pretty good likelihood of a better December and worse mid season relative to last year. Caveat being that la nina should also be less prominent, which inherently makes ENSO more of a wildcard.

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hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC

three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy

some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58

here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries:

1236266976_23-24analogsD-F.png.7d1dded09c32a57ca1553125d5171dd7.png1200667875_23-24analogsF.png.22e936bfd6ce15222aa436d453db55de.png

the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!)

so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient!

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7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC

three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy

some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58

here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries:

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNAThis plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!)

so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient!

I ain't got time to bleed, or wait til February snows.  What's it take for a Garrett county December to remember?

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