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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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That nice looking band of precip yesterday brought only 0.06".  June will finish with 3.33", while the avg thru last year is 5.08".  May/June totaled 4.87" compared to an average of 8.92".  After the 1.14" on 6/12, this month has had only 0.45".  Those 2 months have been dry over the past 7 years.  In the 17 previous years they averaged 9.93" compared to 6.10" over the most recent 7.  The other 10 months 2016-on have been 99% of the 1998-2015 average, essentially normal.

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14 hours ago, mreaves said:

As a fan, I'm pretty good with their ownership.  1st EPL title in 30 years, Champion's League title and 2 other UCL finals, FA Cup and League Cup this year.  Could be worse.

Great season for Liverpool again.  May 22 was my wife's 65th and we planned a trip to England to celebrate.  Part of that was tickets for the City match at the Etihad.  What an absolutely unbelievable match and celebration.  Never experienced anything like it and don't think I ever will again.  Those three goals in five and a half minutes are burned in my memory!!!

Etihad1.jpg

Etihad2.jpg

Etihad3.jpg

Etihad4.jpg

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, I don’t have the data in front of me, but it does seem like the last 10 years have been quieter than normal in SNE. I know we have had some isolated big events, but just seems quiet overall. I don’t count an EF-0 from a renegade downpour.

It seems that we're getting an increased number of cool season setups and it also seems like we're getting lower-end setups to actually produce. This gets into the EF-0 stuff but given the warmer waters we're seeing increased llvl CAPE values with higher shears in place. I think dual-pol has also helped sizably in identifying quick spinups but as "garbage" as those seem they are still important to identify. 

But I really do miss the 90's. I know sometimes our perception is far different than reality but it seemed we used to get several solid squall lines every summer. I always used to get pissed though b/c these things would get to Hartford, completely fall apart, and then sometimes rebuild east. But those years not only had solid squall lines...but we would also get some decent nocturnal events too (especially August). August 9, 2000 was wild. 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean he knows where he lives right?

Hopefully he does but it’s not a healthy way to live. Especially considering his idea of a good meal is McDeez cheeseburgers and washes it down with beer. Only a matter of time before he collapses live on amwx as he chases a row of dark clouds.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hopefully he does but it’s not a healthy way to live. Especially considering his idea of a good meal is McDeez cheeseburgers and washes it down with beer. Only a matter of time before he collapses live on amwx as he chases a row of dark clouds.

I don't do the cheeseburgers anymore. They blow. The fish Filet is the best. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, I don’t have the data in front of me, but it does seem like the last 10 years have been quieter than normal in SNE. I know we have had some isolated big events, but just seems quiet overall. I don’t count an EF-0 from a renegade downpour.

Is there a site with archived lightning data? Wonder if there would be a way to count the number of strikes. Paul said it a couple posts up, but we just don't get thunderstorms anymore. Perhaps its Tip's Hadley cell messing things up again?

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Parents: Come on kids we're going to VT.

Kids: Yay!

Parents: WTF is this shit? 60s and shwrs?

Kids: I wanna go home, the weather stinks!

Parents: Shut up we paid a lot of money for this!

Kids: But what are we going to do? I'm going on my kindle!

Dad: Starts drinking

Mom: You better not be drinking the whole weekend! 

Dad: Eff this shit if it's 65 and shwrs.


 

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Parents: Come on kids we're going to VT.

Kids: Yay!

Parents: WTF is this shit? 60s and shwrs?

Kids: I wanna go home, the weather stinks!

Parents: Shut up we paid a lot of money for this!

Kids: But what are we going to do? I'm going on my kindle!

Dad: Starts drinking

Mom: You better not be drinking the whole weekend! 

Dad: Eff this shit if it's 65 and shwrs.

 

The Rec Path outside looks like I-89 but with bikes. They don’t seem to mind.  No one comes to VT to swim.

Breweries on every corner to keep Dad buzzed while little Johnny rides his bike around the pump track.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Rec Path outside looks like I-89 but with bikes. They don’t seem to mind.  No one comes to VT to swim.

Breweries on every corner to keep Dad buzzed while little Johnny rides his bike around the pump track.

Folks huddled up in jackets and coats sucking down hot cocoa. Great for Oct, not summer. No thanks. If You don’t get dews up there in summer this is your other option . 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean he knows where he lives right?

Poor Wiz. I know how he feels. We like what we like even if it doesn’t show up in our backyard lol.

We don’t even do snow all that well around here these days. All we have left is “drought” and dew talk. 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks huddled up in jackets and coats sucking down hot cocoa. Great for Oct, not summer. No thanks. If You don’t get dews up there in summer this is your other option . 

It’s maybe four (4) whole degrees warmer for you.  68F vs 72F.  You make it sound so different :lol:.

Dew of 48F at the High School STEM… 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nah rain showers gone, instant sun, shorts and t-shirts.

AC9B17A4-DECC-45DE-AD2A-C92CC2A4CC8F.jpeg.7d454a004723d1a43da8f8a30f9ef014.jpeg

You know ...this is gonna seem a bit 'out there' as a perspective on matters.  But it's really like models are catching the atmosphere doing a weird thing: keeping the lower troposphere cold amidst a warm non-hydrostat. 

The 500 mb circulation medium, really from Thursday out to the end, seldom ever sees the 582 isohypses collapse S of BUF-BOS ...yet, there are several days in the GFS oper that would have it struggle to make 71 over the course of the next 12 days.   There are some mid 80s in there, granted, but ...if we're doing that down here, it's not exaclty 'warmer' up there when in the absence of 'over-the-top' ..  We've sported temps in the mid to high 90s at 582 heights... but this has been going on where the heights are not low, only the hydrostatic heights and mainly below the 800 mb level have been disproportionately cool. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Parents: Come on kids we're going to VT.

Kids: Yay!

Parents: WTF is this shit? 60s and shwrs?

Kids: I wanna go home, the weather stinks!

Parents: Shut up we paid a lot of money for this!

Kids: But what are we going to do? I'm going on my kindle!

Dad: Starts drinking

Mom: You better not be drinking the whole weekend! 

Dad: Eff this shit if it's 65 and shwrs.


 

 

I've actually personally apologized for the weather a number of times in the past few weeks. They really don't seem to mind - most seem to enjoy the cool weather! I guess if you choose the mountains in the summer you're not really hoping for 90s and dews

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll tell you though.. there are some extraordinary heat signals setting up from California through Pheonix to the Kansas/Nebraska and Texas regions..   The positive mode of the PNA in the summer can be really bad for them...

Sonoran heat release for us?

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28 minutes ago, alex said:

I've actually personally apologized for the weather a number of times in the past few weeks. They really don't seem to mind - most seem to enjoy the cool weather! I guess if you choose the mountains in the summer you're not really hoping for 90s and dews

Hopefully you gave everyone a refund on Father’s Day.

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