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Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2022 Discussion


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Looking at the HRRR and RAP they aren’t really showing much if any convective development this afternoon.
 
Hires NAM shows it a bit more, but all of the models show a very broken line and large breaks right over us. 

Radar is starting to develop out in central Ohio. Looking a little more robust than the earlier runs of the models


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Just now, north pgh said:

MD 1191 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 1191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

   Areas affected...northeastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...

   Valid 161931Z - 162100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms, will continue eastward with a risk for
   damaging wind gusts and hail. Storms with supercellular
   characteristics are maturing suggesting a localized greater severe
   potential downstream into PA.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
   scattered thunderstorms maturing ahead of a pre frontal trough/lake
   breeze boundary across portions of northeastern OH and northwestern
   PA. Supercell characteristics have emerged on two of the more
   dominant storms (Ashtabula/Trumbull and Wayne/Holmes counties) in OH
   suggesting a locally greater risk of damaging wind gusts and severe
   hail. While lapse rates are not particularly steep (7 C/km), 40+ kt
   of effective shear from the 19z PBZ special sounding should continue
   to support supercells capable damaging winds and potentially hail
   near 2 inches. Additional severe storm development will be possible
   farther west into central OH, though uncertainty remains higher.

   ..Lyons.. 06/16/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40847917 40357930 40257969 40128032 40148083 40148185
               40118275 40358279 40848212 41528111 41848033 41947964
               41887931 41727921 41537915 41077915 40847917 
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We MIGHT get lucky. The northern cluster will miss us to the north and that cluster in Ohio likely will go south. There is still rain and convection in between but not to the levels of those two other groups. 
 

Just will have to watch how it develops. 

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21 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yep…looks like we will split the gap here at least with this first cluster. Really good news. 

Yeah, that is good news.  Would we like it to cool down quicker, sure, but I'd rather there be less damage and stay hot, than be comfortable and damage be crazy.

 

That 74 degree may hold on through midnight.

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2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, that is good news.  Would we like it to cool down quicker, sure, but I'd rather there be less damage and stay hot, than be comfortable and damage be crazy.

 

That 74 degree may hold on through midnight.

Going to be close but already 76 at PIT. Interesting that this thing was completely dry.

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13 minutes ago, TimB said:

Going to be close but already 76 at PIT. Interesting that this thing was completely dry.

Its not going to hold. The clouds and outflow dropped it enough that I’d be shocked if it didn’t drop to 74. The dew point is also down to 65 (as of the top of the hour) so leaves room to drop some more.

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11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Its not going to hold. The clouds and outflow dropped it enough that I’d be shocked if it didn’t drop to 74. The dew point is also down to 65 (as of the top of the hour) so leaves room to drop some more.

Indeed 74 was reached at 7:45. A few spectacular days ahead and the next climo thing to watch is Sunday morning’s record low of 46, and I think we could get close.

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33 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Anyone else noticing the yellow sky? Crazy how comfortable it is out there. Very odd looking sky with sunset reflecting off these clouds.

PXL_20220617_010033708.thumb.jpg.ffd132c274072e2dde27637bb6a7a9c9.jpg

 

Truly a gorgeous night out there, and a spectacular 3-4 day period ahead. 

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Anyone else noticing the yellow sky? Crazy how comfortable it is out there. Very odd looking sky with sunset reflecting off these clouds.
PXL_20220617_010033708.thumb.jpg.ffd132c274072e2dde27637bb6a7a9c9.jpg
 

What a great picture of some mammatus. Don’t see that too often around here


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On 6/16/2022 at 8:02 PM, TimB said:

Indeed 74 was reached at 7:45. A few spectacular days ahead and the next climo thing to watch is Sunday morning’s record low of 46, and I think we could get close.

Low at PIT was 46. Record tied.

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10 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

HRRR says upper 90s possible downtown tomorrow, with mid 90s around the airport. Would normally say these readings are unlikely but given upstream readings (was 100F in Toledo today), I'd say these aren't unreasonable.

sfct.us_ma.png

It was throwing that out earlier too.  If storms hold off or form further east, we could see some pretty high temperatures.

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