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June 2022


bluewave
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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Getting close to a inch now. @winterwarlock how much did you get? 

It has been one downpour after another tonight. Most of them brief, but it has added up to 1.25 here so far. A decent amount of lightning too, but not much wind. Nothing like the strong storm we had last night with the 40 to 50mph wind gusts, but a good soaking tonight.

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The effective range of most ensemble guidance is only about 7 to sometimes 15 days. We have been experiencing some very big swings in our weather recently. So trying to figure out the patterns beyond 2 weeks is usually pretty low skill.
 

 

 

 

why has the skill continued to be so low at this range?  It's disappointing how little advancement we've seen over the past 20 years in medium to long range forecasting

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with afternoon or evening thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or severe. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 85°

Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will develop tomorrow and continue into early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.7°; 15-Year: 76.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 77.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.1°; 15-Year: 79.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/80) or +1.

Reached 68 here yesterday.

Today: 72-78, wind w. to n. to e., rain 2pm-8pm, 64 tomorrow AM.

64*(99%RH) here at 7am.{was 61 at midnight}        68* at 9am.       70* at 11am.        72* at Noon.       75* at 3pm.       77* at 4pm.

 

 

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Wettest start to meteorological summer at JFK since 2003. The 1.36 nearly tied the daily record. So heavy rains just one day after the record heat. 

 

Data for June 1 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
2003-06-01 66 54 1.37 0.0 0
2022-06-01 67 59 1.36 M M
1975-06-01 75 66 1.35 0.0 0
2018-06-01 75 63 1.18 0.0 0
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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Getting close to a inch now. @winterwarlock how much did you get? 

.75 about total from 2 showers. Hardly earthshattering. It had been almost 5  days since previous rain so I am still wondering about the "another night of downpours" comment 

 

Also im looking at the forecasts for next 7-10 days and it looks seasonal with plenty of nice days with the usual rain chances every so often. A gorgeous stretch of 3 days beginning Friday

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why has the skill continued to be so low at this range?  It's disappointing how little advancement we've seen over the past 20 years in medium to long range forecasting

 

Models were lucky to get the forecast right a day or two in advance during the 70s and 80s. Then the Euro did really well with the March 1993 storm of the century and January 1996 blizzard. 

Sometimes the Euro seasonal can do well with a 3 month forecast like it did last summer. But winter seasonal forecasts have much less skill. Probably too difficult to get the state of the polar vortex and MJO correct very far in advance. 

AI may need to be added to the models to have a chance at pushing beyond the 2 week limit. 

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