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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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13 minutes ago, Saguaro said:

Yea I'm not seeing it lately. Last week it had quite a few runs showing a solid pattern change to summer and reloading warmth, along with some impressively warm 850 temps over NE. Now it's gone back to the hallmark signature to summers of the 2010s: A struggle to get 850 temps higher than 10c, very transitory departures greater than that, and a seemingly fixed maritime trough that buzzsaws any heat domes attempting to make inroads past the great lakes. Maybe it will flip again, but during my years in NE I saw more than one summer where June unfolded this way and we ended up with May having the highest temperatures of the season.

 

Interesting that there's no conventional explanation for this behavior, it happens a lot in NE as you've mentioned in past writeups. It really seems like there's an infinite capacity for new, unforeseen wrinkles to show up like this.

I think last year around this time in June there was a similar SW heat event. I'm back in Maine now for a few weeks so I'll miss this one, but forecast shows up to 114. I think last year's was forecasted a bit higher in the Phoenix area but ended up verifying lower.

Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 84.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 114.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 84.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112.

Saturday looks to be the peak of it.

Well ... yeah.  That heat last June materialized and then bled N into a Pacific NW and lower B.C./Canada ridge...  It released to that region.  Not sure if there were any more discrete attribution studies that went on to elucidate the possible feed-backs that took it from there, but the synergistic heat result definitely took place.   That was truly a historic event - in so far as it had never been observed.   

It has to do with atmospheric harmonics, but at different time scales?    No pun intended, but as a metaphor, take the solar cycle.  There's a 300 year curve, along which there is a 22-year cycle and a separate 11-year that can be gleaned out of the 'serrated' noise.  These can time on top of another another every so many Millennia or whatever the time it takes for them to align....etc.  Well, if PNA tends to positive, and cooks the SW... then, there is a sea-saw event and the PNA --> -PNAP to evolve, that heat gets ejected... So the Pacific has come into sync with N/A timing...

Kind of crude comparison - but just using that to help conceptualize how factors can time together.   We've seen -PNAP with big ridges evolve over eastern N/A mid latitudes, not produce very tall thermometer results...They didn't get that crucial asphalt softening kinetic injection as they evolved.  It's just the difference between being headline heat, or that 'special' kind.    Lol   But Weatherwiz was just describing/hinting at this, big ridges are part of it ..but they don't always have the meat stuffed in them. 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't see how you can assess that ( bold ) when the AO numerical based curve is outright showing the mode reversal. 

That's not 'more of the same'  - it is in fact, more of the opposite. 

But, we'll see how it plays out.

Valid point. Graph show it rising and neutralizing but op and ens show something else. Looping the 12z and 6z gfs, maybe the calculation would be a nuetral AO due to lower heights at the n pole but heigher heights in hudson bay sure does look to displace the vortex over our heads lol:

image.thumb.png.88d3ebfdf52973c52f543f6c333b359a.png

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I read it as through now not moving forward...but to your point, yes moving forward that signal does dampen out quite a bit. And also to your point about the decreasing seasonal lag is we don't always need a massive ridge at H5 to get big heat into here. If we get a very strong sfc high across the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast that can certainly pump in big heat (and humidity) all while maintaining a more northwesterly flow aloft(indicative of a subtle trough or downwind of a ridge crest)...and this is how we get our higher end severe events (ala summer 1995). 

Yea. There’s been no signs of a WAR so far which in the past several warm seasons, has been a dominate feature if it sets up early. 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. There’s been no signs of a WAR so far which in the past several warm seasons, has been a dominate feature if it sets up early. 

Very impressive area of -SSTA's in the northern Atlantic there. Definitely knocking the AMO down a bit. Likely a product of the persistent vortex in that area and countless systems tracking along it but that is certainly playing an influence on our weather too IMO...especially with the enhancement of any BD potential

Map of SST anomalies

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WAR is not a prerequisite or limitation if one is not present. 

