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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Parents: Come on kids we're going to VT.

Kids: Yay!

Parents: WTF is this shit? 60s and shwrs?

Kids: I wanna go home, the weather stinks!

Parents: Shut up we paid a lot of money for this!

Kids: But what are we going to do? I'm going on my kindle!

Dad: Starts drinking

Mom: You better not be drinking the whole weekend! 

Dad: Eff this shit if it's 65 and shwrs.


 

 

I've actually personally apologized for the weather a number of times in the past few weeks. They really don't seem to mind - most seem to enjoy the cool weather! I guess if you choose the mountains in the summer you're not really hoping for 90s and dews

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll tell you though.. there are some extraordinary heat signals setting up from California through Pheonix to the Kansas/Nebraska and Texas regions..   The positive mode of the PNA in the summer can be really bad for them...

Sonoran heat release for us?

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28 minutes ago, alex said:

I've actually personally apologized for the weather a number of times in the past few weeks. They really don't seem to mind - most seem to enjoy the cool weather! I guess if you choose the mountains in the summer you're not really hoping for 90s and dews

Hopefully you gave everyone a refund on Father’s Day.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully you gave everyone a refund on Father’s Day.

Gotta love New England vacations with the weather dice roll.  I remember our family went to the Cape on year when I was like 10 and it rained the whole time.  I’m sure it was humid as that’s how it rains there, but the memory was playing board games for like 5 days of probably onshore flow.  With Stein now though not even sure that’s possible anymore.

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58 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Sonoran heat release for us?

not as such ...but, at this range ... it's meaningless to speculate whether that would or won't happen.   That kind of look usually precede -  +PNAP hold big heat bag and capped mixing really gets a huge plume created, then... E Pac relay into western N/A dislodges ( PNAP drops)... and the heat comes with it. 

Presently the synoptic resonance 'resolves' into a +PNAP D8-14 with huge anomaly out there. These ens means keep trying to get there even by D7's ...so there something more to it than just noise out in time. 

I think it's worth keeping an eye on.   Not to bog down the discussion, but when there are big heat numbers piling over days, that can effect the pattern.  The perennial pattern (absence of anomalies in either direction) features a basal flat ridge in the west with a nadir exiting the EC.  It's just the long term climate mean.  But heat tends to cause anticyclonic motion around it.   If there are environmental feed-backs causing heat to build (pattern ..sun ..dry earth..), that than super impose a constructive interference over the perennial signal, and that causes it to exaggerate the ridge expression.   ... I'm speculating some model error here... 

But like this 12z GFS ... The last 5 cycles aft of this solution have all trended higher with the heights in the E as the extended time ranges, relay into the mid range.  There are two aspects going on.   The models are two low with heights over the eastern continent ...~ D7 -11's .. So they correct up as that time range becomes more like  4 to 9...particularly the nearer side.  However, not coming completely far enough to get us into the truly high heat.  One of these times the correction may be sufficient to survive a nasty kinetic slab of air this far.  

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Gosh, rain on summer vacation with young kids. As a parent was lucky to avoid it. As a kid - probably 55 years ago or so - two weeks on panther pond in the sebago lake area of maine. My parents and my cousins - probably 6 or 7 seven kids between the two families. All the kids probably all under the age of 7 - non-stop rain. One of my first memories, it was that bad. I distinctly remember the sun coming out on the maine turnpike as we fled the state. My Mom talks still talks about how she almost lost her mind. Folklore in my family.

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6 minutes ago, Angus said:

Gosh, rain on summer vacation with young kids. As a parent was lucky to avoid it. As a kid - probably 55 years ago or so - two weeks on panther pond in the sebago lake area of maine. My parents and my cousins - probably 6 or 7 seven kids between the two families. All the kids probably all under the age of 7 - non-stop rain. One of my first memories, it was that bad. I distinctly remember the sun coming out on the maine turnpike as we fled the state. My Mom talks still talks about how she almost lost her mind. Folklore in my family.

If it rained for a week in Maine in summer .  Guaranteed it was days of 50’s . Always  try and head south in summer 

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta love New England vacations with the weather dice roll.  I remember our family went to the Cape on year when I was like 10 and it rained the whole time.  I’m sure it was humid as that’s how it rains there, but the memory was playing board games for like 5 days of probably onshore flow.  With Stein now though not even sure that’s possible anymore.

I lose my shit when that happens.

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43 minutes ago, Angus said:

Gosh, rain on summer vacation with young kids. As a parent was lucky to avoid it. As a kid - probably 55 years ago or so - two weeks on panther pond in the sebago lake area of maine. My parents and my cousins - probably 6 or 7 seven kids between the two families. All the kids probably all under the age of 7 - non-stop rain. One of my first memories, it was that bad. I distinctly remember the sun coming out on the maine turnpike as we fled the state. My Mom talks still talks about how she almost lost her mind. Folklore in my family.

I’m leaving tomorrow to join  my gf and her family (dad/ brother / sister in law etc)  On Nantucket . 3 kids Will be there that are 9 years old . If the weather was rain I would have faked a positive Covid test 

There is nothing like a wet and cool summer vaca stuck w children In house, I assume that’s why ppl drink  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As a straight guy.. why do you hate /not want children. ? Other than banging Dilfs guilt free .. what straight guy that is able.. doesn’t want a family ? I don’t get it 

I won't lie, I'm not sure what being a straight guy has to do with preferences regarding having a family.  Do non-straight guys not want a family?  This read weird.  What does being able to, or not being able to, have to do with wanting a family?

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here’s the cam from the Canterbury RWIS at the rest area. It’s worse further south between 17-18, but you get the idea.

image.jpeg

Yep. Almost looked worse on southbound side. And look in the distance. Coming to your bamboo.

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Monday ended up being a lot nicer than expected. Dark and gloomy in the morning with rain gave way to lots of sun in the afternoon. It seems SNE was stuck in the clouds and rain the whole day. Looking at the forecast, 80s are finally more attainable for the first time of the season. May even make a run for 90 again on Friday. After that, no real sign of any heat, as has been the case since May, and the GFS is continuing its usual parade of troughs drilling into NE.

Headed back to AZ today. Forecast changes accordingly from this:

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Tonight: Scattered showers between 9pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

To this:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 105.
Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 87.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 107.
Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 85.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 104.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 83.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 104.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 83.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 105.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 84.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 105.

Most of the lows there will actually be close to the daytime highs in ME. Also of note is the differing criteria for "hot." For PSR, that means at least 110. GYX by comparison is a mere 90.

 

IMG_3977s.jpg

IMG_3868s.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m slightly surprised that Wiz hasn’t started a thread for the severe threat late Saturday?

It's one of those fake threats. Not sure there is much severe potential with it outside of maybe a few localized severe storms. Lapse rates [mid-level] are a joke which is going to hold back instability potential and the best dynamics and shortwave forcing is along and north of the international border. Everything will essentially be water-logged downdrafts with torrential rain and maybe some 30-40 mph gusts. Also looks like timing may be crap b/c pre-frontal moves through too early. 

The summer of crap continues to carry the torch. 

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