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Winter 2022-23


Ji
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is what I was referring to when I suggested that the eruption could lead to a warmer SH strat this winter.

There are so many theories floating around twitter right now because no one knows what it’s going to do this winter. Everything from nothing (doubtful) to warm stratosphere to cold stratosphere to SPV on roids to record weak SPV. If anyone says they know for sure what’s going to happen they are lying or wishcasting. There are no similar events to look back on, this was a historic volcanic eruption in respect to the H2O vapor released into the stratosphere with nothing even close to being comparable 

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6 hours ago, mattie g said:

And the NAO was of no help in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015...

EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise. 

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise. 

Yeah it'e literally tough sledding here, lol In a slightly unrelated note...I'm still wondering what the 60s were smoking...How in the world, with our climo being the way it is (perhaps a little easier back then, but even for that period it was unusual) did we string together that many above average seasons??

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13 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise. 

In addition to the strong -EPO/-WPO there was ++PNA and a ridiculously ++PDO. Purely PAC driven winters. The NAO and AO were positive as hell those 2 winters 

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16 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise. 

For sure. The point we were making (or at least I was making) is that ringing the death knell for a winter based on one or a few teleconnections not lining up perfectly is silly. It might take some luck, but just because X, Y, and Z aren't in their prime state doesn't mean we're going to suck eggs all winter long.

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I'm not sure about snowfall, but this is what I'm currently thinking for temperature departures:

November: torch (maybe warmest ever?)

December: -1 to -2

January: 0 to +1

February: +4

March: -2

The thinking is an eastern trough in the first half of meteorological winter with a ridge in the second half, with the trough returning in March. 

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1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I'm not sure about snowfall, but this is what I'm currently thinking for temperature departures:

November: torch (maybe warmest ever?)

December: -1 to -2

January: 0 to +1

February: +4

March: -2

The thinking is an eastern trough in the first half of meteorological winter with a ridge in the second half, with the trough returning in March. 

Leaning towards this kind of thinking/temp departures, too. 

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On 6/15/2022 at 9:32 PM, raindancewx said:

It's very early, but compared to last year I'd wager -

- Less blocking, even thought it was only transient last year.

- Much wetter nationally, with a stronger subtropical jet, especially early and late winter.

- I do think where I am is favored for a cool winter believe it or not. It's unlikely we'll match the coldness of the 2021-22 La Nina. Any warm up in the tropical Pacific y/y favors cold in the Southwest. It won't be wet though. There is a window in the years with matching temperature and precipitation data nationally that consistently shows a wet period in the West in Oct-Dec though. If an El Nino somehow developed, I would expect a very wet winter nationally, with no particular severe cold or heat.

The dryness last winter was mostly ignored - but it was remarkable. It's one of the stronger correlation to -PDO winters though. Something like 80% of the country was drier than average by at least 20%?

 

As promised.

ImageImage

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If there was any question whether or not the Hunga Tonga eruption will reach the northern hemisphere’s stratosphere by winter, that has now been answered. The only question that remains is what effect will this have on the SPV? 

 

Good. The enso/solar/QBO combo is all horrendous right now.  Adding a wildcard can only help. Can’t hurt since prospects for a -AO were pretty awful to begin with. 

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And besides region 4 being cold, this Niña is about to strengthen, there are still extremely cold subsurface anomalies and there is yet another very strong Easterly Wind Burst in progress: 

 

We've been hearing this for months....how many tweets have you posted about how strong la nina was getting all summer long?? Yet, over yonder....in reality, the ONI has risen four consecutive months.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We've been hearing this for months....how many tweets have you posted about how strong la nina was getting all summer long?? Yet, over yonder....in reality, the ONI has risen four consecutive months.

How many times do I have to tell you I don’t think it’s going strong? 20? 30? I have said moderate all along and possibly high end moderate since July and I believe it’s going to peak come late November or December 

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Accuweather says only 3-5 days of falling snowfall for DC this winter. Winter is over. Where is Ji?

"This winter, AccuWeather is predicting that Washington, D.C., will experience accumulating snow on only three to five days throughout the season with total accumulations amounting to 6 to 10 inches, just below the average of 13.7 inches."

snow-forecast-cities.jpg?w=632

 

Winter-Highlights-2022-2023-Compared-To-Normal.jpg?w=632

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not you. The people on Twitter.

Just be patient, you will get your Modoki El Niño next winter. IMO this Niña isn’t going officially neutral/La Nada until the beginning of April give or take. This is a very healthy Niña event (which I believe is going to be solidly moderate) we are in the midst of right now

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just be patient, you will get your Modoki El Niño next winter. IMO this Niña isn’t going officially neutral/La Nada until the beginning of April give or take. This is a very healthy Niña event (which I believe is going to be solidly moderate) we are in the midst of right now

First quad Nina next year?

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2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Accuweather says only 3-5 days of falling snowfall for DC this winter. Winter is over. Where is Ji?

"This winter, AccuWeather is predicting that Washington, D.C., will experience accumulating snow on only three to five days throughout the season with total accumulations amounting to 6 to 10 inches, just below the average of 13.7 inches."

snow-forecast-cities.jpg?w=632

 

Winter-Highlights-2022-2023-Compared-To-Normal.jpg?w=632

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Looks reasonable 

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