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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 81°

Tomorrow and Thursday will be somewhat cooler. The weekend could see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.7°; 15-Year: 72.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.8°; 15-Year: 73.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.3°

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This whole scale needs to be changed.  Ditch "enhanced"  What are the percentages on this?

Marginal should be 10%, Slight should be 20%, Moderate should be 30% and High should be 50%

If you really want to keep "Enhanced" move it ahead of Moderate and make it 40%, then you have a nice 10% increment scale from 10-50 percent.

The percentages are derived from risks involving tornado, wind, hail - a combination thereof or exclusively. It can get even more confusing with outlooks in day 2 and 3 forecasts. The categorical forecasts vary based on timeframe and perceived risk. Below are the charts from SPC.

 

 

understanding_categories.png

image002.png

image004.png

image006.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(60/81) or +6.

Month to date is  60.1[-1.1].       Should be  63.8[+1.3] by the 25th.

Reached 72 here late yesterday, 7pm, when there was finally a little shower.    The flooding threat amounted to 0.12"--- not even the normal for 1 day.

GFS is 98 on the weekend in CPK, but 77 at JFK.     Your pick.

59*(78%RH) here at 7am.         68* at Noon.      71* at 12:30pm, but clouding up.     74* at 2pm, good n. west wind keeping T's uniform---this kind of setup will produce 90+ all around here this weekend, but...........      78*(28%RH) at 4pm.       Reached 79*(26%RH) at 5:30pm.

 

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Long Island severe thunderstorms with straight line winds or hail usually peak in July and August. But some years like 2019 the peak is in late June.Tornados have a later peak from August to recently November. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=ugc&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC103&phenomena=SV&significance=W&cmap=Reds&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


4CC19072-70DD-448D-9304-52BB8E2F2DBF.thumb.png.aa927f3c8b9595db7c15895e48d639ac.png

 


AE807FF2-D79E-434F-AE0F-8CFF06225B14.thumb.png.80f248a603549174de9c5cb3dda1616c.png

 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

anything would be warmer than last year...hope its like 1986 or 1987...

Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168
1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140
1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163
1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158
1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0
1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0
1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0
1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0
2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0
1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2
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But for JFK it has 71!       28 degree difference in less than 15 miles?     GFS: The 90's Specialist.     No quality control here.

1652767200-Agt3ome7SG0.png

For me, it looks like this:       Wind is SW and should limit sea breeze damage.        Going to prepare for the beach and decide at the last moment probably.

image.thumb.png.e9138f1c4be9eaf82d6a2ff19910e124.png

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. 
 

92A23134-C996-4F8F-9637-F3515C2FCB67.thumb.png.02155cae78559ac9dc87044673890612.png

98AE8553-2102-4D88-AD81-81E261FE20F6.thumb.png.b8b084977604b6495792f41535244a0e.png98AE8553-2102-4D88-AD81-81E261FE20F6.thumb.png.b8b084977604b6495792f41535244a0e.png

 

i've noticed that it tends to overdo seabreezes in ne nj

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Slightly cooler weather will continue through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +24.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today.

On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.688 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.653 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. 
 

92A23134-C996-4F8F-9637-F3515C2FCB67.thumb.png.02155cae78559ac9dc87044673890612.png

98AE8553-2102-4D88-AD81-81E261FE20F6.thumb.png.b8b084977604b6495792f41535244a0e.png

 

The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. 

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168
1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140
1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163
1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158
1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0
1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0
1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0
1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0
2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0
1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2

Cant take a 103 temperature reading seriously lol.  The last time that happened was 2011.

 

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14 hours ago, CIK62 said:

But for JFK it has 71!       28 degree difference in less than 15 miles?     GFS: The 90's Specialist.     No quality control here.

1652767200-Agt3ome7SG0.png

For me, it looks like this:       Wind is SW and should limit sea breeze damage.        Going to prepare for the beach and decide at the last moment probably.

image.thumb.png.e9138f1c4be9eaf82d6a2ff19910e124.png

99 next Saturday? why is no one forecasting that?

also looks like more 90s for Memorial Day weekend!

do you have a percentage of cloud cover forecast for each day in that period too?

 

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. 

Nah the south shore will probably get close to 80, at least the western part of the south shore.

Might drop back later into the afternoon

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. 
 

92A23134-C996-4F8F-9637-F3515C2FCB67.thumb.png.02155cae78559ac9dc87044673890612.png

98AE8553-2102-4D88-AD81-81E261FE20F6.thumb.png.b8b084977604b6495792f41535244a0e.png

 

why are we going with the Euro?  Hasn't the GFS shown itself to be better this year?

 

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase during the afternoon or evening. Some showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 74°

The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.9°; 15-Year: 72.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 74.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.9°; 15-Year: 75.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(62/83) or +6.

Month to date is  60.5[-0.9].       Should be  64.1[+1.3] by the 26th.

Since I am near the water, I could get screwed this weekend.      EURO has JFK under 70 for the next 10 days!!!      GFS has record heat  on Sat./Sun., 99,98.     EURO is 80,89.     CMC is 91,93, but coolish every other day.   Problem with the post processing of the MOS is what is behind this---would be my guess.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today: 66-71, wind w., m. sunny till the early afternoon, rain by 3am tomorrow, about 60 tomorrow AM.

57*(59%RH) here at 7am.        65* at Noon.       69* at 3pm.      Reached 71* at 4pm.       62* at 7pm.       59* at 9pm.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Cant take a 103 temperature reading seriously lol.  The last time that happened was 2011.

 

Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens. 

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. 

The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ.

656FBBF8-C802-42A6-B40B-E77E8FFDD094.thumb.png.edb57cc69fb194d11a89bedea1571ea3.png

C85D4796-446B-48CA-9E36-B39521E05543.thumb.png.c09628db1255261db506bd62814bca53.png

 

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