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June 2022


bluewave
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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

high of 95

First time that Newark had 4 days of 95+ by June 17th without a official heatwave of 3 consecutive 90° days. So an usual battle between the heat ridge to our west and blocking to our north and east. We get these big weather swings between scattered 90°+ days and cool downs like this weekend. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 17
First Heatwave 
1 1984-06-17 6 6-7 to 6-11
2 2021-06-17 5 6-5 to 6-9
3 2008-06-17 4 6-7 to 6-10
- 1988-06-17 4 6-12 to 6-16
- 1987-06-17 4 5-29 to 6-1
- 1945-06-17 4 6-14 to 6-18
  2022-06-17 4 ?
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A piece of the air mass responsible for record-breaking heat in the Plains States and Great Lakes Region moved across the Middle Atlantic region today. Near record and record high temperatures in the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Region included:

Atlantic City: 93°
Baltimore: 96° (tied record set in 1939)
Bridgeport: 90°
Charlotte: 98°
Columbia, SC: 100°
Islip: 90° (old record: 88°, 2000)
Lynchburg: 96° (tied record set in 1944)
New York City-JFK: 94°
New York City-LGA: 92°
Newark: 95°
Norfolk: 97° (tied record set in 1891 and tied in 1945)
Philadelphia: 96°
Raleigh: 98°
Richmond: 97°
Sterling, VA: 96° (old record: 92°, 1994)
Washington, DC: 99° (old record: 97°, 2014)
Wilmington, DE: 95°
Wilmington, NC: 96°

Following today's brief burst of heat, much cooler air will return for the weekend. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek next week before warmer air returns.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, a record early-season heatwave scorched parts of western Europe. High temperatures included:

Andujar, Spain: 112°
Carcassonne, France: 105°
Cognac, France: 102°
London: 91°
Nimes, France: 105°
Paris: 95°

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +23.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.342 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.893 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.594 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.2° (0.2° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I always LOL when the cold front passes and the coast finally heats up from the warm NYC air coming through.

Max here today was quite late; 87° at 5:49pm.  An hour later its down to 83.  Turning into a nice evening.  It could be worse...Paris flirting with 100 for at least a couple of days (Paris, France, that is; it was only 95 in Paris, TX) .

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Max here today was quite late; 87° at 5:49pm.  An hour later its down to 83.  Turning into a nice evening.  It could be worse...Paris flirting with 100 for at least a couple of days (Paris, France, that is; it was only 95 in Paris, TX) .

We definitely lucked out (if you’re anti-heat) with the constant blocking which sticks the trough over the NE. We really need the Midwest ridge to be dominant and have a hot westerly downslope flow for us to really heat up. We’ll likely eventually be under the WAR that will heat us up to low-mid 90s with atrocious humidity. That’s become the norm here. Bring the Carolinas north to our area. 

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Most of the very latest guidance is downplaying heat for next week. The tri-state region is on the very outskirts of the ridge with frequent rounds of storms. Given ensemble trends and extrapolating forward the ridge seems more and more at least for the first half of this summer to be anchoring itself out west. Generally, this set up would usually favor a cooler 2014 type summer. But given the Euro seasonal forecast, maybe we here in the northeast are looking at primarily a second half summer from the second or third week of July on. 

WX/PT

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10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Max here today was quite late; 87° at 5:49pm.  An hour later its down to 83.  Turning into a nice evening.  It could be worse...Paris flirting with 100 for at least a couple of days (Paris, France, that is; it was only 95 in Paris, TX) .

100 is awesome.

We got close to 95 here, second hottest day this year. I hope we hit 100 in July!

 

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8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We definitely lucked out (if you’re anti-heat) with the constant blocking which sticks the trough over the NE. We really need the Midwest ridge to be dominant and have a hot westerly downslope flow for us to really heat up. We’ll likely eventually be under the WAR that will heat us up to low-mid 90s with atrocious humidity. That’s become the norm here. Bring the Carolinas north to our area. 

Guess what though, more often than not blocking now means lack of blocking in the winter.

I want the 100 that Chicago had last week, not the mediocre low mid 90s BS

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

A two day June temperature drop at Newark from the 90s to 50s is impressive.Top 10 greatest from the daily high to the daily low two days later is 36° to 41°. Maybe Newark can beat expectations today and creep up to the 92° to 95°range.Then all it needs to do is make a run on 55° or lower Sunday morning to approach a 40° drop.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=42&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


B3F02611-889A-415A-A66B-4B5AC1D486E7.thumb.png.c24598b7cb9289148123a1e29ee45012.png

 

 

 

That can happen at JFK too!

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  70degs.(62/78) or -3. 

Month to date is  71.1[+1.0].        Should be about  70.7[-0.3]  by the 26th.

Reached 92 here yesterday.

Today:   70-74(high was at midnight, 79), sun and then clouds late, wind nw. and gusty.

68*(52%RH) here at 7am.         66* at 11am.         62* at 9pm----PM period spent mostly at 64-67.       October like, with good cloud cover and winds.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 73°

Philadelphia: 74°

Tomorrow and Monday will see a continuation of the cool weather.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.6°; 15-Year: 80.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.3°

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