Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,128
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Newest Member
    Jdhuffmanhws
    Joined

June 13 Severe Event


 Share

Recommended Posts

I am also concerned about the 700 mb cap in IL and IA and whether it will SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
311 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022  
  
WIC025-027-055-132115-  
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220613T2115Z/  
DANE WI-JEFFERSON WI-DODGE WI-  
311 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT  
FOR EASTERN DANE...JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...  
  
AT 310 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SUN PRAIRIE,  
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES, AND POWER LINES   
         DOWN IN PARTS OF MADISON AND MIDDLETON.  
  
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO   
         MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
EASTERN MADISON, SUN PRAIRIE, FITCHBURG, WATERTOWN, STOUGHTON, FORT  
ATKINSON, OREGON, JEFFERSON, MCFARLAND, MONONA, LAKE MILLS, MARSHALL,  
WATERLOO, COTTAGE GROVE, JOHNSON CREEK, DEERFIELD, CAMBRIDGE, LAKE  
RIPLEY, IXONIA AND ROME.  succeed in breaking later today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro.

Front is right through Cook county at present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro.

Front is right through Cook county at present.

ILX.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wondering if that cell will eventually become the northern bookend of a bow.  Or if it will remain discrete for a while.  CAMS say the upscale growth will probably happen over Lake Michigan.  I think the line will start to build build south into the extreme instability over northern Indiana.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC definitely seems to be leaning into those cells over southern WI growing upscale and taking advantage of the environment into this evening with that moderate upgrade. With that said, they also didn't trim the ENH at all (in fact, at least in the Cleveland area, they may have expanded it slightly farther northeast with this update). The stuff over Wisconsin, if it grows upscale, will dive SE into extreme SW MI, northern/eastern IN and into western OH, so I wonder if they're thinking another MCS tries developing tonight a litte farther north/east. 

That cap is probably breakable in northeast IL, but the activity over WI needs to start growing upscale pretty soon or else it may not do it into northeast IL. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The question for me over the next couple hours is whether the Madison cell will be a graze job near the IL/WI border or if it can build more decisively into parts of Chi metro.

Front is right through Cook county at present.

Not looking like its going to make it far enough south unless it takes a hard R turn. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Not looking like its going to make it far enough south unless it takes a hard R turn. 

Indeed.  It only has the slightest south of due east motion right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Part of the reason why this thing has struggled to grow upscale, besides the stable lower levels, is because the better ascent is fleecing with the MCV having already pushed into MI. Hopefully not a "too little, too late" situation.

Even so, that cell means business for the relatively small area in its path with the shear in place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Crazy amount of lightning with those storms in Southern WI. Nearly 700 strikes per minute.

Leaving my parents' house in Stoughton around 3 PM I could see 2, sometimes 3 CGs hitting at the same time straight ahead of me as I drove north on County N to the I-30/90 interchange. Of course, it stopped/moved on as soon as I got my phone set up on the dash mount and rolling video. Drove through the southern edge of the RFD region with a quick burst of near-blinding rain.

Lots of leaves/small limbs down all the way down the Beltline Highway (at various point some combination of US 12/14/18/151) to the west side of Madison where my apartment is. Some medium limbs down on High Point Road but that's the worst I saw.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

STWatch coming shortly for S MI/NE IN/NW OH - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html

 

mcd1147.gif

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern
   Indiana...and northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 132149Z - 132345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be
   the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the
   area.

   DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large
   hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over
   southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints
   and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to
   destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the
   same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which
   should further aid in convective organization with
   east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains
   somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the
   downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient
   upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established
   rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued
   shortly for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...