It certainly helps and heat obviously gets delivered via that type of circulation mode.  But big heat or even sustaining positive anomalies in general can come from a more neutral Bermuda to WV, non-hydostratic height medium. 

So long as there is positive anomalies over Chicago and SE Canada, that can be a means to deliver warmth here just as effectively. 

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AO obs and forecast from the CPC below...Yeah, it's hardly stable

As for the WAR, it's has been setting up (look at any u/a charts).  it hasn't been able to flex/exert westward, like it did for our first bout of heat last month.  So we're stuck between central CONUS ridging and s/w lobes that pinch off over the maritimes on the west side of the ATL ridge.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

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35 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Meh, 0.14". Probably end up with more from yesterday event

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

First drops at 10:20, ground almost wet at 11:45.  Morning AFD talked about an inch or more - would be nice but I doubt we get that much.  Duplicating yesterday's 0.53" would help.

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40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Valid point. Graph show it rising and neutralizing but op and ens show something else. Looping the 12z and 6z gfs, maybe the calculation would be a nuetral AO due to lower heights at the n pole but heigher heights in hudson bay sure does look to displace the vortex over our heads lol:

image.thumb.png.88d3ebfdf52973c52f543f6c333b359a.png

 

That's typical of the operational GFS, though. It cumulatively aggregates lower/cold into vortexes. Something I've noticed since they started churning out new model versions like an ensemble line since...circa 2015.  Such that out in time, it then uses it's own creation to have ended up manufacturing incredible gradients -

That's a climate joke image there for late June for one hint, but the ens mean for that ~ time over the last three cycles is quite normalized by comparison.

My thing is, ...I am not sure how much of that trough axis along 70W is real versus torqued up by the heat dome, thus an artifact of these modeling systems.  If it's real ..sure, we can dodge significant heat from getting this far NE.  But I don't like model artifacts.  It is like in the winter... ? Sometimes we get a negative height 'node' between to more physically realized ridges, but when 7 to 10 days out ...The models "think" that's a real long-wave trough/ and embed deep events in them for manufacturing feed-backs. But then it just ends up being less or more like a standing negative region between two ridge nodes.   

Hurricane's interesting though heh.   This model is also unfortunately [apparently] a bit tropical sensitive. We've been seeing those Yuk channel black holes in the extendeds since early May.   Yet, it's not "entirely" false?  Because we did just recently observe that paltry thing get belched out of the western Caribbean last week, the feeble result of the GFS's category 4 vision from some 11 days earlier.

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Full disclosure ... I had less formulated visions about today ending up this way, when looking over guidance material yesterday.  Heh...

I thought we'd murk out until mid afternoon and struggle N of a warm front to clear before a crippled frontal mess got east...then we have sloped sun late in the day.

But this?

Ho man ... it's 81/67 with that deep blue you get with clear air high theta-e.  Only it's not coming from a Bahama conveyor..it's interesting continental origined.  Either way, ...some towers scatter about.. adding sky-scape.   Amazing summer appeal, at least for the time being.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Awful day up here.  This is what no one wants.

50s and steady synoptic rain.  Hate being stuck inside.

53F outside the office and 42F at the picnic tables.

wow - no shit... 

I was just waxing the splendor down here.    It's completely and utterly diametric to that appeal you described.  Wasn't honestly attempting to rub it.  This weird little low  cutting between us is really d(shits) across the area, huh -

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow - not shit... 

I was just waxing the splendor down here.    It's completely and utterly diametric to that appeal you described.  Wasn't honestly attempting to rub it.  This weird little low  cutting between us is really d(shits) across the area, huh -

It's like a cold conveyor belt traversing across up here.  The Adirondacks were getting a nice deform band earlier.... been like a winter storm evolution.

This was a bit earlier... it's now moving through here.  It's been like classic synoptic storm with big surge of WAA precip lifting northward through the area and then getting CCB precip on the backside.  If it were winter it'd be eastern Adirondack jackpot pivot point :lol:.

WUNIDS_map.gif.03a3f162e75f5db3303753885a235546.gif

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