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May Long range


StormchaserChuck!
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Impressive Omega block.

gfs_z500a_namer_31.png

Oh look, it evolves into this, another omega block with a cutoff low along the Atlantic coast.

This is probably not exactly how the pattern will transpire, but a strong signal for a generally blocky regime with a cutoff low remaining off the MA/SE coast across global guidance. Pretty wild.

gfs_z500a_namer_43.png

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32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

True?

 

Don’t know for sure either way, but wouldn’t surprise me in the least if this year the anomaly is calculated relative to the 90-20 norms vs 2014 calculated against 80-10 norms. And in absolute terms, this year wasn’t as cold. But that’s just a guess.

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2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Can one of the smart weather people explain why the low that ruins our weekend sits off the coast and appears to reverse and bring even more rain/clouds for the rest of next week?

 

1 hour ago, WeatherShak said:


Looks like high pressure parks off the coast for a few days- leaving the low no escape.

Also, a much stronger than normal ridge will develop behind the weekend low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and northeastward into southeastern Canada resulting in a NE flow over us going around the ridge than could be strong enough to retrograde the low back to the southwest. 

Side-note: While it's still early and SSTs are generally in the low 20sC off of the SE coast, save for the Gulf Stream with ~25C SSTs, I'd watch for signs of the low acquiring sub-tropical characteristics should the pattern play out as advertised.

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