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91L, (aka PTC1 and Alex) tropical season starting on time in June


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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I never even realized he was a poster

When he was a doctoral student, he was a red tagger here.  He is still on Twitter, but he doesn't identify his employer.  But his name shows up in TC discussions, originally as a second name/apprentice, but he now issues forecasts and discussions alone. 

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1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Don't know if NHC will pull the trigger at 5 PM but it probably is a tropical depression at this point.

When they go to the secret track for SHIPS (the model consensus, not medium steering) is when they are close to pulling the trigger.  Not there yet,

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4 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

Well, I’m supposed to be towing a camper from east Tampa to west of Jax on Saturday, heading to Savannah but the timeline may have to be flexible.


.

Based on the current trends, I-4 from Tampa to Jacksonville seems to be the cutoff of the impacts. You'd probably miss the bad stuff. 

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3 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said:

Well, I’m supposed to be towing a camper from east Tampa to west of Jax on Saturday, heading to Savannah but the timeline may have to be flexible.


.

So far we in Tampa Bay are north. Could be some thunderstorms pop up, we even had a tiny tornado last night. You will probably be fine. Still pay attention...

image.thumb.png.d4d0e1210ebfe6ba364bbb6a06234879.png

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Recon en route 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion 
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level 
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or 
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during 
the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, 
the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor 
the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings 
will likely be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely 
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during 
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida 
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern 
Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to 
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Gotta think we'll get a PTC, TD, or TS at 5pm along with warnings/watches as impacts in South Florida will likely be starting within 24 hours of then. 

I doubt we see a name at 5pm. Looks like a PTC to me as I don’t really see a tight low level center based on recon.

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First outer rainband moving through right as Tropical Storm Watch was issued. Started with lots of rolling thunder, followed by a blast of 30 mph gusts and heavy rain, and now it's been a moderate rain for a long time. Very exciting stuff! :)

Also, this rainband was the leading edge of the big cloud mass that comprises the storm. We're truly in the cyclone from now until it's over.

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Interesting weather, I was out at the beach all day in Clearwater about an hour away from my house in Northern Tampa/Wesley Chapel area. Tons of sun and no rain at the beach, about 1/2 way home starts to rain, by the time I’m home I have a flooded back yard and street. So whatever band or outskirts hit this area must have hit pretty good. Still some Thunder/lightning and light rain 

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Tropical Storm Warnings now in effect for the Keys, all of South Florida, and alot of Central Florida. Track shifted a bit south, cause I wasn't even in cone before, but now I'm in the actual cone.

085822_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.956a0f094e6e24a7ad5cd6c2756611d8.png

Recon found that this has tropical storm force winds, but the center was ever so narrowly unclosed. However, in storm relative motion it obviously is a closed tropical cyclone. We could easily see this declared Tropical Storm Alex by 11 am.

recon_AF305-0201A-SURVEY.thumb.png.7a3654a25241e4962e0952f49e819978.png

Also, really cool feature passing by South Florida right now. A secondary circulation generated by all the deep convection yesterday has become exposed, showing up good on both satellite and radar. And it has a decent amount of inclement weather swirling around it, so a big swath of rain is spreading over South Florida as this secondary mid-level circulation passes by.

2ndvort1.gif.44d79b5a62d0f84115f8255756f8041a.gif

Of course, the fact such a feature exists is a tell-tale sign of the powerful shear that is warping this tropical cyclone. There is some serious diurnal max convection going up, but the convection is quite elongated and almost completely off to the east of the center.

That being said, in a case like this, it's possible convection will wrap around center at some point, and I've seen scenarios where that leads to really fast intensification and very severe weather around the center in sheared systems. 

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2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Tropical Storm Warnings now in effect for the Keys, all of South Florida, and alot of Central Florida. Track shifted a bit south, cause I wasn't even in cone before, but now I'm in the actual cone.

085822_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.956a0f094e6e24a7ad5cd6c2756611d8.png

Recon found that this has tropical storm force winds, but the center was ever so narrowly unclosed. However, in storm relative motion it obviously is a closed tropical cyclone. We could easily see this declared Tropical Storm Alex by 11 am.

recon_AF305-0201A-SURVEY.thumb.png.7a3654a25241e4962e0952f49e819978.png

Also, really cool feature passing by South Florida right now. A secondary circulation generated by all the deep convection yesterday has become exposed, showing up good on both satellite and radar. And it has a decent amount of inclement weather swirling around it, so a big swath of rain is spreading over South Florida as this secondary mid-level circulation passes by.

2ndvort1.gif.44d79b5a62d0f84115f8255756f8041a.gif

Of course, the fact such a feature exists is a tell-tale sign of the powerful shear that is warping this tropical cyclone. There is some serious diurnal max convection going up, but the convection is quite elongated and almost completely off to the east of the center.

That being said, in a case like this, it's possible convection will wrap around center at some point, and I've seen scenarios where that leads to really fast intensification and very severe weather around the center in sheared systems. 

Seems like the type of storm that could tighten/strengthen over land

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Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs.
91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan.
NEXT...       

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15 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Being a transplant from MA. I've always wanted to experience the fury of Mother Nature. The snowstorms, Noreasters, lived through them all. They're all docile compared to a tropical entity. Since being in FL I've had second thoughts, not worth risking life, property and living conditions. Go a week without electric in the Summer heat, most would agree it suxs.
91L is weak sauce I'll be lucky to see winds in the 20-25mph range. Right sided storms just don't cut it. Still fascinating watching the LL swirls getting shredded with the "fixed' open position N of the Yucatan.
NEXT...       

I’m a Masshole too lol! Rain will be the biggest problem down here; although it has been fairly dry over the last month where I am areas south of Palm Beach of had 6-12”. 

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