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Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +33.57 today. That smashed the daily record of +14.27 from 2011.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.824 today.

On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.744 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.047 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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Holiday Weekend:     Fr.i/Sat. definitely NG.         Sun./Mon. still an open book.

At any rate, the GFS keeps trying to produce a tropical system for the last week's worth of runs and thinks it has it now with this bowling ball,  which has just followed a Donna-1960 like path all the way up the EC from Florida:

1654387200-rvn9tUUnJ9k.png

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Holiday Weekend:     Fr.i/Sat. definitely NG.         Sun./Mon. still an open book.

At any rate, the GFS keeps trying to produce a tropical system for the last week's worth of runs and thinks it has it now with this bowling ball,  which has just followed a Donna-1960 like path all the way up the EC from Florida:

1654387200-rvn9tUUnJ9k.png

The entire coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod is overdue for an impactful Hurricane strike (I don't really count Sandy, and definitely don't count Irene). Another stretch like 1938-1955 would be ugly.

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NWS Philadelphia/Mt.Holly's take on Fridays heavy rain and severe weather potential.

On Friday, the main synoptic system will begin impacting the local  
  region with deep southerly flow advecting considerable moisture  
  poleward from the Gulf of Mexico. There does not look to be a well- 
  defined cold front with this system, but it will probably have more  
  of a convective cold pool driven surface boundary slowly approaching  
  the area later in the day. Convection is expected to be ongoing  
  along this boundary as it approaches throughout the day. As  
  previously mentioned, the general trend in the latest guidance has  
  been overall slower with this progression, and thus I have slowed  
  the onset of the higher PoPs from west to east. 
   
  As far as impacts go, we are still anticipating that there will be  
  at least a marginal severe weather threat with any more robust  
  thunderstorms that are able to organize. Deep layer effective shear  
  values will be around 30-35 kts, which will support at least some  
  organization of convection, especially into the afternoon and  
  evening when surface based instability will likely be the highest.  
  Instability will likely not exceed 1000 J/kg or so, but there will  
  be plenty of forcing. So even a few hundred J/kg of instability will  
  be sufficient in supporting organized/sustained convection. Wet  
  microbursts with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be the  
  most probable severe weather threat. The deep stacked southerly flow  
  will support training and back-building of convection as well. With  
  PWats rising into the 1.4"-1.8" range (potentially record breaking  
  values for May 27th), heavy rain and thus flash flooding will likely  
  become an increasingly probable threat with this system somewhere  
  across the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. However, there is still  
  too much uncertainty regarding placement and timing of this potential  
  threat to get into the details. We are currently forecasting  
  widespread QPF around a half inch, but totals could locally exceed  
  one inch where ever convection trains over the same area. SPC 
  has introduced a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms in our 
  area for Friday and WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive  
  rainfall. 
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny. It will be cool for the season. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 74°

Cool weather will persist through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.0°; 15-Year: 75.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.8°; 15-Year: 77.4°

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The last 7 days of May are averaging 70degs.(62/78) or +3.

Month to date is  62.5[+0.2].       May should end near  64.2[+1.0].

Reached 67 here yesterday.

Today: 64-68, wind e. to s., clouds and sun, 56 by tomorrow AM.

As nutty as GFS Ts are, it is the EURO with a HW from 5/31---6/05-----about the time of the GFS TS.

57*(74%RH) here at 7am.          61* at Noon.      63* at 3pm.       64* at 4pm.

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Memorial Day weekend is on track to follow the post 15-16 super El Niño script. At least one day with rainfall. Best chance for rain this year appears to be on Saturday with improvement by Sunday or Monday. The other feature of 3 day Memorial Day weekends has been only 3 days reaching 90° out of the 18 days.
 

Memorial Day weekends at Newark with Memorial Day bolded

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
2021-05-29 52 0.58
2021-05-30 53 1.15
2021-05-31 76 T


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
2020-05-23 71 0.79
2020-05-24 68 T
2020-05-25 73 T

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
2019-05-25 70 0.00
2019-05-26 90 0.20
2019-05-27 82 0.00


 

Go


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
2017-05-27 74 0.00
2017-05-28 71 T
2017-05-29 61 0.14


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
2016-05-28 96 0.00
2016-05-29 88 0.03
2016-05-30 83 1.57

 

 

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44 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Yep, when it comes to early June heat there's 1925 and then there's everything else.

The benchmark for early June heat in our area was 2011 when the Newark suburbs hit 103°.

Data for June 1, 2011 through June 10, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101
NJ HARRISON COOP 99
NY BRONX COOP 97
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 96
NY MINEOLA COOP 96
NY WEST POINT COOP 95
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95
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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first few days of June  could be hotter than this past weekend was. 850mb temperatures topped out closer to +20C. The 850 mb temperature forecast to start June is +22 to +24C with a 592 -594 dm heat dome.

3ADBF62D-D673-47BD-B42F-AFFAAE8D2AB9.thumb.png.e044b2a283623084f79940379d471a59.png

  

Oof, work should be fun.  Next week we will be milling and paving 2 roads. Nice, hot and dusty milling,  and then laying blacktop a day later.  Hopefully my work dumptruck AC keeps up 

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19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, are the lack of these deep westerly flow events due to the high now pushing further north?

Also, for the past two springs in particular, we've had a long stretch of dry low humidity weather, and as a result my allergies came to an early :) Is that because of more spring blocking in the last two years?

 

Yeah, the extension of the ridge into SE Canada has been pushing extreme severe storms further north than usual for this time of year.

 

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Tomorrow and Friday will be unsettled days with some showers and thundershowers, especially on Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and then warm up on Friday.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.0° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +25.45 today. The old record was +19.32, which was set in 2018.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.735 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.814 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.742 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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