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Winter 2022-23


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Looking at the MJO, PNA and NAO forecast I am kind of bullish about the mid December time period. The MJO looks to make it to 8 and the long range models all have a pretty strong -NAO with good west coast ridging around the same time period. I know that isnt an ideal time of year temp wise for the coastal plain. But the cold air has been decent so far this fall. And those of us to the west might have a legit chance during that period at least. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

HM getting NSFW

 

There are some similarities (nothing is ever a perfect match) to 1995 right now, seems he might be buying into that progression.  I'm seeing it...but staying reserved.  I've let good early season tea leaves fool me before.  I figure if this does go to that rare Nina win GREAT and I will be excited and thrilled I busted but no reason to get my hopes up and change my expectations yet.  

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Not a fan of seeing a ssw event this early tbh. It is like playing russian roulette with the pattern evolution. Takes the right mix of everything at a strat level to hit the jackpot. But can also muck up what could potentially be something really good. I like it in deep winter when we've had fail after fail just to try and shake things up. Not a huge fan where, for example, CFS and others are showing us headed down the yellow brick road into mid December. Guess it's a chance we have to live with at any time tho. 

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Isn't 1995 one of the warmest Novembers on record in the West? It's honestly been f-cking freezing here. It's like 50/50 this is a top 20 cold November locally for the past 100 years honestly. Coldest November month to date here since 2000. Still ~5F warmer than 11/2000 though.

I have a hard time seeing how 1995 is anything like this year really.

It's not like the cold is forecast to retreat out here anytime soon either.

Screenshot-2022-11-22-5-56-12-PM

Screenshot-2022-11-22-5-56-01-PM

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@raindancewx the comparison is based on solid ensemble consensus for traditional high latitude blocking and the fact that we (in the mid Atlantic) are often dependent in that type of feature in ANY nina if we want winter at all. 

How long it last or even if it materializes are unknown but the look is classic. If early Dec is showing a piece of what winter has in store then mid Atlantic people will enjoy it. I have no thoughts about the west on this stuff. Nobody here broad brushes the US with winter thoughts in areas outside of "home"

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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@raindancewx the comparison is based on solid ensemble consensus for traditional high latitude blocking and the fact that we (in the mid Atlantic) are often dependent in that type of feature in ANY nina if we want winter at all. 

How long it last or even if it materializes are unknown but the look is classic. If early Dec is showing a piece of what winter has in store then mid Atlantic people will enjoy it. I have no thoughts about the west on this stuff. Nobody here broad brushes the US with winter thoughts in areas outside of "home"

I feel like the Pacific is less favorable than 1995, which is why you guys may need to wait until January to deliver and then maybe a parting shot in March?

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the Pacific is less favorable than 1995, which is why you guys may need to wait until January to deliver and then maybe a parting shot in March?

We're pretty irregular down here with any and all sets of tele's. Our snow needs timing far more than up north. So any pattern that repeats air cold enough to snow can get it done even if jacked up. 

Big storms are different and Dec is not a big storm month here. We've had numerous 2-6" snowfalls splattered in all enso phases. More common in the first half of the month. It's a weird quirk in DC. Dec snow is rare except around Dec 5th give or take lol. Stats back it up.

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