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Central PA Summer 2022


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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Both the CMC and GFS are less "hot" LR now.   When @Itstrainingtime mentioned the Euro heat for next week, I did not check and now see it is predicting Central SC gets up to 115-120?   Not sure that is believable.  LOL.  GFS and CM have the same area between 100-105. 

Euro heat depictions are like a summer "clown map".

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A lot of rumbles and gutter gushing early this morning but I was a little dismayed to only find .21" in the gauge.  Also didn't appear to be much in the way of wind.  I must say, for what was an impressive feature on radar, it seemed to underperform on the ground. 

Ran into alot of stable air by the time it got to Lancaster County.

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1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Ran into alot of stable air by the time it got to Lancaster County.

Yeah it must have, but you wouldn't have known that with how it blossomed on the radar right over us.  A bit of fool's gold, but still pleased to get some beneficial rains.  I'm running pretty much right at average for the year, with 18.24" YTD.

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15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A lot of rumbles and gutter gushing early this morning but I was a little dismayed to only find .21" in the gauge.  Also didn't appear to be much in the way of wind.  I must say, for what was an impressive feature on radar, it seemed to underperform on the ground. 

Looks like you may get another shot in ~ 3 hours. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Definitely this time.  Will not say never but 115-120...LOL.

I have a hard time believing dew points will be in the low 40s in South Carolina in late June, especially while it’s muggy up here, which is what I would think allows those readings to be achieved.

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Been keeping an eye on that backend piece but I believe it was supposed to weaken as it approached, and sure enough, it seems to be doing just that.

The HRRR has it expanding and becoming better organized so will see.  3K did not have it as energetic as it moved through. 

 

Edit-Well the "new HRRR" is not as rainy.  Hourly changes for ya. 

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5 minutes ago, TimB said:

I have a hard time believing dew points will be in the low 40s in South Carolina in late June, especially while it’s muggy up here, which is what I would think allows those readings to be achieved.

Yea, and I am one to say that the models are always right when it comes to their output using what they had input.  They are doing what they are programmed to do.  But something is fouled up prior to that day causing the egregiously crazy heat.   

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, and I am one to say that the models are always right when it comes to their output using what they had input.  They are doing what they are programmed to do.  But something is fouled up prior to that day causing the egregiously crazy heat.   

Don’t get me wrong, the GFS and CMC also mix dewpoints into the comfortable range down there, but upper 50s, not near 40, and I think that’s probably more reasonable. Makes sense to me that temps would torch if humidity cratered like that under a massive ridge. I just don’t see it happening.

Regardless, signs are definitely pointing to the ridge reloading next week, perhaps with a vengeance.

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Just now, TimB said:

Don’t get me wrong, the GFS and CMC also mix dewpoints into the comfortable range down there, but upper 50s, not near 40, and I think that’s probably more reasonable. Makes sense to me that temps would torch if humidity cratered like that under a massive ridge. I just don’t see it happening.

Regardless, signs are definitely pointing to the ridge reloading next week, perhaps with a vengeance.

We (especially East of the Allegheny's)  have been very fortunate so far.  We are 1/6th of the way through summer and although it has been warm and above average, the oppressive heat being seen just to our West has been little issue here.  My take on the LR as of today is that there is little to stop the heat from continuing to pester the US the next week to 10 days but we seem to be in this pattern of the Atlantic blocking saving the North East and not seeing much stopping that yet.  Once into the mid 200's, on the GFS and CMC, the ridge is dissipating a bit. 

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