Central/Southern Plains Severe Weather Palooza (4/29 - 05/05)

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

That cell south west of Wichita looks pretty good 

And it’s basically gone. Dry line just can’t get it done today. 

[CheeselandSkies]

59 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen this. Most guidance backed off of dryline storms in OK/southern KS until last minute, then brought them back. Only to lose them last minute as well. WoFS is looking pretty bad right now too. Almost all cu along the dryline is dissipating. One of the harder busts of my career, but it can be a learning experience. 

Reminds me so much of how 5/26/21 played out. Dryline target seemed to be uptrending throughout the day of, only to fail anyway.

[DanLarsen34]

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[DanLarsen34]

This storm is behaving a lot like the Wynnewood storm did several years ago. Think we’re about to see a cycle on it too.

[CheeselandSkies]

Of course...literally the minute I call bust and stop paying attention.

[CheeselandSkies]

Really strange behavior on radar...almost looks like the tornado moved north across the back end of the supercell instead of moving along with it.

[DanLarsen34]

This may very well have been a violent tornado. The motion in this clip from Reed Timmer is insane.

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[MUWX]

2 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This may very well have been a violent tornado. The motion in this clip from Reed Timmer is insane.

 

 

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Reed is going to get blasted for some of the driving he just did, but that is some absolutely insane footage. 

[Wmsptwx]

Jesus this thing was wicked.

[CheeselandSkies]

Embedded sup SW of TWX radar has had an impressive couplet at times over the last 20 minutes.

[DanLarsen34]

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[Powerball]

12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of course...literally the minute I call bust and stop paying attention.

It definitely hasn't been a bust for KS / NE, which that's where much of the action today was always expected to be.

The threat further down into OK was conditional.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

It definitely hasn't been a bust for KS / NE, which that's where much of the action tody was always expected to be.

The threat further down into OK was conditional.

I was referring to the Wichita area stuff apparently failing to become sustained/organized before total darkness, and the NE/KS border area stuff getting undercut by the cold front and clustering up before it could produce a long-track significant tornado.

[Powerball]

Another video of the Andover, KS tornado:

 

[Powerball]

It's been a long time since I can recall a tornado this photogenic in the Plains...

 

[Powerball]

 

[Powerball]

 

[Powerball]

 

[Quincy]

Prime example of a tail end Charlie storm going nuts right around sunset. Hope there weren’t any serious injuries. 

[Powerball]

Andover's about to get slammed again by a line of severe storms that has blown up along the cold front.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSC015-173-300230-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220430T0230Z/
Sedgwick KS-Butler KS-
901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK AND WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 900 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Potwin to Downtown Wichita, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Andover, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire, Goddard, Maize,
Benton, Downtown Wichita, Kechi, Eastborough, West Wichita, East
Wichita, Eisenhower National Airport, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell
Air Force Base, Jabara Airport and Oaklawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 9763 3778 9747 3791 9732 3791 9716
      3792 9715 3792 9703 3760 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 278DEG 33KT 3789 9707 3769 9734

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

CUELLAR

[DanLarsen34]

One of the craziest tornado videos you’ll ever see.

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[yoda]

 

 

[yoda]

 

 

[yoda]

PDS TOR warning for Butler and Greenwood counties in KS 

[Powerball]

Report on the SPC website shows golf ball sized hail was observed in Andover with the squall line along the cold front (Round 2).

[Powerball]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

One of the craziest tornado videos you’ll ever see.

 

 

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This would definitely make my cut for a 21st-century "Tornado Video Classics" compilation. There's so much HD footage being taken of almost every event now, it's sometimes hard to pick out what's really special. Not in this case.

[Sn0waddict]

41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This would definitely make my cut for a 21st-century "Tornado Video Classics" compilation. There's so much HD footage being taken of almost every event now, it's sometimes hard to pick out what's really special. Not in this case.

Go figure it’s Reed who gets it too. Incredible footage. 

[Torchageddon]

Even though I checked things a few hours ago I missed the historic tornado, fascinating that its behavior had characteristics to the Wynnewood EF4 and also had a likeness to it on the ground! Briefly it reminded me of the Andover tornado of 1991. How come there was only one post in here while it was actually in progress? Catch that many off guard?

https://twitter.com/Tornadof123/status/1520236918822567938?s=20&t=BQwSLNwFJdGf1CR72vaMFg

[yoda]

Could be a day 2 mod risk reading Broyles day 3 outlook discussion

 

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern
   and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage
   and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A
   marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of
   west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley.

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and
   central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet
   translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low
   will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front
   advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and
   the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma
   into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level
   moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with
   surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central
   Oklahoma into southeast Kansas.  Moderate instability will develop
   along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate
   during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the
   stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central
   Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with
   discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma
   north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon
   and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the
   late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward
   into the Ozarks.

   In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level
   jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central
   Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level
   lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.
   Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the
   more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically
   increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55
   knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the
   west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear
   will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at
   00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative
   helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a
   result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant
   supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind
   damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with
   supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments
   that organize.

   A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and
   early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and
   west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage
   should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening.

   ..Broyles.. 04/30/2022