KEITH L.I Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. May pattern Much different pattern into mid-June CFS now has a cool July too.Has Euro backed off yet from their hot Summer forecast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: CFS now has a cool July too.Has Euro backed off yet from their hot Summer forecast? CFS is always cool, every month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 2 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: CFS now has a cool July too.Has Euro backed off yet from their hot Summer forecast? The effective range of most ensemble guidance is only about 7 to sometimes 15 days. We have been experiencing some very big swings in our weather recently. So trying to figure out the patterns beyond 2 weeks is usually pretty low skill. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 43 minutes ago, psv88 said: CFS is always cool, every month Yeah we're not getting a cool July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah we're not getting a cool July No we arent. Too much potent heat early on this year. This is going to be a hot, humid summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 weird couple days of weather, this isn’t exactly a typical summer setup for SVR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 This was our greatest high temperature drop from May 31 to June 1. All the other years with such a warm end to May were also warm to start June. The high of 71° at Newark today was 27° cooler than the record high of 98° yesterday. So a continuation of the our big weather swings theme. Data for May 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature June 1st Difference 2022-05-31 98 71 -27 1987-05-31 96 94 -2 1986-05-31 95 94 -1 1939-05-31 95 83 -12 2013-05-31 94 93 -1 2007-05-31 94 92 -2 1988-05-31 94 93 -1 1944-05-31 94 87 -7 1991-05-31 92 87 -5 1956-05-31 92 87 -5 1937-05-31 92 94 +2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 Stuff having a hard time pushing south of 80 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 In the wake of the passage of a strong backdoor cold front, temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region were around 20°-30° cooler than yesterday's highs. The heat continued from Philadelphia and southward. Following overnight showers and thundershowers, tomorrow will be warmer again with readings returning to the upper 70s and at least lower 80s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. However, a cold front will trigger thunderstorms, some of which can be strong. Afterward, a period of more seasonable temperatures will follow. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -4.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.641 today. That breaks the previous record low of -1.956 from 1975. On May 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.035 (RMM). The May 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.909 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, FPizz said: Stuff having a hard time pushing south of 80 so far Yeah I don't expect much. Pretty stable out there too Tomorrow might be better but I have a feeling it'll miss north tonight and then miss south tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 Heavy rain some lightning and thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 POURING rain here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Downpour here with some thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Boomers to the north. Winds picking up. Edit: heavy rain now, frequent lightening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 sprinkles so far but the walls are closing in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 13 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like 70’s and wet weather for the next 2 weeks it will change, it always does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Thunderstorm here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Fell apart around me. 0.01” from this batch. 0.19” in the early AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Some training over parts of NNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 95 yesterday, currently rain and 59 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Lots of thunder. No rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Heavy rain and frequent cg strikes here in New Providence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Some training over parts of NNJ Under it currently. Pouring…frequent lighting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Nice soaking so far, probably about 0.5” or so here. Looks like Round 2 overnight coming through the Catskills now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Getting some good thunder and lightning here, only .13 inch of rain so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 NWS 60% POP is going to get blown away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Pouring now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: it will change, it always does Another night of downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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