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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Outside of some fluke in the gulf, I don't see how we get a landfalling US hurricane this year. 

I like the boldness.
A large blob of gusty heavy rain will form in the GoM and someone will name it. Then they'll declare it a Cat-1 based on recon. Highest actually measured gust will be 50 mph, and it will be called "the most devastating hurricane to make landfall this year". (sort of true) And there your prediction is ruined by one storm.
(Sorry my post doesn't add much to the discussion, but it's just so slow now.)

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1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I like the boldness.
A large blob of gusty heavy rain will form in the GoM and someone will name it. Then they'll declare it a Cat-1 based on recon. Highest actually measured gust will be 50 mph, and it will be called "the most devastating hurricane to make landfall this year". (sort of true) And there your prediction is ruined by one storm.
(Sorry my post doesn't add much to the discussion, but it's just so slow now.)

Notice how I said "some fluke in the gulf" ;) 

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On 8/21/2022 at 7:12 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 

1. Current Atlantic Lemon
This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic.  

2. Follow up Atlantic Wave
A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now.  

3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave
There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend.  

4. Offshore East Coast Low
This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying. 

 

On 8/23/2022 at 8:43 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Adding to this. 

-The lemon looks meh, but that was expected at this point.

-Follow up wave is a question mark. Guidance has backed off a bit for now at least. Let’s see what happens when it comes off Africa.

-Still a light ensemble signal for a weak low, now in the BOC.

-Meh for #4 but the signal is still there. More on operational guidance though so not expecting much.

-I’ll add a new area

5. Disturbance near Antilles

The ICON, which I don’t look at for tropical, was apparently trying to pick up on a disturbance breaking out of the monsoon trough near the coast of South America, and now the GFS (and GEFS/EPS) are flirting with something breaking away and into the Caribbean. Unlike the rest of the tropical Atlantic, this environment is warmer, more moist, and has less shear (for now at least). Problem is this is the monsoon trough, which can be hard to break out of, and it’s so low spin/vorticity May be tough. Might be worth a casual eye, especially if the ensembles start to pick up on it more.

At this point though, these are little more than straw grasping. We don’t have great signals for any. Yet. An August shutout is still unlikely imo but is a legitimate possibility.

#1 was killed by dry air.

#2 is 91L.

#3 was killed by shear and dry air.

#4 disappeared for a while but is now back on the models now that there’s a tangible boundary. It’s (more or less) the central Atlantic lemon.

#5 was killed by shear and dry air. 
 

Just holding my forecasts accountable. :axe: 

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Let's do a quick look around the tropics this morning, as we are poised to end August with no named storms for the first time in over 20 years. 

1. North Central Atlantic Low 
This one may have disappeared on the guidance for a while, with a number of false starts on the models about what would develop in the north central Atlantic, but with a stalled boundary, we finally had a mechanism for what is likely to be tropical genesis. Hard not to get a chuckle this morning as this one stands the best chance of breaking the drought during peak season.  

giphy.gif?cid=790b761152ae57431a9b2ea8ed

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611a150eeca2bb6b8784d

This one is worth an invest, and I lead with it because while it still has work to do (it's attached to a now decaying boundary) this one looks primed to develop. The caveat here is that everything has struggled in the Atlantic, but with a pocket of low shear and importantly--a more moist environment, it's likely to pick up a name. Ceiling TBD, but for 2022, this one looks pretty damn good. I think this could become a hurricane, which would be peak 2022. 

2. Invest 91L
Now we turn to our old and disappointing friend, Invest 91L. It's been trying, but hasn't found a way to organize effectively in large part due to a dry environment around it.  

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611911e0064ad929e3663

:lol: 

This is the MDR in late August, folks! My mocking aside, this does look organized enough to develop into a named storm, and as some of the guidance suggests, it may take a few more days and a different heading to allow for enough favorable conditions to get this one to go. Until then, we watch and wait. This one isn't a threat to land IMO, and probably doesn't even threaten Bermuda. 

3. East Atlantic Low
This one is looking better this morning, but it's about to run into a buzzsaw! 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611406ce6839319d5783c

A number of factors will take this seemingly promising wave more northwestward into a quick recurve, which will put it right into more (you guessed it) dry air and cooler SSTs. Not sure it can get a name, but here's hoping for my forecast. 

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The race is on in the Atlantic! 

Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. 

Place your bets!
 

Who will be the first NS?

Who will be the first hurricane?

91L?

32905815.gif?0.42889648303542827

Or

93L?

13326460.gif?0.8590680204893205

 

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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The race is on in the Atlantic! 

Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. 

Place your bets!
 

Who will be the first NS?

Who will be the first hurricane?

91L?

32905815.gif?0.42889648303542827

Or

93L?

13326460.gif?0.8590680204893205

 

Will either cross 60° west? Inquiring minds want to know lol

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56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The race is on in the Atlantic! 

Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. 

Place your bets!
 

Who will be the first NS?

Who will be the first hurricane?

91L?

32905815.gif?0.42889648303542827

Or

93L?

13326460.gif?0.8590680204893205

 

Which do you pick?

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14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Which do you pick?

Hmm…

I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum.

I think 93L will be our first hurricane. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…

I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum.

I think 93L will be our first hurricane. 

but will my myrtle beach trip be impacted ;) thanks for all you share friend!

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15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love this one. Models have coalesced around tropical genesis along a decaying boundary in the north central Atlantic. 

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b952c0efbdc6c28531f62
 

Still has work to do, but with a favorable environment, this should develop. I think this beats 91L to a name.

 

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hmm…

I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum.

I think 93L will be our first hurricane. 

:axe: 

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