bluewave Posted June 15, 2022 Author Share Posted June 15, 2022 The EPS is coming in stronger with the blocking from the weekend into early next week. So we’ll have to wait a while longer for our first official 3 day heatwave. All warm ups since late May have lasted 1-2 days due to the blocking pushing back against the amplifying heat ridges. But we have been getting a higher than average number of 80°+ days. This is how places like Newark are running more than +3. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 The passage of a warm front could bring some showers or thundershowers tomorrow. Friday will be a very warm day with readings reaching the upper 80s in New York City and perhaps lower 90s in Newark and Philadelphia. Much cooler air will return for the weekend. Intense heat scorched the Great Lakes Region and Southeast today. Record high temperatures included: Athens, GA: 99° (tied record set in 1918) Atlanta: 99° (old record: 96°, 143 and 1952) Chicago: 96° (old record: 95°, 1952, 1954 and 1994) Flint, MI: 93° (tied record set in 1954 and tied in 1988) Lansing, MI: 95° (92°, 1894, 1954, 1967, 1988, and 1994) Macon, GA: 104° (old record: 100°, 2010 and 2011) Rockford, IL: 97° (old record: 95°, 1994) Toledo: 98° (old record: 96°, 1994) Youngstown, OH: 93° (tied record set in 1994) At Galveston, which has seen two consecutive warm monthly records, June 1-15 was, by far, the warmest first half of June on record. The mean temperature was 87.1°. The old record was 85.3°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already seen 9 days with low temperatures of 83° or above. The previous record for the entire month was 7 days. That record was set in 1994. Records go back to June 1874. In the desert Southwest, today marked the beginning of monsoon season. Phoenix could receive measurable rainfall on Saturday and perhaps Sunday as the first monsoonal moisture flows northward. The wettest monsoon season brought 9.56" of rain to Phoenix during 1984. The driest season was 1924 when just 0.35" of rain was measured. Phoenix receives an average of 2.42" of rain during the monsoon season (1991-2020). In 1961-90, the average was 2.78". Ongoing aridification is reducing precipitation to the Southwest. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +16.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.413 today. On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.340 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.251 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.3° (0.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 this weekend is going to be a gem 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Tomorrow morning could be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Tomorrow morning could be interesting Sneak attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Tomorrow morning could be interesting And right on schedule the radar is lit up! Bring on some heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Morning thoughts… At 6:10, a line of showers and thunderstorms stretched from just west of Wilmington, DE to just south of Albany. After some early showers and thundershowers, it will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely as a warm front moves slowly across the region. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 81° Tomorrow will be very warm, but much cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8° Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 10 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: this weekend is going to be a gem Saturday too cool for my liking..not a beach day. Its June not April 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/80) or slightly BN. Month to date is 71.0[+1.2]. Should be about 71.3[+0.6] by the 24th. Reached 78 here yesterday. Today: 69-73, wind s. to w., cloudy, rain-TS by Noon, 72 tomorrow AM. 68*(87%RH) here at 7am. 70* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Ensembles going stronger on the blocking and once again limiting the heat surges 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Geez what the heck happened to Saturday ? Went from looking like 75 and lovely to being in the 60's and windy and going down to 50's at nite yeesh 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: And right on schedule the radar is lit up! Bring on some heavy rain! Most of it looks to end up SW of the city. The stuff over upstate NY looks to be weakening as it approaches while the storms over NJ are maintaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 We are still dealing with the Atlantic blocking pattern that emerged after March 20th. Big reversal from the winter into early spring. The next few weeks will probably determine what kind of summer we have for heat. If the warm ups keep getting pushed back, then this summer probably won’t be as hot as last. If the blocking fades and the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge, then it will be off to the races for the heat. Where was this pattern during the winter? Dec 1 to Mar 20 below normal snowfall for many Blocking emerges after March 20th with brief warm ups followed by cool downs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles going stronger on the blocking and once again limiting the heat surges Yup, heat is gone now for next week. Euro has us in the 70’s all week 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Spectacular convection event underway out here. My Tempest has recorded over 3100 lightning strikes in the past 3 hours with many CTG strikes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Another good soaking here as I’m over .5 and raining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Just some light rain out here to wet the ground a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 0.47" with some thunder earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 98° yesterday surpassing the previous record set in 1994. So this will be a rare instance of record heat so close to our west not making it here. The same date back in 1994 Newark set a record high of 101°. Toledo Area, OHPeriod of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+ Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Rainy days and Monday's / Here's that Rainy day playing on the radio. Showers, some storms moving through N - S the next couple of hours. Much cooler and a somewhat kinda gloomy today where we are likely locked in clouds beyond the rain into mid/late afternoon before the surge (brief) of the Plains/MidWeest furnace blasts through the area Friday (6/17). Most will see near or low 90s, could be a few stray md 90s in the hot spots. The weekend while cooler for sure looks great (California Style) sunny both days NYC/NJ metro highs 70s Saturday near 80 Sunday with lows 50s / 60s. A bit warmer by Mon (6/20) but still looks splendid. The models build the ride east but again (cooler mid range) as onshore influences and weakness into the northeast create rain / onshore tendencies through 6/24. We'll see if things trend warmer again and we can see some heat in the Wed - Fri period. Beyond Fri (6/24)- The heat is building into the plains and Mid west and longer range now showing the blast into the area Sat 6/25 - flatter flow / higher heights end June into July. We have seen many (most) Junes with limited (2-5) 90 degree days, some had none and then a heat surged the last 3-4 days and into July so this isnt anything unnormal from the past 10/12 years of so. EWR June 90 degree daya: 2021 : 13 2020: 5 2019: 4 2018: 5 2017: 5 2016: 3 2015: 4 2014: 2 2013: 4 2012: 6 2011: 4 2010: 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Heavy rain weakened as it approached Long Island, .14 of an inch of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles going stronger on the blocking and once again limiting the heat surges Great news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 .15" here this morning. Smithtown, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Some passing showers this morning. Looks like you guys got something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Most of it looks to end up SW of the city. The stuff over upstate NY looks to be weakening as it approaches while the storms over NJ are maintaining. Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Another good soaking here as I’m over .5 and raining Got a little over a half inch here as well. Nice watering for the vegetable garden. The loud thunder woke me up at 7am. Lots of very close lightning strikes here. There wasn't much wind so it was far from the strongest storm we've had here, but it had the most close lightning strikes of any storm I've had here so far this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s More likely than not we end up with the usual South Shore drought season, delayed not denied. The upper level support also looked to be a bit too far SW for us this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 .40" this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1.93" this morning, monsoon between 8:30-9:00 dropped over an inch Big dump in Bucks County just west of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Most lightning detection I've seen on the sensor I've had for the past year & half. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now