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Monday, May 16, 2022 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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31 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Top of Mohawk mtn

https://ibb.co/k3mLRck

 

Edit: sorry I guess I don’t know how to imbed the picture.

 

Is that photo using HDR?

It has that 'HDR feel' to it... I like it...

I haven't been to Mohawk Mountain since maybe 2017 or 2018 but I think that I know exactly where you took the photo from...

 

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11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looks like im going to be hit hard.  Constant thunder and cloud to ground strikes to my south.  Watch my cam's for hail  www.bridgewaternhweather.com

Nice gusher there. Is your rain gauge plugged?

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6 minutes ago, radiator said:

 

Is that photo using HDR?

It has that 'HDR feel' to it... I like it...

I haven't been to Mohawk Mountain since maybe 2017 or 2018 but I think that I know exactly where you took the photo from...

 

I just got the new iPhone. I think it utilizes hdr. The lighting was pretty surreal up there.

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6 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

I just got the new iPhone. I think it utilizes hdr. The lighting was pretty surreal up there.

Here are some useful links to check out/explore

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/sfcoa.html

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_severeparameters

https://www.weatherwx.net/wp-content/uploads/severe_weather_checklist.pdf

http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html

Alot of convective forecasting comes down to trying to understand or visualize how convection will respond based on the surrounding environment. This becomes easier over time after lots of practice/experience. What also helps is doing analysis of previous events...especially higher end events to get a great visual of what ingredients are in place during those setups and then comparing to events which are smaller magnitude. 

Any questions on anything please ask!

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice gusher there. Is your rain gauge plugged?

Brian, good catch.  Actually just 20 minutes ago during the storm I looked at my display and it did not measure rain.  So something has to be caught in the spout.  I will clear it tomorrow and see what happened.  I have the stratus and we just had .70" in the passing storm.  More rain to come but we needed this drink.  Oh,  no wind, no hail but lots of cloud to ground strikes.  

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9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian, good catch.  Actually just 20 minutes ago during the storm I looked at my display and it did not measure rain.  So something has to be caught in the spout.  I will clear it tomorrow and see what happened.  I have the stratus and we just had .70" in the passing storm.  More rain to come but we needed this drink.  Oh,  no wind, no hail but lots of cloud to ground strikes.  

dry as a bone here.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Albany NY
540 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Litchfield County in northern Connecticut...

* Until 615 PM EDT.
    
* At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Torrington, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  New Hartford, Winsted and New Hartford Center around 550 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include West
Torrington, Torringford, Haight Vineyard, Mooreville, Nepaug,
Riverton, Kelly Corner, West Goshen, Beech Rock and Wrightville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

 

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The converging seabreeze(s) down here are lightning laced with isolated extreme rainfall (5-10")In/hr rates. Doesn't meet severe criteria but a collapsing cell occassionaly produces 30-40mph downbursts, and it's everyday. 
Enjoy your garden variety boomers.
Marine influence knocks down the storms in the NE, here it's the that boundary that sets them off, oh the irony.  

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m in the heart of this line now, decent drink but pretty tame winds and I’ve heard 2 decent rumbles of thunder.  Good luck east of the river but you may be disappointed if you like severe. 

Looks better down in CT, wonder if Kev sees some Hail to start?

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