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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mid level and low level clouds are going in opposite directions this morning. Vis loop is pretty cool to watch.

A random model sounding from around here shows it well. Switch flipped around 750mb.

2022062206_NAMNST_000_43.42,-71.41_severe_ml.png

maybe we can generate weak mid-level vortices and watch birds get caught and whirlwind across the sky

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Look at this monsoon anomaly that's transiently sending clusters up the central Valley of California ..  nice. Not sure y'all been following the world, but California pretty much won't be inhabitable in 30 years without some seriously stream-lined desalinization tech and implemented distribution infrastructure.   No problem - it'd take the GDP of the United States for 50 years to pay for the f'er but it could be done.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cen_California-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

If a TC were to ever get caught in that trajectory ... something like that is really what California needs - or perhaps not.   Not sure how the geography would handle a 20 inch, "Mitchian" rain-out scenario when dry compaction has choked off all the macro-pores in the ground.  

 

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Hey 'Wiz ...

this is what I was mentioning to you yesterday, about subtle reasons to be engaged- heh ...I mean it's all we got after acceptance of what we are around this region of the planet.  

But this is a cut out of the 06z Euro, and this smattering region of QPF is convectively sequenced ...  notable from 12z as non -existent, then blossoms nearing 18z.  

image.png.ae979c1e77edec29483bf65f278b8ae7.png

Not a big deal and wouldn't be mentioned but .. those are crispy towers and zap threats to golfers nonetheless...  I like those kind of sky scape artistries of summer air masses.  Nice towers for serious bun times ... the smell of warmth has its aroma, and then a txt arrives from a long lost dream love ... Oh wait -

Of course...it may also be overdone .. heh.   As we know, the Euro tends to mix and extend BL too much - not sure if that's an augmenter to convection but since both are UVM related ..  

Re heat this weekend:  I'm noticing the 2-m products suggest sucking the DP out of the air, as it the air mass spills E of the western OV/E Great Lakes... Some of that is d-slope, but I wonder about these erstwhile deficits lending to that.  It's kind of like a inverse dry-line somewhere along the spine the Apps.   But  63 to 65 type air mass seems to end up in the high 50s across SNE ..both Sat/Sun afternoon, when both global models have 90 to 95 west and north of the marine zones.   Maybe a dry heat pulse. 

I'm starting to wonder if this 2023 warm season is going to go down this way ... Like, for ever 10 days of translucent blue and/or temp challenged scung overcast like today, we finally get 2 days of summer where we pay yet more in curse-taxes for existing here with stealing DPs or some other shit to take something back... unreal

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey 'Wiz ...

this is what I was mentioning to you yesterday, about subtle reasons to be engaged- heh ...I mean it's all we got after acceptance of what we are around this region of the planet.  

But this is a cut out of the 06z Euro, and this smattering region of QPF is convectively sequenced ...  notable from 12z as non -existent, then blossoms nearing 18z.  

image.png.ae979c1e77edec29483bf65f278b8ae7.png

Not a big deal and wouldn't be mentioned but .. those are crispy towers and zap threats to golfers nonetheless...  I like those kind of sky scape artistries of summer air masses.  Nice towers for serious bun times

Of course...it may also be overdone .. heh.   As we know, the Euro tends to mix and extend BL too much - not sure if that's an augmenter to convection but since both are UVM related ..  

Re heat this weekend:  I'm noticing the 2-m products suggest sucking the DP out of the air, as it the air mass spills E of the western OV/E Great Lakes... Some of that is d-slope, but I wonder about these erstwhile deficits lending to that.  It's kind of like a inverse dry-line somewhere along the spine the Apps.   But  63 to 65 type air mass seems to end up in the high 50s across SNE ..both Sat/Sun afternoon, when both global models have 90 to 95 west and north of the marine zones.   Maybe a dry heat pulse. 

I'm starting to wonder if this 2023 warm season is going to go down this way ... Like, for ever 10 days of translucent blue and/or temp challenged scung overcast like today, we finally get 2 days of summer.

Certainly seems plausible we could see some isolated activity given the presence of some weak instability and modestly cold mid-level temperatures, but I agree...sometimes these can yield some very nice crispy towers which are fun to look at. In fact, I really dig those. Maybe a better likelihood along terrain-induced influences for any development? 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly seems plausible we could see some isolated activity given the presence of some weak instability and modestly cold mid-level temperatures, but I agree...sometimes these can yield some very nice crispy towers which are fun to look at. In fact, I really dig those. Maybe a better likelihood along terrain-induced influences for any development? 

Yeah... I mean, the topographic forcing is a sufficient "trigger" - if we want to call it that - for that Euro scenario.   I was just looking at the NAM and GFS ... no interest.  It's all Euro, but it has been consistently painting that  18z pop off.     I dunno - nice test for the Euro happy mixing.  

The old ETA versions ... of which the NAM roots its heredity, used to be an outstanding tool for 'convective initiation' - whether by accident in the model's design.  Talkin' way back there though. Like 1995 when I was up at UML ... not sure if the versions and time-dependent human mangling of the tool may or may not have cleverly made it bad at convective initiation, also by accident LOL  

I'm not frankly sure what the NAM's usefulness is outside of convection physics and dopamine excitement at QPF numbers on the 72 hour grid ahead of coastal storms that are also biased too far NW.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Look at this monsoon anomaly that's transiently sending clusters up the central Valley of California ..  nice. Not sure y'all been following the world, but California pretty much won't be inhabitable in 30 years without some seriously stream-lined desalinization tech and implemented distribution infrastructure.   No problem - it'd take the GDP of the United States for 50 years to pay for the f'er but it could be done.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cen_California-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

If a TC were to ever get caught in that trajectory ... something like that is really what California needs - or perhaps not.   Not sure how the geography would handle a 20 inch, "Mitchian" rain-out scenario when dry compaction has choked off all the macro-pores in the ground.  

 

Or, ya know, we could stop farming almonds and other water-intensive crops there.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re heat this weekend:  I'm noticing the 2-m products suggest sucking the DP out of the air, as it the air mass spills E of the western OV/E Great Lakes... Some of that is d-slope, but I wonder about these erstwhile deficits lending to that.  It's kind of like a inverse dry-line somewhere along the spine the Apps.   But  63 to 65 type air mass seems to end up in the high 50s across SNE ..both Sat/Sun afternoon, when both global models have 90 to 95 west and north of the marine zones.   Maybe a dry heat pulse. 

I'm starting to wonder if this 2023 warm season is going to go down this way ... Like, for ever 10 days of translucent blue and/or temp challenged scung overcast like today, we finally get 2 days of summer where we pay yet more in curse-taxes for existing here with stealing DPs or some other shit to take something back... unreal

I just don't think this will be a summer for any kind of heat in NE. I've seen this type of regime settle in for many of the summers of the 2010s and it's all too familiar. There's a burst of heat in May and then a pattern change where the door slams shut for the remainder of the warm season. More often than not, May ends up having the highest daily temperatures of the season. We've even just had the requisite horror show we went through over the weekend which is a staple of these types of summer patterns. Sunday we were in the 40s and lower 50s all day with thick overcast and afternoon rain. Even back in January and February I don't recall any day that chilly and miserable in Phoenix.

Another thing of note is how these 23-25c 850 temps moving well into Ontario and Quebec at the moment are absolutely obliterated once they try moving east of the Tug hill longitude. There's even some kind of cyclonic circulation backing into NE from the atlantic while that's happening.

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